Lalit has Swaraj, Raje on 'Modigate Board'

The Modigate is getting murkier by the day. So much has come in the public domain, still it is yet to be ascertained as to where it all began- in Rajasthan Cricket Association, in the IPL or in the political crossfire between the Congress and the BJP? The chances of the latter are substantially high.

At RCA, Lalit Modi stood against Kishore Rungta, who had strong backing of the Congress’ high grade leaders. Lalit Modi got support from Vasundhara Raje and extended the same to her in return. The relation between the two was so close that Raje personally took his wife to Portugal for treatment of cancer! And, this comes directly from the horse’s mouth. With BJP’s able support, Lalit Modi trumped Rungta and wielded unprecedented sway over the state cricket body.

During the time of Sharad Pawar he rose fast in the cricket hierarchy and suddenly burst on the international cricket scene in 2008 with IPL, which revolutionized cricket not only in India but throughout the world. Money flowed thicker and faster than water, and glitter and glamour blinded all.

Things started taking a downhill turn for the IPL czar when Kochi’s IPL management did not go along his wishes. And, Lalit Modi spilled beans on the micro-blogging site, Twitter. Kochi was finally dismantled. But, it took other tolls as well. One result was that the ruling dispensation of the centre got perturbed over Lalit Modi’s moves. The IPL boss had to finally take leave of entry and remain in the UK. Many believe that all this much has to do with Shashi Tharoor  (and also P Chidambaram. I am not sure of latter’s connection with the IPL). Some others say that the suspicious ‘murder’ of Sunanda Pushkar was a gory fall out of the IPL murk.

All this while, the Congress held its sway over the crucial agencies that hounded Lalit Modi, who had on his side the Rajes, the Swarajas of the BJP, the Pawars, the Shuklas and the like from the rest. IPL linked and knitted them well, but it when it divided, it did so political fault-lines of BJP and Congress. So, he was ‘ousted’, his passport confiscated when the Congress was ruling and was given a breather only after the regime changed.

Swarajas have had a special connection with him. Swaraj Kaushal has been his lawyer for 22 years and his daughter Bansuri is in the line to take over the baton. Sushma has, for obvious reasons, known Lalit Modi for long. Notwithstanding the claims, the MEA has done something that doesn’t fit in the frame of ethics especially when she holds one of the top offices in the country. A prima facie case of quid pro quo can easily be made out.

Sushma Swaraj extended ‘humanitarian’ help to Lalit Modi, when he did not legally require it, and while the judgement on his confiscated passport was reserved in Delhi High Court. 

The MEA personally spoke to the high commissioner (a very unusual thing for a humanitarian help) and also to a very influential and supposedly manipulative UK member of parliament of Indian origin, Keith Vaz to ensure that Lalit Modi is allowed to travel outside UK for his wife’s treatment, followed by a multi-location holiday. 

Sushma did so in contravention of the UPA’s stand pending the look-out notice at the behest of the Enforcement Directorate. Lalit Modi has been her husband’s client for 22 years and now her daughter Bansuri is among her legal consultants. This determines a clash of interests.

Now, it is being said that Sushma met Lalit Modi in a London hotel owned by Sushma’s family friend. Very frankly, had the Congress been in power and a minister of that government had got so much as Sushma on his CV, the BJP would have left no stone unturned to dislodge him from the office.

With the emergence of Vasundhara connection with Lalit Modi, the entire episode has taken a muddier twist. Vasundhara (if) gave a secret witness to Lalit Modi’s petition for leave of entry to the UK, she took his wife to Portugal and to return the favour, the man at the eye of the political cyclone invested more than 11.5 crore rupees in her son’s company. Quid pro quo?

However, in the midst of all this, Sharad Pawar, Praful Patel, Rajeev Shukla, Mukesh Ambani and a few others must consider themselves lucky, for they seem to have escaped the storm. For the record, Sharad Pawar and Praful Patel advised Lalit Modi to stay away from India, for should he enter the country he would be arrested. And, Mukesh Ambani had assured Lalit Modi ‘on the behalf of the top people in the (then) government’ that he can buy his safety in India by promising that he would stay out of Rajasthan cricket, where it all began!!!

Bihar poised for battle of ballots

So, what emerges from the BJP is this: the party continues to develop cold feet in finding a face other than the magical Narendra Modi. We saw this in Mahararashtra and also in Haryana where they projected the prime minister as the chief minister’s patron and succeeded in getting people’s mandate. But, that they could not find a face from Maharashtra BJP also remains a damning fact though there were so many leaders within the party in the state.

In Delhi we saw the opposite. They had won all the seven parliamentary constituencies in Delhi, though several voters, who actually got them elected can’t recognise them all by face. In the assembly polls, the BJP could not find a face that could be projected and rallied around. They parachuted a former IPS officer who had rubbed shoulder with the incumbent chief minister of Delhi. And, it turned out to be a classic case of how to lose an election.

