Narendra Modi's Independence Day 2017 speech: PM is either ignorant or incorrigibly optimistic

Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Red Fort during his Independence Day speech today. (Screengrab: DD Live Stream)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered his fourth speech from the Red Fort on the Independence Day 2017 today. Historically, the Independence Day speeches have been considered as occasions to showcase the policies of the government.

PM Narendra Modi took the occasion this year to enumerate the achievements of his government. He talked about reforms including demonetisation and GST. But, it looked a bit immature to take credit for launching Mars Mission in nine months. The programme had taken shape during the previous government led by Manmohan Singh.

Narendra Modi also talked about GST but it was also a work in continuation. Demonetisation and surgical strikes were his own completely. Though, many may point that surgical strikes had been conducted in the past as well. But, then no one ever offered any proof before. Narendra Modi government made a bold move not to just own a surgical strike but to shout it aloud so that the message is heard clear and straight both within and without.

Former Prime Ministers HD Deve Gowda and Manmohan Singh at Independence Day celebrations at the Red Fort in New Delhi. (Screengrab: DD Live Streaming)

Narendra Modi talked about ushering a new India by 2022. His new India to have jobs, double income than the present for farmers - which would translate into at least twice as much earning for others as well given the nature and system of our economy, total sanitation, no corruption, no hatred, no filthy competition and almost everything that would make India an ideal nation and society.

Mahatma Buddha and Lord Rama also conceptualised such a society and nation respectively. No one is sure about Lord Rama's period but Mahatma Buddha tried this some 2,500 years ago in Bihar, where only recently a chief minister resigned from the post of chief minister to become the chief minister joining hands with a former chief minister with whom he fought an almost meaningless ego battle.

Even Mahatma Gandhi envisioned an India of his dream. He saw his dream shattering but still had hopes that it would not resurrect once the 'mad nations' woke from their slumber and stopped human slaughter. The Mahatma could not live long enough to endure the pain of his dream being crushed, trampled and consigned to garbage mounds by his own proteges.

Union Minister Smriti Irani at the Independence Day celebration at the Red Fort in New Delhhi. (Screengrab: DD Live Streaming)

For the New India of PM Narendra Modi's vision, his government needs to create 1.3 crore full time employment every year, healthcare facilities need to be modernised and made available 24x7 all the 365 days of the year, burden of judiciary should reduce so that the cases could be disposed in six months after filing, police should be able to complete investigation of a case in two-three months, more than 35 crore people need to get literate and educated, government schools should deliver high quality education across language barrier in every village and ward, Parliament should be debating in five years if the country needed a law dealing with rape as it would vanish from the face of India, women should face no discrimination in homes, at work and public places.

In 1947, a section of people thought with freedom their homes will become happy, corruption would end, police would behave, nepotism would end and suraj would come. BR Ambedkar thought after 15 years of quota, the Dalits would be able to cast away the burden of centuries. In 1974-75, a group of enthusiasts sought if the first freedom failed them another would not as it would be total revolution. In 2011, a handful Indians and TV channel studios made us believe that corruption would be the last things India and Indians want. Next year, similar bunch of street troopers tried to convince India that Indians won't stare at, stalk, harass, molest, sodomise, rape or brutalise a soul in future. So on and so forth. And, here 125 crore people stand waiting for another suraj, the New India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi deserves a salute for believing that India and Indians would bring in an India of his vision in next five years. Either he does not know his 125 crore people or his optimism has turned into an obsession without any cure.

PS: Do I need to underscore here that this blog is only a reflection of one of my brainwave?

Congress: A political outfit or political business of a family?

After Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s “well-orchestrated” dramatics over the ordinance on the convicted politicians, the politics has taken a curious turn over the issue. Rahul Gandhi may have wanted to distance himself from the Congress party and the UPA government by publicly denouncing an orchestra of the Congress core-group and the union cabinet thinking that the credibility of the party and the government is eroding, but in the process he has also inflicted some damage on his own credibility as a political leader. His Rambo-act on Friday at the Press Club of India in New Delhi reflects the politician within Rahul Gandhi and not a leader.

It would be foolish to think that Rahul did not know anything about the Congress and the government’s move to annul the Supreme Court order dated July 10th. The Supreme Court had  held that convicted MPs and MLAs would be ineligible to contest election if sentenced to more than two years’ jail term in a criminal case.

But, if Rahul really did not know about it, he proved himself an indifferent and pathetic parliamentarian as a bill to this effect had been introduced in the Rajya Sabha during the monsoon session after due clearance.

Or, if he knew yet let the party and government do what they wanted to do, he proved himself a politician not sincere in fighting criminalization of politics. And, on all counts, the theatrical appearance and castigation of the deeds of the government was an act of a politician, who was trying to do some damage control. In the process, however, he has exposed himself, his party and the government.

Let’s consider another if. Suppose, Rahul Gandhi was genuinely concerned and anguished at the attempt by his party and the government at shielding some of the convicted or to be convicted criminals among politicians, and he only reacted late gauging the public sentiment, which gave him courage to speak out in public against his party and government.

What does this convey?

Rahul’s stand is a public negation of the policies of the Congress president and his all-powerful mother Sonia Gandhi, who approved of the Ordinance on the convicted politicians to nullify the apex court order. If Rahul prevails, which seems to be the only option available before the government now, it would mark an end to Sonia regime in the party. But, this comes with a rider that the Friday’s storming the Sonia bastion of Congress by Rahul must not have come without her underlying approval and thus, an end to her regime with her approval.

