Kashmir: Militants, Panchayat, Pakistan and Problem



Two incidents or coincidences pertaining to Kashmir problem have brought back the centrality of the long standing dispute between India and Pakistan, as well as among the political regime and people in the country into focus. The first set of incidents is rather disturbing as it has thrown the democratization of Kashmiri politics completely out of gear. Lashkar-e-Toiba militants have threatened the Panchayat leaders and carried out the threats by killing Sarpanches and Panchayat members in the valley forcing more than fifty resignations within a couple of days. The state government has clearly failed to infuse confidence among the elected representatives that it is equipped to deal with the militants, on one hand and that it can provide security to all including the Panchayat leaders, on the other. Fear, confusion and blame game have taken firm roots in Jammu and Kashmir.

Second incident is not at all surprising but looks part of the same strategy, ostensibly formulated across the border. While democracy takes a backseat in the Kashmir valley, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari has raked up the issue of self determination by the people of Kashmir. Zardari has reiterated Pakistan’s support to Kashmir’s separatists. Incidentally, the intelligence and security agencies, and politicians have pointed fingers at the Pak-based LeT, generally supported by Pakistani establishment, for the recent killings of Panchayat members in the Kashmir valley.

These two separate looking developments throw a pattern, which many, including this author, cannot deny. This warrants rewinding tapes of time and taking a look at the origin of the K-issue.

(Hereunder, I am reproducing a piece written (by me and rejected by a reputed journalist of a very reputed news organization) long back in 2004-05. But, somehow, I find it relevant today. I agree that were I to write this again, I may improve its structure a bit.)

Kashmir  ……. whenever this word is uttered, a part of our conscience and sentiment gets stirred up. We start feeling like having been cheated. We become staunch nationalists. We get angry and confused. Ironically, we seldom have a real understanding of the problem called, Kashmir, but we feel deeply about it.

                               Whether we wish it or not, whether we like it or not, it’s a fact that in this age of global terrorism the problem of Kashmir is more like global issue. All the five so-called major powers of the world are directly or indirectly interested and to some extent involved in it. The U.S. and Russia (erstwhile U.S.S.R.) have been interested in it since the days of cold war. For that they have had their own understanding of the international milieu and hold-sharing game. Although China has never expressed anything explicitly but on every bilateral platform sharing with India or Pakistan it has shown some concern about Kashmir. As for the U.K. everyone agrees that the Kashmir problem is a legacy of British colonialism.

                            When the British withdrew from India, three states were ostensibly born: India and Pakistan on the basis of the infamous two-nation theory, and Jammu and Kashmir. The ruler of the third entity, i.e. Kashmir decided not to go along communal lines and declared his state as independent to preserve its composite culture and life-style. Or, may be, he did not want to give up his royal and princely character. Maharaja Hari Singh was willing to join neither India as he felt his majority Muslim subjects would not like joining a Hindu-majority nation, nor Pakistan, which as a Hindu he was personally averse to. On the other hand, Pakistani leader Muhammad Ali Jinnah coveted the Himalayan kingdom, while Indian leaders Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru hoped that the kingdom would join India. That is why Hari Singh thought of making Jammu and Kashmir an independent nation, and did not make his decision by August 15th to merge with either.

Anyway, the result was the same, i.e. the birth of three different states or nations for that matter. Though, all were not admitted into the U.N.O. as separate entities. But then who knows, had the tribal invaders mixed with the Pakistani army not invaded Kashmir, it would have emerged as a separate nation. And, our nationalist feelings for Kashmir would not have developed even. But that was not to be and India fought three wars (excluding 1971-war) and hundreds of skirmishes, without getting any solution. However why the able leadership of the two countries could not reach to a solution is itself a mystery.
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                              Take a look at history. Pakistan sponsored militia-invaded Kashmir in September 1947 under the guidance of Major General Akbar Khan of Pakistani Army. This was an unbearable shock for the King of Jammu and Kashmir, Hari Singh.  He did not have enough means to protect his state or himself. At that time, the King did not have too many options to turn to. After hurried deliberations, the King asked the Indian government to come to his rescue. Interestingly, the Indian leadership headed by Pt. Nehru and Sardar Patel did not accept the request immediately. They first asked the King to sign a treaty for merger with India saying that similar treaties had been signed by other princely states. This treaty with the King is known as the Instrument of Accession.

                                                   The Instrument of Accession was signed in October 1947.  And, only after that India took the task of protecting Kashmir, rather India. Indian forces landed on the territory of Kashmir. But by now Pakistan backed forces had occupied almost one-third of Kashmir. Here, behaviour of the Indian leadership looked quite baffling.

