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| Congress president Rahul Gandhi during his Germany tour in August 2018. (Photo: Twitter/@RahulGandhi) |
During his Karnataka Assembly campaign Congress president Rahul Gandhi had said: The deadliest thing in Indian politics is Opposition unity. It will smash everything in its path. Mister Rajiv Gandhi had 415 seats and 40 per cent of the vote (in 1984 election) but he could not withstand Opposition unity.
Rahul Gandhi's statement reflected Congress's desire to achieve Opposition unity to test the BJP in 2019 election. The Congress, first under Sonia Gandhi and now under Rahul Gandhi, has been aspiring to assume the role of a unifier and a leader of the Opposition bloc. But, the Monsoon Session of Parliament showed that the Congress or Rahul Gandhi may not be the rallying point for the entire Opposition.
The Congress received two setbacks in three weeks over 18 sittings of the Monsoon Session. On July 20, the no-confidence motion - moved by the TDP but only after Congress's approval - was soundly defeated in the Lok Sabha. Twenty days later, Congress could not get enough support for its candidate BK Hari Prasad in the election for the deputy chairperson of the Rajya Sabha.
Defeat of the no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha looked certain given the number of MPs the BJP has in the House. But going into trial of strength in the Lok Sabha, Congress leader Sonia Gandhi had thrown a challenge saying, "Who says we don't have numbers?" The House said so. But more than the defeat of the no-confidence motion, it was poor managerial skills that should rankle the Congress.
The Shiv Sena has been utterly unhappy with the BJP. It is fighting its oldest ally, the BJP, every other day. But the Congress failed to win over the sulking party leadership. Rahul Gandhi did not even reach out to the Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray. Shiv Sena abstained during voting on no-confidence motion. The BJD also stayed away from voting while the AIADMK voted against the motion. They are non-NDA parties. Rahul Gandhi failed to bring them on his side. No initiative was visible from his side.
During the Rajya Sabha deputy chairperson election on August 9, again an unhappy Shiv Sena voted with the NDA partners. The BJD, AIADMK and TRS voted for the NDA nominee Harivansh. Rahul Gandhi again faltered by not approaching these parties for support - not even the YSR Congress, which abstained from voting.
The Congress under Rahul Gandhi is showing signs of rigidity under false notion of its muscular strength in many states. Odisha is a classic example. The BJD has been in power in Odisha for 18 years. The BJP has emerged as the principal challenger to the BJD in Odisha. The Congress is definitely the number three.
Yet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah manage to get support of the BJD in Parliament while Rahul Gandhi does not seem inclined to reach out to Naveen Patnaik, the Odisha chief minister. Rahul Gandhi seems to harbour misplaced belief that the Congress can win back power in Odisha.
Delhi is another example. Delhi Chief Minister and AAP boss Arvind Kejriwal is a bitter critic of PM Modi and the BJP but Rahul Gandhi has not shown any inclination till date to have him on board to stitch Opposition unity. Congress heavyweights like Ajay Maken in Delhi seem to give a false hope to Rahul Gandhi that the party can win the next Assembly election here.
The party had been reduced to naught in 2015, when only eight Congress candidates had succeeded in saving their deposits. Even Sheila Dikshit, the then chief minister, had lost her deposit to Arvind Kejriwal, who has been extremely critical of PM Modi and the BJP. Still, Rahul Gandhi and the Congress have treated Arvind Kejriwal as political outcaste.
In the case of Uttar Pradesh, Rahul Gandhi's "friendship" with SP president Akhilesh Yadav broke as soon as BSP chief Mayawati agreed to fight together. The SP-BSP alliance defeated the BJP even while ignoring the Congress.
The SP and BSP are going to fight together in Madhya Pradesh. They are likely to have alliance with local Gondwana Gantantra Party but the Congress is not in their scheme of things. Rahul Gandhi has not dropped any hint of accommodating these parties, which have influence in certain pockets of Madhya Pradesh. The Congress is faction-ridden in Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP is seeking a fourth consecutive term in power.
The Congress's relation with the NCP is not smooth. The NCP is ready to extend support to the minority BJP government despite having shared power with the Congress both in the state and at the Centre. NCP chief Sharad Pawar has repeatedly hinted that he wants a free hand in mobilising Opposition parties against the BJP, but Rahul Gandhi does not seem to be comfortable.
The CPI-M has passed a resolution stating that it would have no arrangement with the Congress for election or other political purposes. The TMC is not ready to let Rahul Gandhi assume the leadership role for the entire Opposition.
In Parliament, both the NCP and the TMC tried to show their independent anti-BJP credentials than being a partner of the Congress. Even the TDP tries to maintain distance from Rahul Gandhi's Congress in Parliament.
Rahul Gandhi, at present seems to have only one unflinching alliance partner in the form of Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD. Omar Abdullah of the National Conference is another leader, who supports Rahul Gandhi but that seems more personal than political.
On the other hand, PM Modi and Amit Shah have managed to keep the allies together. If Odisha is a demonstration of how Rahul Gandhi has failed to show political maneuverability, