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| Congress workers led by NSUI staging a protest in Mysuru during election campaign for Karnataka Assembly election. (Photo: NSUIKarnataka) |
Electioneering has entered its last lap in Karnataka Assembly election which is all set for a triangular contest between the ruling Congress, lead contender the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (Secular), which is eyeing to play kingmaker after results are declared on May 15. The votes will be cast on May 12 for 224 Assembly seats in Karnataka.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi hit the campaign trail in Karnataka on Tuesday while senior BJP leaders including party president Amit Shah, chief ministerial candidate BS Yeddyurappa and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath have been relentlessly campaigning in the state.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi has already completely seventh leg of election campaign in Karnataka. He is expected to address more rallies in the state beginning Thursday till the campaign ends on May 10.
Karnataka has 30 districts which are geographically divided in six regions on the basis of regional historical similarities. These regions have shown distinctive political and electoral trend in the past elections. The regions are: Hyderabad Karnataka, Bombay Karnataka, Central Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and Southern Karnataka or Old Mysore (Mysuru) region.
Hyderabad Karnataka
Hyderabad Karnataka is called so because the districts comprising the region were once part of the princely State of Hyderabad. These districts – Bidar, Gulbarg, Yadgir, Raichur and Koppal – have 40 Assembly segments. The region has sizeable population of the Lingayats and OBCs.
Congress leader in the Lok Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge is the powerful OBC leader from this region. Before crackdown on mining baron brothers – the Reddys (G Janardhana Reddy, G Karunakara Reddy and G Somashekara Reddy of Bellary) – were also a force to reckon with in this region.
Despite the presence of known BJP supporters in the Lingayats and the Reddy brothers, the entire region has voted favourably for the Congress. In the last Assembly election in 2013, the Congress won 23 seats while the BJP won seven. The Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) of BS Yeddyurappa won two. Now the KJP has merged with the BJP. The JDS had won five seats while others secured two seats.
In terms of vote share, the Congress polled 35 per cent votes in 2013 followed by the BJP at 17 per cent and the JD(S) at 16 per cent. The KJP secured 14 per cent votes. The combined vote share of the BJP and KJP stood at 31 per cent in 2013.
The scenario changed dramatically in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, by when BS Yeddyurappa had returned to the BJP fold. In 2014, the BJP secured 47 per cent votes followed by the Congress at 45 per cent while JD(S) got only 2 per cent vote – 14 per cent less than what it polled just a year ago.
If we interpolate the vote share of the Lok Sabha polls on the Karnataka Assembly constituencies, the BJP could have won 23 seats in 2014 with the Congress pocketing the rest 17 segments.
Currently, six Assembly seats in the region are vacant, four of which were won by the JD(S) and one each by the Congress and the BJP.
Bombay Karnataka
Bombay Karnataka region comprises of districts that were carved out from the former State of Bombay. The region has six districts – Bijapur, Bagalkot, Belgaum, Dharwad, Gadag and Haveri – and 50 Assembly seats. Gadag and Haveri were originally part of Dharwad district before they became separate administrative units.
The region has strong presence of the Lingayats and has sent powerful leaders like JH Patel, Ramakrishna Hegde and SR Bommai in the past. It has been a BJP stronghold since 2008 Karnataka election. The BJP performed well in 2009 parliamentary polls and also in 2014 elections. However, the Congress was benefitted the most when Yeddyurappa parted ways with the BJP ahead of 2013 Assembly election.
In 2013, the Congress won 30 seats in the region followed by the BJP which got 15 seats. The JD(S) won just one. Yeddyurappa’s KJP also won only one Assembly segment. Others got three seats. The Congress’ vote share in 2013 was 38 per cent followed by the BJP (27 per cent), the JD(S) – 11 per cent – and the KJP (10 per cent).
In 2014, the BJP regained primacy in the region polling 51 per cent of votes while the Congress got 43 per cent seat. The JD(S) suffered major loss getting only two per cent votes. Going by the vote share of 2014 elections, the BJP was leading in 39 Assembly segments while the Congress was reduced to 11 – down from 30 a year ago.
Coastal Karnataka
Karnataka has three districts that have direct access to the Arabian Sea. These are Uttar Kannada, Udupi and Dakshin Kannada. The region has 19 seats which have seen electoral tussles fashioned by religious divides.