                                                India decided to protect the capital of Kashmir and the princely house there. It did not wish to push Pakistani forces beyond Kashmir, by now the territory of India. Considering the comparative strength of the troops, India could easily have driven out Pakistanis forces and thus nipped the Kashmir problem in the bud itself. This was a fatal blunder committed by new India. We need at first to accept this with an open and non-maligned hearts. It is difficult to ascertain that who was responsible for this decision. May be, the logic for this happening lay in the fast changing history of India then. As our leaders of the time, though were great nationalists and had brought us independence, but perhaps could not understand the meaning of Kashmir’s merger with India.

                                         This was not the only mistake that India committed. India took the matter to U.N.O. It is often said that India did so on the advice of the then viceroy Lord Mountbatten, the person most probably responsible for the decision of protecting only the capital and princely house of Kashmir. India could have resolved the matter with Pakistan in the light of the India Independence Act of 1947 whereby India’s legal position was strong in the wake of the Instrument of Accession already signed between Jammu and Kashmir and India. The Act provided that any of the princely states could join India or Pakistan by choice, the only prerequisite being the geographical continuity of the princely state with the merging nation. Thus, Kashmir had legally become an integral part of India because the King of Kashmir was the legal head of the state and his decision of merger was legal under the India Independence Act. Obviously the India Independence Act would have invalidated the Pakistani attempt of sabotaging Kashmir.

                                                     Further, even at U.N.O. India complained in a manner that was short on research and logic. Here, India filed the case under Article 37 instead of Articles 36 and 51. Simplified, Article 36 refers to the invasion of a sovereign territory by an outside power. While Article 37 refers to the invasion of a territory disputed between the two countries, one of them. Thus by filing the case under Article 37 India legally accepted the disputed status of the territory of Kashmir. This step was in a way a negation of the India Independence Act, the very Act that was the legal source of the creation of an independent and sovereign India from the British Empire. Simply put, despite Kashmir becoming an integral territory of India, the government of India admitted at the UNO that a part of it was not surely under its sovereignty.

                               Later on, Indian leaders realized the blunder but by then the problem had born. The UN Resolution was passed. It asked for the appointment of two neutral observers by the U.N.O., and holding a plebiscite in Kashmir to determine the democratic will of the resident population. But, it also clamped two conditions. One, that Pakistan should withdraw its troops from Kashmir and second, having seen that India should do the same before actual plebiscite could be held. Since, Pakistan never thought of going back, so India was not bound to either withdraw or hold plebiscite. Though, India has been holding parliamentary and state elections there and it is forwarded as a sort of plebiscite by the Indian think tank. But, technically nothing could be done on the U.N. Resolution.

                                  Perhaps all the politicians at the helm of affairs have clearly understood this technical complexity of the issue and hence most of them have just played with the issue and people’s sentiment for Kashmir. They first sensitized the issue by projecting it as the symbol of national prestige and honour. Although they have generally overlooked the similar problem of Aksai Chin. The reason is simple, that Kashmir could be easily related to the psyche of the two- nation theory.

                                                            Before going for any concluding thought it would be better to have a look at one integral part of the same problem, i.e. the Siachin issue. It takes us back to the U.N. Resolution of 1949. It provided for a Line of Control, a position held by the two countries when they accepted the ceasefire as per the resolution. The LOC is a demarcated line up to a point in the Karakoram Mountains called NJ-9842. Demarcation could not be carried out beyond this line because of the geographical adversity of the territory. The UN Accord says that beyond NJ-9842 the line of control would follow the crest line of the Saltotras and Siachin ranges towards northeast up to the border of China. But, the tangle here is that the crest of these ranges does not go along northeast direction. Rather, it takes a backward turn to north and a bit northwest. Here Pakistan is stuck at northeast direction while India favours crest line demarcation. But the problem had not been realized here till 1984.

          In 1984 a French mountaineering group applied with the Indian government for a research tour of the Siachin but the government of India turned down the request. The same group approached the Pakistani government, which permitted them to do so. India thought it as an incursion on Indian Territory from the Pakistani side. So, the Operation Meghdoot was carried and the Indian army occupied the crest line there. Here, India is in advantageous position after having occupied the crest line physically but the cost is enormous. There is one more chink here. Pakistan has gifted about 10,000 sq. km. of area in the Karakoram region to China for developmental purposes. The land, obviously, is claimed by India. The strategic importance of the gift is more than the physical one if seen in the light of Chinese occupation of Aksai Chin.

                                            Obviously, the complexities involving Kashmir are not easy to comprehend and resolve. To add, Pakistan has created the headache of sponsored terrorism. In fact, terrorism has given a new dimension and publicity to the Kashmir problem. It has forced all the concerned powers to look at the problem afresh. Its devastating and negative nature has also convinced the world of India’s stand on it and has unmasked intention of Pakistan, which has now allowed terrorism to move from institutional framework to individual mode. The latest killings of Sarpananches and elected Panchayat members by LeT sponsored militants make this point amply clear. The governments of India and Pakistan must look forward to resolve the issue for the mankind on the sub-continet.. Though, it is highly improbable to predict any amicable solution, and that only the brains of an Aristotle or a Chanakya can do so. 

Understanding FDI in Retail in India


The decisions taken by the Manmohan Singh government in last cabinet meeting have evoked sharp and varied reactions from different quarters. One of the long debated and perhaps equally awaited decisions has been relaxing the norms for FDI in retail, both single brand and multi-brand. The voice of dissent seems louder than the assenting one. The market, however, has responded positively with stock market beginning to fly north. But, the two contrasting behaviour or reactions to the decisions taken by the UPA government apparently killing the bug of policy paralysis have left ordinary people confounded. Confusion is over the nature of the FDI in retail and its impending impact on Indian economy and employment scenario.
Let’s first understand the nature of FDI in retail. The foreign capital can come into India either in collaboration with a home player or via single handed investment by a global player. The government has relaxed the norms for both. It has allowed FDI in multi-brand retail upto 51% and single brand retail 100%, albeit with certain conditions.
Retail is a lucrative business in India as the industry is valued at over USD 450 billion. Interestingly, 90% of it is controlled by unorganized small and medium scale traders. They fear that the big organized corporate retailers would ruin the prospects of the age old profit making gallawallas. However, the government argues that the entire scheme will benefit bot the producers, that is, farmers and the consumers, that is, the aam aadmi. It also says that the move will create more employment in comparison to the job creation by traditional retailers. Moreover, the government allays the fear of elimination of traditional retailers.

The initial reactions from the economic experts are somewhat positive. But, many believe that in the long run neither the aam aadmi nor the farmers will be benefitted. The argument here is this; the global retail giants would have their monopoly in the Indian market in few years from now and then they would manipulate procurement price while dealing with the farmers and selling price while selling the articles to the consumers, the aam aadmi.The answer lies in the realm of future.

The union cabinet has put certain significant conditions for the FDI in retail. It says that only those players will be allowed to operate in India, who will invest a minimum capital of USD 100. Secondly, retail outlets by foreign players can only be opened in the million-plus cities. It effectively means that only 35-40 cities would be entitled to have an FDI-based retail outlet. The state governments can, however, make some amendments to make ineligible cities eligible. Thirdly, the states are not compelled by the centre to give licence to such stores under their respective shops and establishment acts. So, if a state government does not want to have a Walmart store or a Best Buy store, it won’t have one.

However, this argument of the centre that the latest decision is only an enabling policy and the states will have the final authority in this matter looks misleading. If states decide not to issue licence to any such player, it will be in direct conflict with the government of India’s commitment of ‘national treatment’ to investing countries. India has signed the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPAs) with 83 nations. 72 such agreements have already come into force and according to the information available with the official websites of the government, remaining are in the process of being implemented. This commitment of national treatment means that if one store is allowed in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat can not say ‘NO’ to that store if it applies for a licence there. One such instance has happened in Kerala where the matter was decided by the court in retail chain’s favour.

The government has argued repeatedly that inviting foreign capital was the last but the most required resort lest India slipped into deeper economic crisis comparable only to Eurozone crisis and the balance of payment crisis of our own in 1991. Moreover, it also says that adequate protection has been given to small traders. The global retailers will have to bring at least USD 100 million to be able to open a store in India with 30 percent of the capital going into creating basic infrastructure. And, such stores can only be opened in a million plus cities, numbering just over 35.
But, here government has failed to satisfy the people as it has shied away from coming up with figures suggesting as to how many jobs will be created annually should global retailers come over here while giving a comparison as to how many local retailers and their employees would lose their jobs.
The opponents of the FDI in retail policy fear that the global players will change the contour of Indian markets and make it skewed rendering many jobless and wealthless. The age old truth is that the markets have been the chief source of wealth generation and livelihood for many. Millions of retailers, traders and vendors make a living off the markets in India. And, this is precisely the reason which will attract global retail capital to India, and obviously they will work towards creating their own wealth. They will analyze before investing as to whether there will be net gain in wealth should they come to India, which may be the net loser in that case. If and when this happens, the local markets would end up serving the interests of a few multinationals. There is also possibility that the multinational retailers would restrict farmers/ producers access to market on one hand and manipulate prices of commodities on the other.
A recent research by researchers at IIM-Ahmedabad suggests that the globalization of retailers has not succeeded. “A study of top 250 global retailers reveals that 110 of them operate in single local home country. 175 retailers operate in less than 5 countries, mainly neighboring countries. Only 50 retailers operate in more than 10 countries. Only 36 of them have entered into China since the opening up of retail sector in late 1990s. Out of these, 17 retailers are already present in India. Therefore the scope for entry of global retailer entry into India is limited,” says the research.
So, the FDI in retail in India is still an inconclusive matter and most of its aspects can only be understood in future.

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