So, Sonia appears to have approved of quite a few things in past one week: an ordinance to perpetuate criminalization of politics, putting credibility of the party and the government at risk, Rahul’s elevation to the super-politician level and an end to her own supremacy! Contrastingly incredible!

Friday also deliered some message to the Prime Minister, who is travelling abroad apparently on an important job. He is left with two options, either to withdraw the ordinance on convicted politicians and confirm what he said concluding his last foreign trip that he was ready to serve under Rahul. That he is actually serving under Rahul, who would be seen like the Super PM. Second option is to go down fighting after having faced so much political humiliation and seen audacious insubordination in full public view.

Moreover, Manmohan Singh's is not a standalone case. Some other senior leaders of the Congress party and ministers in the UPA government have complained of humiliation. But the question is, will these leaders make an attempt to salvage the prestige of the grand old party? Most unlikely. Will they come out and make Rahul fall in the line? Will the collective wisdom of the Congress leaders convince people that the Congress is political organization not political business of a family?

Manmohan Sounds Poll Bugle, Will People Listen?

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh presented his government's report card on Wednesday on completion of four years of staying in power. Adding his previous regime, the UPA government is in power for nine years. One thing is clear that no prime minister can be honest enough to do genuine critical analysis of his own government. Those were different days when former prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru came down heavily on his own ministers following allegations of nepotism and corruption. Now, it's all about cover-up business and making bold (at times foolishly bold) claims of one's own achievements. Manmohan Singh seemed one such exposed politician on Wednesday.

The Prime Minister chose to focus on four areas, that were key to him in patting his back. His "four key achievements: one, the improved performance of the economy; two, making the growth process more inclusive; three, delivery of better governance and better delivery of welfare and development programmes; and, four, improved relations with a changing and challenging  world" are now public. Singh insisted that his government has "taken our country forward on all these four fronts in the nine years".

At the face of it, the claims look erroneous. The claim of fast GDP growth does not hold water in the face of all reports of increasing disparity among the populace. The constantly high inflation especially of food articles in past more than four years betrays bad financial and monetary management of the country. The last year's GDP growth rate of less than five percent was attributed to a global phenomenon. The Prime Minister cited China's slowdown as collateral proof and also recalled a lower average growth rate during NDA regime. But, the economist-turned-politician failed to notice that India did not grow at the rate at which China grew and also not on the similar fundamentals of economy. Secondly, many economists believed that the first two years of UPA's nine-year rule benefitted from the policies of NDA regime. Moreover, can the government justify one failure with another apparent failure?

Manmohan Singh could have done well speaking the truth behind stagnating economy. He should have explained why his government is suffering from policy paralysis, why several infrastructural projects have been stalled, why investment projects are not taking off, why corruption has become a rule in his government and most importantly, why governance has been receding for four-five years.
 

The government's claim of making growth more inclusive is debatable. Many communities in India are sulking under the present regime. Tribals in the east and the north-east feel deeply alienated. It finds expression in the spreading network of naxal insurgency. The naxalism has successfully found foot soldiers in Assam for the first time since it started in late 1960s in West Bengal. The only state where naxal violence has been curbed is Andhra Pradesh but the state is embroiled in nothing less than what could be termed as a 'mini civil-war' with Telangana simmering to have its separate identity and Royalseema hoping to gain some lateral benefits. There is none to deny that Telangana has been mismanaged by the Manmohan Singh government.

Singh's third claim of better governance and ensuring welfare of people can be easily reviewed in the chorus of 2G, Coal, Defence, MNREGS and many other scams. Most of the scams were examined and verified by the Comptroller and Auditor General's office, which came under sharp criticism from the government. Thankfully, the judicial decisions have not gone against the claims of the CAG. Now, the same constitutional body's independence is reportedly being compromised with the UPA's decision to appoint defence secretary Shashi Kant Sharma as the next CAG of India. Sharma will be examining and auditing the deals that he cleared as the defence secretary as part of the UPA government's machinery. Combine this with reports suggesting government's neglect of intelligence gathering resulting in terror attacks climaxed in 2008-killings in Mumbai, and one will get a scary picture of governance and compromising condition of the welfare of people.
 

The welfare schemes of the government, chiefly under the right to education, the right to employment and proposed schemes under right to food and the right to health are all fraught with serious economic danger. The right to eduction has not helped improvement in quality education. The need of the hour is not simply bringing kids to school but to empower them with quality and competitive education. Only then will the teeming millions can take on the dominating world economies. The drop out rates and declining quality of education must be wrest immediately. For this to achieve the prime minister and his ministers should have worked in close coordination with the state governments but the politics prevailed over good 'welfare' sense.

Right to employment through MNREGS has only encouraged corruption and eaten up tax payers' money. Food security and health bills will aggravate the situation only. These two politically ambitious schemes will in all probability fall flat as there is an absolute lack of adequate administrative machinery to deliver the goods. The end result will be fleecing the tax payers, which include even those who may be the targetted beneficiary.

Finally, the Prime Minister feels that India's relation with the comity of nations has improved. This holds true only if one excludes everything except business. The neighbours constantly keep teasing India. China has made at least four serious incursions into Indian territories during UPA's rule, the latest being in Despang area, wherein Chinese forced India to compromise on border security vigil. Pakistan has not shown any intent of assuaging India's concerns. Bangladesh does not shy away from challenging India.

