Manjhi hots up Bihar politics; test for Modi-Shah combo

Politics in Bihar has taken a curious turn with the JDU expelling Chief Minister Jeetan Ram Manjhi from the party while the resurgent leader has dug in his heels. He has refused to throw towel as easily as the Nitish-Sharad-Lalu axis would have thought.

This is perhaps the only instance of a Chief Minister being expelled for refusing to step down despite clear instruction of the party. The Speaker has accepted Nitish Kumar as the floor leader of the JDU, which is the ruling party and Nitish camp has claimed support of more number than required for majority. So, Manjhi can technically be rejected as an eligible member of the Bihar Assembly by the Speaker and hence loses the ground to remain as the chief minister of the state.

But, constitutionally, Manjhi is still the chief minister. The Constitution does not recognize party as the basis of executive/government or even legislature for that matter. Elections are fought along party lines in accordance with the Representation of the People's Act and conducted by the Election Commission but that is the end of statutory role of party in the Constitutional scheme of governance in India.

So, clearly here surfaces a dichotomy vis a vis the political scenario of Bihar. The Speaker would not recognize the Chief Minister, who may be recognized by the Governor because the person holding the office of the Chief Minister has not quit. The Chief Minister can be removed only through a floor test if he is not quitting on his own. This also means the political ball of Bihar is in the court of Governor, Kesari Nath Tripathi who, obviously is not an institution only but a political persona as well.

The options before the Governor are here as under:

1. Ask Manjhi to go for a floor test
2. Dissolve the assembly on the recommendation of Manjhi on the back of having been authorized by his cabinet or the majority of his cabinet to do so; but if the Governor has doubts about Manjhi enjoying confidence of majority, he may not act on the recommendation of Manjhi
3. Appoint Nitish Kumar, who has staked claim to form a new government, but the Governor can only do so after Manjhi fails to prove majority in the floor test
4. Impose President's Rule and dissolve the assembly
5. Impose President's Rule and keep the assembly in suspended animation as its tenure still has some 8-9 months left.

Here the Governor can play the role of a king maker. But, his role would largely depend on the mood of the central leadership of the BJP. The BJP leadership would be in a catch-22 situation. It can not go with Manjhi so easily because the BJP can not trust him for next 8-9 months. The BJP can not either favour imposing President's Rule because that would give Nitish some sympathy. It cannot support suspended animation state of assembly for it is, in all probability, about to witness the folly of the approach in Delhi. So, more than Nitish and Manjhi, the Bihar politics seems to be a litmus test the political acumen of the BJP.

Boxing Day Judgement: Snooping noose and riot relief for Modi

December 26- the boxing day seems to have put BJP’s prime ministerial candidate into a boxing ring like situation, where he gets one punch in his face while the other one got deflected at the Ahmedabad metropolitan court. The Centre decided to set up an inquiry commission to probe the snooping scandal involving a certain ‘Saheb’, who is yet to be identified but widely believed to be the Gujarat CM. The Centre’s move is clearly set to damage Modi’s credentials drawing furuious reactions from the BJP, which has vowed to challenge the Union Cabinet’s decision saying that it violates the federal scheme of India provided in the Constitution.

So, while Modi seems to be heading to the Congress’s trap in snooping case, he has got a big reprieve in one of the 2002 Gujarat riots cases. The metropolitan court has given a clean chit to Modi in the Gulbarg Society massacre case accepting the Supreme Court appointed Special Investigation Team (SIT). Notwithstanding this clean chit, Modi has a long way to go before he could have a similar clean chit from the minority community especially the muslims. The perception is not bound by a court verdict and the perception is very strong in 2002 riot cases that Modi did not follow, what Atal Bihari Vajpayee called, ‘Rajdharma’. This perception can be compared with 1984 riots and Congress’s (Rajiv Gandhi’s, to be precise) image. Taint can’t be wiped out, but can’t be let to inflict further damage.

However, Modi supporters have got a good point to defend the BJP’s PM candidate in TV debates. But, even the ardent supporter of Modi would not deny that whatever Modi did by commission or omission during 2002 riots was right. It is impossible to fathom that a few groups of ruffians tailor-made for communal violence can kill so many people including a parliamentarian with a strong willed government present in a state. People running the government must have had a role to play directly or indirectly. If Congress governments are held responsible for 1984 and 1986 riots, how could Modi’s government be an exception in the case of 2002 riots.

Many close to Modi give him the benefit of doubt for being too new in the chair when the riots took place in Gujarat arguing that he was yet not at the helm of affairs of administration there. They also believe that when riots broke out, Modi developed cold feet as he was caught unprepared to deal with the situation. However, it is beyond the realm of logic as to why Modi did not issue a clear cut instruction to the police and civil administration that steps should be taken to esnure that no communal violence took place in Gujarat. Also, why did not Modi ask organizations like Bajrang Dal and Vishwa Hindu Parishad, which are very close to BJP, to ensure that communal fabric is not disturbed and the muslims are not harmed in the aftermath of Godhra massacre. In any case micro-management of administration was not the responsibility of the Chief Minister.

Further, why did not Modi show any urgency in ensuring justice to the victims and bringing perpetrators to justice? Why did not Modi took immediate steps to allay fears among the muslims and affected hindus? Such questions are serious and pose a big challenge to Modi’s popularity and his claim for the top job in the country. 

Vote Against Congress, if.... : Anna

After having taken on the cetral government with his hunger strike in new delhi recently, anti-graft activist Anna Hazare now goes political. He has appealed to people in all the poll bound states to vote against congress if the Manmohan Singh government does not pass the Jan Lokpal Bill in the winter session. Team Anna has already begun to shape electioneering with a bypoll scheduled in Hissar in Haryana
on October 13th. Next in focus is Uttar Pradesh, where Anna will set up his camp three days before the date of voting. Other poll bound states of Uttarakhand, Goa, Gujarat and Punjab will also see a different kind of poll campaign by Team Anna.

Clearly, Anna Hazare made a bold statement again on Tuesday by challenging the UPA govt once again over Jan Lokpal Bill. His renewed threat to undertake another hunger strike should Parliament fails to enact the Janlokpal Bill will surely compound problems for already embattled UPA think tank.

The veteran Gandhian, who has become a national symbol against corruption, on Tuesday refuted all the charges of him siding with the right wing parties. He said that only people with vested interests level such allegations against him and his team.

And, much to the liking of the congress party, Anna hit out at the Narendra Modi government of Gujarat for putting IPS officer behind the bars for speaking against the chief minister in cases related to 2002 riots. He wished that judiciary should be allowed to settle the case.

Anna Hazare's renewed fight for a corruption free administration on Tuesday seems to cross the frontiers earlier understood by many political observers. On Tuesday in Ralegaon, Anna made it clear that politics over communal violence is also a form of corruption, that people must fight with all their might.