Now, the stage is set for Bihar assembly polls, which would be held in September-October. BJP under Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combination looks formidable despite losing Delhi Darbar. The opposition knows this quite well. And, this explains why Lalu Prasad Yadav forgave his tormentor Nitish Kumar and not only joined hands but accepted his leadership. Lalu Prasad’s statement that he “is ready to drink every poison to defeat communal forces of BJP” tells how an astute political mind from the opposition rank reads Modi-Shah combination.

Lalu is a political outcast at the moment, can’t contest polls, therefore can’t be as effective as he could have been. Lalu understands that Bihar has changed a lot in the last one decade. Youth are no longer craving for caste pride. They are aspiring, dreaming of living life king size. Mobile phone internet has changed the mindset of the youth, who are the biggest force in the state. So, he recognises the threat that Modi would pose when he would sell dreams to the teeming millions of Bihar.

Narendra Modi’s rise in BJP ranks means that the myths of caste barriers are also being broken in Bihar. Modi’s presence neutralises BJP’s forward caste image and also Nitish’s now defunct social engineering of Mahadalit, who sensed their recognition in the chief minister’s theory but in Modi, they sense fructification of their aspiration, ambition and also liberation.

The last few polls in Bihar have seen the traditional voting pattern being breached. Yadava’s support for RJD has been declining. Kurmi-Koeri support for JDU is also showing signs of drift. Mahadalits have understood their electoral worth and are not blind voters this time around. Congress’ organizational weakness means that the upper caste voters would tend to align with the BJP, who have unwavering support of the traders, the Baniyas. 

It means that almost 17% of Muslims could be vital and decisive for Bihar after at least two assembly polls. This is why Modi-bashing is attaining high pitch in Bihar and TV studios. And, on the counter-hand, we saw the prime minister reading a verse from Quran to underline the significance of knowledge.

There are several other factors in Bihar this time around. The Manjhis and the Pappus are potential spoilsports. Jitan Ram Manjhi is certainly bound to pull a sizeable portion of Mahadalits from the JDU’s shelter to saffron camp by playing victim card. Pappu Yadav with his new party can play a bigger role in Kosi belt and among Yadavas. Manjhi may be a factor in central-south Bihar in about 20 assembly segments while Pappu Yadav may affect results in about 70 assembly seats of Kosi-Mithilanchal belt.

So, Bihar is going to be an interesting battle of ballots once again. BJP could do well if it can slay its own demon of one-up-man-ship in the party and that too in time. Though, signs are not good with SuMo rejecting party’s state in-charge Ananth Kumar’s proposition that NaMo would be the face for assembly polls. JDU-RJD combo is banking heavily on this very divisive factor associated with Narendra Modi, to stage an electoral coup in a state where they have been ruling for more than two decades and a half.

Manjhi hots up Bihar politics; test for Modi-Shah combo

Politics in Bihar has taken a curious turn with the JDU expelling Chief Minister Jeetan Ram Manjhi from the party while the resurgent leader has dug in his heels. He has refused to throw towel as easily as the Nitish-Sharad-Lalu axis would have thought.

This is perhaps the only instance of a Chief Minister being expelled for refusing to step down despite clear instruction of the party. The Speaker has accepted Nitish Kumar as the floor leader of the JDU, which is the ruling party and Nitish camp has claimed support of more number than required for majority. So, Manjhi can technically be rejected as an eligible member of the Bihar Assembly by the Speaker and hence loses the ground to remain as the chief minister of the state.

But, constitutionally, Manjhi is still the chief minister. The Constitution does not recognize party as the basis of executive/government or even legislature for that matter. Elections are fought along party lines in accordance with the Representation of the People's Act and conducted by the Election Commission but that is the end of statutory role of party in the Constitutional scheme of governance in India.

So, clearly here surfaces a dichotomy vis a vis the political scenario of Bihar. The Speaker would not recognize the Chief Minister, who may be recognized by the Governor because the person holding the office of the Chief Minister has not quit. The Chief Minister can be removed only through a floor test if he is not quitting on his own. This also means the political ball of Bihar is in the court of Governor, Kesari Nath Tripathi who, obviously is not an institution only but a political persona as well.

The options before the Governor are here as under:

1. Ask Manjhi to go for a floor test
2. Dissolve the assembly on the recommendation of Manjhi on the back of having been authorized by his cabinet or the majority of his cabinet to do so; but if the Governor has doubts about Manjhi enjoying confidence of majority, he may not act on the recommendation of Manjhi
3. Appoint Nitish Kumar, who has staked claim to form a new government, but the Governor can only do so after Manjhi fails to prove majority in the floor test
4. Impose President's Rule and dissolve the assembly
5. Impose President's Rule and keep the assembly in suspended animation as its tenure still has some 8-9 months left.

Here the Governor can play the role of a king maker. But, his role would largely depend on the mood of the central leadership of the BJP. The BJP leadership would be in a catch-22 situation. It can not go with Manjhi so easily because the BJP can not trust him for next 8-9 months. The BJP can not either favour imposing President's Rule because that would give Nitish some sympathy. It cannot support suspended animation state of assembly for it is, in all probability, about to witness the folly of the approach in Delhi. So, more than Nitish and Manjhi, the Bihar politics seems to be a litmus test the political acumen of the BJP.