Nepal keeps pricking it and uses China threat to counter its southern neighbour. Sri Lanka has openly contested India's rights in the sea waters. India too has failed to grab the opportunities to cement ties with the island nation in recent past paving way for greater cooperation between Sri Lanka and China. India remained practically a mute spectator while Maldives plunged into a chaos. India has faced many diplomatic embarrassments at the hands of Italy, Argentina, Iran and a host of other nations in past nine years, a period which the Prime Minister chose to reflect upon. The only bright diplomatic spot that is visible on the UPA's face if nuclear deal with the US and subsequent approval by the nuclear suppliers group. But, the deal is still controversial and can be judged only in longer term.

Considering that the UPA-2 has entered into its final year, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's claims may not go down well with people, who can see through the veil of numbers and phrases. The UPA has sounded the poll bugle, it is now time for people to prepare for voting next year.

UPA's fact file: Bharat Smiling?

Politics is much like our lives. We try to look positive and vibrant whenever we decide to fight a gloom and strive to come out of it. The ultimate hope resides in prayers to god. In the case of politics, god is people, the voters, who, all the politicians, like mortal human beings, think can be fooled. The Bharat Smiling campaign of the UPA II, presumably the last of the UPAs makes one think on these lines. Millions of followers of Indian politics would immediately draw a comparison between the India Shining of  NDA regime and this one. However, the present ruling dispensation has vehemently denied that the latter is a caricature of the former.

The campaign in-charge and Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tewari claims that the India Shining campaign was a smug while Bharat Smiling is a humble one. The tag line for Bharat Smiling reads, "Many Miles We Have Come, But Many More We Still Have To Go'. An informed student of Indian politics would wish Tewari knew former prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru's liking for Robert Frost's composition, "Woods are lovely, dark and deep/ But, I have miles to go/ Before I sleep/ Before I sleep". Anyways, while UPA II claims Bharat to be smiling let's focus on some of the facts emerging from the wailing India.

India has many shades of reality. Politically and journalistically corruption seems to be the only and the biggest problem ailing the country. But if we bend our knees a bit and get a reasonably realistic view of ground situation, we would find more pressing problems like lack of viable employment, lack of quality education at affordable cost, lack of quality food to all and absence of adequate health machinery. Combine this with the exponential growth (in numbers) of aspiring youth and one will see a scary picture hanging across the length and breadth of the country.  

 

Economics and Employment

 

First, let's look at the economic reality of the country and see whether Bharat is really smiling.

Broadly speaking India achieved a growth rate of 4.96 percent in 2012-13 for its 1.23 billion people, who form the largest congregation of the poorest sea of humanity on the planet. Agriculture and allied sectors are contributing the least to the GDP signaling that largest chunk of population is either economically redundant or extremely inefficient. Manufacturing sector has not been giving enough hope for the redundant populace, who are anyways not skilled and trained for industries. Manufacturing sector though contributes over a quarter to the GDP, but finds itself in a whirlpool of government's policy paralysis. Services contribute nearly 60 percent to India's GDP, a sign of paradigm shift in development toeing the line of the developed economies. But, here it means that only a fraction of India has grown so much that it eclipses the rest. (Many believe that India is progressing and Bharat is trailing.)

Now, let's see the UPA's response and also contribution to this economic state. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme was launched between 2006, becoming fully operational in 2010. The MNREGS guarantees one hundred days of work to one person per family in a rural area. The official figures say that nearly twenty lakh rupees have been spent on the scheme till now. This might have brought UPA more votes in last parliamentary elections but it has not served country well. 

The Comptroller and Auditor General finds the scheme flawed in implementation (by states, though) upto 96% meaning that practically all the rupees spent on the scheme flowed into drains. Further, it has failed in creating the number of jobs it was expected to during its operation. Reports suggest that there has been a 26% decline in man-days of work hitting the dalits and the tribals the worst. Their employment status has declined by 47% and 41% respectively over the period of MNREGS operation. (The government's reply to Parliament) The overall rate of unemployment in India was 9.3% in 2012 and is expected to be 9.4% in 2013.
 

Education and Empowerment

 
The worrying employment scenario could be bettered with quality education and skill training. The UPA introduced the Right to Education making education compulsory for children of 6-14 years. But, recent reports from the ministry of human resource development clearly tell that the standard of education has gone down in the past decade and that the recent policies are responsible for this decline. Moreover, school drop out rates are also alarming for a country which fosters the largest mass of illiterate people. The drop out rates for class five is 30%, which increases to 85% in class eight. If the monumental right to education act has achieved merely this at the cost of more than two lakh crores of rupees. The country needs to put its working heads together. Higher eduction is no better. Many ministers including the present HRD minister at the centre have already cast aspersions on the ability of premier technical institutions in producing creative professionals.
 

Food (In)security

 

India is a nation of surplus production and hungry population. Hunger and Malnutrition report (HUNGaMA) released by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a couple of years ago highlighted the health of this ever growing nation. More 42% children were malnourished in 2011. The situation has not improved much since then. India can boast of a total food-grain production of 260 million tonnes and also of the theoretical availability of food-grain per capita at 444 grams (in 20112), but the ground reality is betrayed by various media reports of deaths caused by hunger every now and then. And, this could happen even in the busy city of Varanasi.

Meanwhile, politics is in full swing over the food security bill, which could well prove to be another MNREGS. The UPA government plans to fill the stomachs of 67 percent of Indian populace with the proposed food security scheme through its defunct public distribution system. The food for all scheme hopes to cover two-third of the entire population and is expected to tax the rest 1.25 lakh crore of rupees every year. This huge amount of tax payers money is at the risk of going down the PDS drains given that the system has inefficiency of 44 percent. One can imagine where the proposed scheme may be heading to. 

Providing wheat @Rs 2/kg, rice @Rs 3/kg and millets @Re 1/kg may sound very good for people only at face value, but it is, actually, bad management of a country which has one-fourth of the hungry people on the globe with number exceeding 230 millions. While the food production in India is breaking all records, the warehouses and store-houses fail to accommodate all the grains. Every year, lakhs of tonnes of foodgrains rot at several places in the country prompting the Supreme Court to direct the government in 2011 to distribute the grains among the poor.

 

Health

 

India has the dubious distinction of being the world leader in maternal and child mortality despite a booming health and hospital industry, and resultant highly acclaimed and appreciated medical tourism. The official records show that nearly half of India is undernourished. According to the World Health Organization's finding India annually records the maximum number of deaths of pre-term babies, malnourished and stunted children, anaemic women, children with birth defects, TB infections and MDR-TB cases, rabies deaths, new leprosy cases and oral cancer.

On the other hand, the country is heading to become the diabetes and dementia capital of the world in near future. The basic cause for all this is attributed to very low public spending on health. This explains why private hospitals have mushroomed all over the country, but quality treatment is still out of the reach of general masses. The government's expenditure on health is 3.9% of the GDP, which is lesser than that in even Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Right to information

 

Amid the gloomy picture, the UPA government can really boast of having given the right to information to people by passing an act in 2006. It is, however, altogether a different story that the same instrument has proved to be Frankenstein's monster for the UPA. The Act has exposed the not only the UPA government but many state governments as well. The UPA bosses understand the predicament of this Act much better now. This explains why most of the ministries do not provide complete information to the office of the central information commissioner.

According to one estimate, the rate of default at the ministerial level in the UPA government as to replying to RTI queries is over 30%. So, with an apparent intention of slaying its own angel, RTI, the UPA is hoping that the electors in India will look at Bharat smiling and refuse to see through the game.

Last but not the least, consider this. 35.5% India still lives without electricity; the Transparency International ranks India at 94th among 174 nations on corruption perception index; large portions of farmland in the country awaits its share of green revolution; the area of farmers' suicide continues to widen and comity of nations led by China, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh continues to ignore India's interests, notwithstanding, the UPA managers expects (may be like an ostrich) Bharat to be Smiling!

Understanding FDI in Retail in India

The decisions taken by the Manmohan Singh government in last cabinet meeting have evoked sharp and varied reactions from different quarters. One of the long debated and perhaps equally awaited decisions has been relaxing the norms for FDI in retail, both single brand and multi-brand. The voice of dissent seems louder than the assenting one. The market, however, has responded positively with stock market beginning to fly north. But, the two contrasting behaviour or reactions to the decisions taken by the UPA government apparently killing the bug of policy paralysis have left ordinary people confounded. Confusion is over the nature of the FDI in retail and its impending impact on Indian economy and employment scenario.

Let’s first understand the nature of FDI in retail. The foreign capital can come into India either in collaboration with a home player or via single handed investment by a global player. The government has relaxed the norms for both. It has allowed FDI in multi-brand retail upto 51% and single brand retail 100%, albeit with certain conditions.

Retail is a lucrative business in India as the industry is valued at over USD 450 billion. Interestingly, 90% of it is controlled by unorganized small and medium scale traders. They fear that the big organized corporate retailers would ruin the prospects of the age old profit making gallawallas. However, the government argues that the entire scheme will benefit bot the producers, that is, farmers and the consumers, that is, the aam aadmi. It also says that the move will create more employment in comparison to the job creation by traditional retailers. Moreover, the government allays the fear of elimination of traditional retailers.

The initial reactions from the economic experts are somewhat positive. But, many believe that in the long run neither the aam aadmi nor the farmers will be benefitted. The argument here is this; the global retail giants would have their monopoly in the Indian market in few years from now and then they would manipulate procurement price while dealing with the farmers and selling price while selling the articles to the consumers, the aam aadmi.The answer lies in the realm of future.

The union cabinet has put certain significant conditions for the FDI in retail. It says that only those players will be allowed to operate in India, who will invest a minimum capital of USD 100. Secondly, retail outlets by foreign players can only be opened in the million-plus cities. It effectively means that only 35-40 cities would be entitled to have an FDI-based retail outlet. The state governments can, however, make some amendments to make ineligible cities eligible. Thirdly, the states are not compelled by the centre to give licence to such stores under their respective shops and establishment acts. So, if a state government does not want to have a Walmart store or a Best Buy store, it won’t have one.

However, this argument of the centre that the latest decision is only an enabling policy and the states will have the final authority in this matter looks misleading. If states decide not to issue licence to any such player, it will be in direct conflict with the government of India’s commitment of ‘national treatment’ to investing countries. India has signed the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPAs) with 83 nations. 72 such agreements have already come into force and according to the information available with the official websites of the government, remaining are in the process of being implemented. This commitment of national treatment means that if one store is allowed in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat can not say ‘NO’ to that store if it applies for a licence there. One such instance has happened in Kerala where the matter was decided by the court in retail chain’s favour.