Coastal region has sizeable population of Christians and Muslims, who are numerically placed to influence election results at many seats in the Coastal Karnataka. The Hindutva agenda of the BJP becomes a talking point during election time here.
In 2013, when the BJP was smarting under the impact of Yeddyurappa’s revolt, the Congress secured 13 seats in Coastal Karnataka. The BJP won only three seats. In terms of vote share, the Congress polled 43 per cent votes while the BJP got 34 per cent and the JD(S) nine per cent. The KJP had polled three per cent of the votes.
A year later, the BJP secured 55 per cent votes with Congress lost three per cent votes compared to the Assembly election while the JD(S) could get only 0.3 per cent vote. In 2014, the BJP could have won 17 Assembly seats while the Congress led in two constituencies only.
Central Karnataka
The four districts of Chikmaglur, Chitradurga, Davangere and Shimoga form the Central Karnataka region which has 26 seats. Both the Congress and the BJP claim equal dominance in the region that has been a witness to many close contests in the past.
In 2014, the BJP secured 46 per cent votes comfortably ahead of Congress’ 37 per cent. The performance was better than the combined vote share of the BJP and KJP in 2013 Karnataka Assembly polls when they polled 33 per cent (15+18) votes.
The Congress won 15 seats in 2013 followed by JD(S) that won six seats and the BJP which pocketed four seats. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah hopes to keep Congress’ lead in the region with his government’s proposal for according minority status to the Lingayats.
The Central Karnataka has strong presence of Veershaivas and Lingayats. While Veershaivas don’t consider Lingayats as a separate sect, the latter have harboured an ambition of a being recognised as a distinct religious denomination. They have had long historical connect. With Siddaramaiah playing to the gallery by sending Karnataka government’s recommendation to the Centre, the Congress is likely to gain from a possible split in the Lingayat votes.
Southern Karnataka or Old Mysore (Mysuru) region
The Mysore region is electorally the most significant part of Karnataka. It comprises of nine districts – Tumkur, Chikkaballapura, Kolar, Ramanagar, Chamarajnagar, Mandya, Hassan, Kodagu and Mysore or Mysuru - and has 57 Assembly segments.
This region has strong presence of Vokkaligas making Deve Gowda’s JD(S) a force in Karnataka politics. The Congress has done well in the past in this region which gave the party a leader like SM Krishna, who is now with the BJP. He had quit the Congress saying that he had been sidelined but in the BJP, he is not seen campaigning anywhere for the party in Karnataka Assembly election.
In 2013, the Congress got 26 of 57 seats in Old Mysore region followed by 25 won by the JD(S) and three by the BJP. In terms of vote share, the Congress got 38 per cent votes while the JD(S) polled 34 per cent and the BJP secured eight per cent. The KJP got nine per cent vote here.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress retained its superiority by securing 42 per cent votes that could have translated into victory at 34 Assembly seats. The JD(S) won 29 per cent votes leading in 15 Assembly segments while the BJP got 24 per cent votes securing lead on 10 seats. Currently five Assembly seats are vacant in the Mysore region.
Bangalore region
Bangalore is the heart of political activities in Karnataka. Though it is geographically part of the Mysore region, it is treated as a separate regional political entity which has 32 seats across five districts – Bengaluru Urban, Bengaluru Rural, Brihan Bengaluru Metropolitan (BBMP) North, BBMP South and BBMP Central.
The Congress and the BJP have been in close electoral fight in Bangalore region in the past. In 2013, the Congress won 15 seats while the BJP pocketed 12 and the JD(S) five, two of which are currently vacant. The Congress polled 41 per cent votes in 2013 followed by the BJP at 32 per cent (plus two per cent by the KJP) while the JD(S) secured 19 per cent votes.
In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP saw a surge polling 53 per cent of the votes that could have translated into victory at 24 Assembly seats. The Congress got 37 per cent or 8 Assembly seats if the Lok Sabha election votes are taken into account. The JD(S) got only six per cent votes in 2014.
Overall, the Congress had won 37 per cent votes in 2013 for 122 seats and the BJP and the JD(S) 20 per cent each for winning equal number of 40 seats. In 2014 elections, the Congress polled 41.2 per cent votes while the BJP got 43.4 per cent votes.
If 2014 vote share was interpolated on the Assembly segments, the BJP would have won 132 seats followed by the Congress at 77 and the JD(S) at 15.
(A part of write up appeared on indiatoday.in)