The government has argued repeatedly that inviting foreign capital was the last but the most required resort lest India slipped into deeper economic crisis comparable only to Eurozone crisis and the balance of payment crisis of our own in 1991. Moreover, it also says that adequate protection has been given to small traders. The global retailers will have to bring at least USD 100 million to be able to open a store in India with 30 percent of the capital going into creating basic infrastructure. And, such stores can only be opened in a million plus cities, numbering just over 35.

But, here government has failed to satisfy the people as it has shied away from coming up with figures suggesting as to how many jobs will be created annually should global retailers come over here while giving a comparison as to how many local retailers and their employees would lose their jobs.

The opponents of the FDI in retail policy fear that the global players will change the contour of Indian markets and make it skewed rendering many jobless and wealthless. The age old truth is that the markets have been the chief source of wealth generation and livelihood for many. Millions of retailers, traders and vendors make a living off the markets in India. And, this is precisely the reason which will attract global retail capital to India, and obviously they will work towards creating their own wealth. They will analyze before investing as to whether there will be net gain in wealth should they come to India, which may be the net loser in that case. If and when this happens, the local markets would end up serving the interests of a few multinationals. There is also possibility that the multinational retailers would restrict farmers/ producers access to market on one hand and manipulate prices of commodities on the other.

A recent research by researchers at IIM-Ahmedabad suggests that the globalization of retailers has not succeeded. “A study of top 250 global retailers reveals that 110 of them operate in single local home country. 175 retailers operate in less than 5 countries, mainly neighboring countries. Only 50 retailers operate in more than 10 countries. Only 36 of them have entered into China since the opening up of retail sector in late 1990s. Out of these, 17 retailers are already present in India. Therefore the scope for entry of global retailer entry into India is limited,” says the research.

So, the FDI in retail in India is still an inconclusive matter and most of its aspects can only be understood in future.

Anna: From Movement To Agitation

(Reproducing the article that I wrote for Merinews yesterday)

The British ruled over India for about 190 years during which they sustained what they believed the biggest jolt to their rule in the form of Revolt of 1857. Historians, now, say that the revolt of 1857 failed to live upto its promise because of its inherent weaknesses, biggest being internal dissensions. And, the British continued to rule for another 90 years. There seem to be a parallel in Anna’s movement for Lokpal Bill which is evidently directed against the present UPA government.

It was only last year, when the entire nation made beeline behind an old man, who finds Gandhism thrust upon him. Anna Hazare has tried to emulate the Mahatma, but despite his personal integrity and grit, his movement has all the signs of frittering away and waning. People of the country are no longer moved by his call for fight against corruption. The government prepares for his call for fast, agitation and mass gathering, but somewhere within, it knows that Anna is more like a spent force now.

There are three important components of the Anna Movement, Anna, himself, his Team and people. Anna, first. The supposed Gandhian leader took up the cause floated by India Against Corruption and championed it and on the way to mercurial popularity he expanded his arena of fight from Maharashtra to cover entire India. He was clearly swayed by the volumes of support that he got from the people of this country, who felt that a new Gandhi had emerged to take on the might of the government, which had been disconnected from the people it governed. People’s anger found a genuine expression in Anna’s call to stand against corruption. Similar emotion had already been experimented successfully in Bollywood through films like Lage Raho Munna Bhai, where people clapped when an old man, a retired school teacher embarrasses a government official to secure his pension.

People are fed up with the all pervasive corruption for long now and Gandhianised Anna gave hope to them. But, somehow, Anna Hazare failed to keep that mass support intact. One has to accept this as Anna’s inherent weakness. He is no Gandhi. People failed to realize this and their expectations of Anna remained so high that he could not have lived upto. He lacks the organizational skill and the understanding of public mood of the Mahatma. Also, Anna Hazare has not been consistent in his speeches and actions over past one and a half-year, which is so un-Gandhian. This drifted the masses away from him and his movement.

Anna’s team is, at its best, pulling in different directions. Allegations of nepotism and dictatorial attitude have been the biggest obstacle in accomplishing the task that the team has taken unto itself. Chief architect of the Team Anna, Arvind Kejriwal has, somehow, alienated all colleagues but a few. Even Anna Hazare does not seem to be in sync with his team all the time. This has exposed an organized bunch of activists to the ruthlessness of the government. Also, the allegations against Kiran Bedi of malpractices and of having communal tinge against the team have not done any good for it. The inevitable result has been loss of credibility of Team Anna among the masses.

On their part, people have also behaved in an intriguing manner. All of a sudden, when the middle was rising, the masses in India rallied behind Anna Hazare, giving hope to the old wise man. Anna mistook this momentary exuberance of people as their readiness for a long drawn battle against the government. This was not. The hope of Ramlila Maidan in Delhi, the political capital dashed in the Azad Maidan in Mumbai, the commercial capital. It also served the Team Anna a clear message that people cannot sacrifice their economic/commercial interests for some wayward political gains. This is precisely why and how Anna’s anti-graft movement became a pro-lokpal agitation. The coming days, beginning today, are likely to follow the same pattern.

National Shame: Hunger Floors India

National Shame! This phrase seems to have turned into a fad with every
intellectual debate in the country. To some, humiliating defeat of
Team India is matter of national shame, to some others, corruption
(backed by 2G, CWG, NRHM, Adarsh and other scams) is the real national
shame and if Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is be believed, hunger or
malnutrition of children is the national shame. But then, there is a
general feeling that the prime minister's view on hunger is not taken
seriously in the government. Some even suggest that given his current
focus on bookish economics, the prime minister does not seem to be
attaching much significance to his own observation himself.

While the defeat of Indian cricket team in Australia rankles in the
eyes of cricket's nationalistic fans, but that debacle is a debacle of
opulence and does not fit to be called a national shame. The 2G and
other scams are like hills in the island of corruption that emanates
from the rich and powerful. And, at a certain level it lacks 'national
appeal'. But, as per Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's own admission 42
percent of children are malnourished and hence, hunger affected. It
means that almost every second child in the country is a victim of
hunger. Obviously, the cloud of hunger and malnutrition looms large
over the entire nation.

This is a mind-boggling figure even to think of especially in the
backdrop of the fact that India has a population in excess of 121
crore and that we are adding more than a crore to the core population
every year. This means that the nation is adding more than 42 lakh to
the existing bunch of hunger affected children every year. And,
according to yet to be finalised data of 2011 Census, there are 16
crore children aged 6 or below. If we add to this figure the
population aged upto 14, the entire figure comes upto more than 35 %
of 121 crore Indians. So here, we have the third most populous
‘nation’ in India that is dominated by hunger and hence, underweight.
This is the story, when we think of Indians below 14 years of age,
leaving aside their elderly cousins, who are also in millions. This
contradicts the very growth theory of an emerging India. May be, India
is progressing in regression.

The Prime Minister was quoting the first ever report on hunger and
malnutrition (HUNGaMA) in the country. The report is based on a survey
conducted by the Naadi Foundation in 112 districts, predominantly
rural across nine states. It should also be borne in mind that the
survey studied approximately 73, 000 households (only). A bigger
survey may throw bigger shock. It goes without saying that we are
producing a feeble generation in a nearby future.

It has been observed the world over all through the period of recorded
social history that weak breeds more in his effort to become strong
(unity is strength). For poor, more children are like life insurance
policies. India has thrown, perhaps, the best example of this
demographic trend, outside Africa. Despite being the first nation in
the world to introduce a family planning scheme under (educated, rich
and aware) Prime Minister JL Nehru in 1951, the nation registered the
most voluminous rise in its population decade after decade. The family
planning centres got converted into a family expansion centres as
saving life of people is always to preferred to prevent a life taking
form. Poor people have been the largest contributor to population,
ignorance, poverty and resultant hunger.

HUNGaMA REPORT
. 42% children are underweight
. 93.7% mothers can’t give required nutrition to their newborns
. 51% newborns don’t get colostrum
. 66% mothers did not go to schools
. Only 11% wash hands before meals
. Only 19% use soap after using toilet
. India’s malnourished children exceed entire population of the US

The HUNGaMA report itself says, that 93.7% of some 74,000 mothers
surveyed said that they could not feed their children with more
non-cereal nutrition for they could not afford it. Incidentally, more
than 66% of the mothers did not go to schools. So, there is a definite
connection between poverty, education and hunger. The report itself
gives some notable examples. To quote just two would be enough here.
One, nearly 98.5% of the surveyed family had access to soap, but less
than 11% knew that washing their hands before meal can improve their
health; only 19% used soap for cleaning after using the toilet.
Second, 51% of newborn babies were denied mother's first milk,
colostrum as mothers did not consider it good for the newly born
children. This is nothing but lack of education (not literacy that the
government's figures flash every now and then) and awareness.

There are plethora of schemes being run by the government aimed at
improving nutrition and health of disadvantaged groups devoid of
employment, education and access to basic needs of a civic life. One
such scheme that found mention in prime minister’s ‘national shame’
speech was Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) Scheme. The
ICDS was launched in 1975. If the prime minister has to declare
malnutrition and hunger among children as national shame, is it only a
failure of the ICDS and other such schemes. Isn’t it a failure of
governance, which could not provide basic health to the nation in last
almost 65 years in general and 37 years in particular? And, isn’t this
a national shame for a prime minister?

The primary cause of hunger and malnutrition is poverty caused by
various kinds of unemployment or under-employment due to lesser number
of jobs in comparison to work force, lack of opportunity to work or
lack of competence (including education and training) on part of the
workers to get access to the limited options to work. Whatever may be
the reason, the result haunts the nation collectively. Poverty breeds
hunger, and hunger keeps victim population uneducated and ignorant,
which again lead to unemployment, poverty and hunger. The cycle is
complete and remains in motion for eternity. The prime ministers come
and go, but the national shame will be there to greet every incumbent,
if a course correction is not done, right now.

Food Security Bill: How Secure Is It?

The Food Security Bill is now before Parliament. The Bill aims at providing food and nutritional security to the millions of Indians. In spirit, the legislation is well aimed at wiping out hunger from the face of the second most populace nation, which has the highest number of hungry, malnourished, under-nourished population in the world. The objective of the NAC-prepared Bill is also noble because India still suffers from most basic type of poverty with almost 74 percent of children being anaemic. This bill may help fighting this. But, the food bill has raised many an eyebrow of experts.

The critics claim that the food security bill is the worst kind of pork barrel populism. The timing of the food bill suits the political ambitions of the ruling UPA with important assembly elections just round the corner and a general election is just over 2 years from now and for which tempo has started to build up. At this time, opposition is coming particularly from those states which either have a long way to go for the assembly polls or are comfortably placed vis-à-vis their political battle with the Congress or its partners in the UPA. Notable among the opposing states are Tamil Nadu under AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa, Odisha under BJD chief Navin Patnaik and Bihar under JD-U leader Nitish Kumar. The states are not ready to cough up for a project that the UPA or the Congress would take credit for in future polls.

The food security bill which aims to cover nearly three-fourth of the rural population and almost half of the urban has some problems. First, it just extends existing programmes, which have proved beyond doubt too inefficient and corrupt to fill the empty stomach of our impoverished populace as well as the fattened bellies of greedy politicians and officers.

Another problem with the food security bill is that there is a question of affordability with states making it clear that they would not spare their funds for a populist programme of the Congress party being thrust upon them at the behest of party president Sonia Gandhi, under whose leadership, the National Advisory Council prepared the Food Security Bill and the UPA is trying to implement. Also, the states are wary of being this pet programme of Sonia Gandhi being put into place totally on central finance. This is the reason why Jayalalithaa has said that the welfare schemes should be left to the respective state governments citing federal nature of Indian polity/ Constitution. No matter, if the states conveniently ask for similar schemes if those suit them.

The UPA's food bill plan will push the food subsidies to over Rs 94 thousand crores per year. Centre's finances are already in bad shape and the central government can't afford just to keep spending as it would further not only burden the state exchequer but will also help prices going further north. This may, in turn, put pressure on the UPA government, which has itself been advocating cut in subsidies of all kinds including those being given on food items through Public Distribution System. But, at the same time opting for economic prudence by cutting down subsidies would provide cash to the UPA government, but might cost votes, which the Congress may not be prepared for. So, the Food Security Bill remains contentious on both accounts of security-- one of hungry millions and also of the Congress-led UPA government.

2G Scam: Manmohan Presides Over Corruption

Corruption has coexisted with governance since time immemorial. India has witnessed royal corruption throughout its history of administration. Favouritism and manipulation have always kept the stirred up the recipe of politics in the country. So, it was nothing new the the two successive UPA government resorted to the same age old (mal)practice of governance. And, there are many, including the public perception, saying that the Manmohan Singh's government is the most corrupt government post-Independence. The allegation does hold some water. Manmohan Singh's government has seen scams after scams at a pace that had been unprecedented. The NREGS scam, the NHRM scam, the CWG scam, the cash for votes scam, petroleum scam, the Air India scam etc etc and above all the 2G spectrum scam.

Let's focus on the 2G scam with a general background of the spectrum that finds itself in the centre of a huge controversy. Spectrum is an invisible band in atmosphere. It behaves in a certain way depending on the radio character of the waves passing through or hitting it. The scientists, say at ISRO or DRDO, spend crores of (tax payers') money to understand its behaviour in different bands and then they develop mechanism to use the bands or spectrum in the sky for all types of communication. Once created, the band is available for all but for costly technology it is controlled by govt through laws. The government has its own mechanism to let people derive benefit from this discovery made out of their money paid to the government through taxes. The mechanism involves an interface, we can call it telecom service providers or big corporate houses. They are given licenses to use a certain space in the spectrum (by means of frequencies) for operating their business of telecommunications. They provide service to people and then charge money for the same. Interestingly, people pay again for using something they have already paid for its creation! But, this is how governance goes.

In 2G scam case, the government had distributed band widths among the telecom companies on the basis of first come first serve principle. Such a principle is good for things that hold no price. The government, including the previous regime under Atal Behari Vajpayee, considered spectrum as just invisible object and is of no value (conveniently) ignoring the well known fact that the companies will mint money by facilitating chats among people. Auction was another option before the government, but it preferred to consider the spectrum created after investing people's money as an ordinary object. Just to digress, I would like remind people of the power of auction by recalling the same at the IPL auction. Had the government resorted to the second option, it might have recovered a good part of the investment made out of tax payers' money or might have afforded to give some relaxation to the populace by announcing some tax relief to them.

But, when alter things (agendas) prime the considerations, even the most common wisdom takes the back seat. The same thing happened with the 2G spectrum allocation. And, the CAG of India calibrated that the process or the dereliction of duties by the government has had cost the nation, the tax payers an income of about Rs. 1.76 lakh crore. Now, this was a huge amount that the collective wealth of the nation was deprived of. Government argues that the CAG calculations are not sound and whatever loss was incurred to the exchequer was only imaginary or virtual. The government did not have the money in the first place, which the CAG talked about. True, that the government never had that money in question. But, it is also true that the government was denied to have that amount of money by those running the government. But, then again, the people running the Manmohan Singh government are not honest enough to admit that they caused the nation a loss to the tune of what calibrated by the CAG, the most authentic audit body in the country.

Two things are more shocking in the entire episode. One, that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh let all this happen while every decision was approved by his cabinet. Secondly, Manmohan Singh is widely hailed as an able economist but surprisingly, he presided over the greatest loot of virtual money in India during his tenure as the Prime Minister. The changing organizational structures of the 2G spectrum allottees (companies) betray either the short-sightedness or culpability of the Manmohan Singh government. The latest secret note (which was seen and approved by Pranab Mukherjee) from the finance ministry to the PMO and former telecom minister Dayanidhi Maran's letter to the prime minister have broken the shield of defence of the entire UPA machinery.

In this context, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is holding an all important meeting tonight, ironically in the United States. Pranab Mukherjee's tussle with P Chidambaram is well known in the inner circle of the UPA establishment. But, ever since the spat came out in the open over the issue of 2G scam has eroded the thin crust of credibility to this government. Pranab Mukherjee has sought and got couriered (as reports suggest) a bunch of files related 2G spectrum allocation from his ministry all the way to New York. This meeting between the two topmost leaders of the country on perhaps the biggest scam at venue outside the country speaks volume about the mess that the UPA government presently finds itself in. The Prime Minister and UPA chairperson, Sonia Gandhi must be making all efforts to keep the 2G taint away from their respective offices. It is really tough on the economist and presumably honest prime minister to preside over perceptibly the most corrupt government ever.

Libya, Anna and India

Another authoritarian regime is about to fall apart for ever. The history is unfolding in Libya. People may call them rebels who raced into Tripoli meeting practically no resistance from Muammar Gaddafi's forces, who had sustained the crest fallen leader for 42 years. Euphoria soon engulfed all. Residents merily mingled with the fighters in celebrations signalling their victory at Green Square in capital, Tripoli. While, Gaddafi is hiding at an undisclosed location and pleading with people and forces to safeguard his regime. But, when the commander is fleeing, it's only foolhardy to believe that his forces will stand any ground in the battlefield. Here, the entire nation has turned into a battlefield. Even, the heir apparent, Gaddafi's son has been captured. Both, Gaddafi and his son, Seif al-Islam face charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court at Hague in the Netherlands.

Now, the rebel forces have a huge task of setting the house in order. It seems that they are right on the money, at least in the capital. They have been reported to be setting up checkpoints in the capital to facilitate administration. This does give a very positive sign of organization on the part of the rebel forces.

The fall of Tripoli to Libyan rebels should serve as the final alarm to the leaders worldwide. People are exasperated, angry and have lost faith in the current mindset of governance as it has failed to deliver requisite services and facilities to them. The world economic order has widened the gap between the haves and have-nots. The governance seems to be patronizing the haves world over and the largest chunk of population has been rendered as have-nots though they toil the most to make their both ends meet. This explains the anger everywhere irrespective of the categorization of the country on IMF and World Bank's chart ot LIG, MIG or HIG countries.

India is no exception. The Indian government must not test patience of its populace any more as the patience is already on its wane in the country, where even handsome earners can't sustain for 3-4 months if money supply stops. Country is getting richer, but the nation poorer. Unimaginable support to Anna Hazare is a live evidence of the phenomenon. Libya must be the final wake up call for the government. India can't afford to become an Egypt or a Libya.

India@63: 5,000 Years Old

It was again an annual day today (August, 15) which was full of patriotic talks, internet chats, political speeches and rhetorics of India being young at 63. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made it more than obvious as to what does this day mean to people he represents. I would like to draw attention to Manmohan Singh's indifference to the Red Fort ceremony that once captured the imagination of the prime ministers and people alike. As he pulled the rope to unfurl the Tri-colour, a flag that symbolizes Indian brand of patriotism, he forgot even to look up at the Tiranga in salutation. He was more concerned about the business next in hand, that is, to read the speech text given to him. This also explains why he does not care about the programmes and policies after putting them into effect. He forgets to see whether the policies are producing the results they were originally meant to.

Whatever, I was talking about India turning 63 today. I have a serious objection to this concept. To me it's an insult to all those who contributed towards shaping and making this nation but worked in pre-1947 age. If my knowledge of Indian history is correct then the country had a very developed and flourishing urban civilization some 5000 years ago. And, the name "India" owes to none but this very civilization known to us as Indus Valley Civilization. Also, some 9000 years ago, the old India had a well established village community based on settled agriculture at Mehrgarh (Pakistan). To me, calling India a nation just 63 years old is not correct and it betrays the colonial hangover on the Indian psyche. It denounces everything that was Indian before 1947. India did not begin to breathe in 1947. It was very much in shape much much before that.

The known limits of Indus valley civilization is Shortughai near Oxus river to Daimabad in the Deccan. It could have been wider than that as we lack knowledge about the rest. During Chandragupta Maurya and Ashoka India was very much in shape. In middle ages the greatest emperor of India, Akbar the Great and Aurangzeb ruled over India that was bigger than what its present form. Colonial India was certainly divided and divisive.

But when India was freed from foreign rule, the colonial rulers made it believe that it is a New Nation. It can not sustain on its own. True, economically India was lifeless for all practical purpose. But it was not new, rather older than its colonial rulers. But, somehow they convinced the Indian leadership that India lacked courage, spirit, capability and most of all confidence to walk on its own feet, just like an infant can not do anything on its own.

So, now having known that India did not born in 1947, I just can not buy the statement and the argument for it that India is 63. This is ridiculous and an affront to the great civilizations that the country nourished in its past. I hope a civilization, a nation, a people who are at least 5000 years old will not be insulted by terming them 63 year old which need other's help to stand upright.

Celebrating Independence Day is good. A day chosen for the occasion is also good. But that day should be celebrated in a way to remind us that if we stand divided outsiders will take advantage of it to impose a new form of colonialism. This day should keep us beware of such a situation.

Happy Independence Day!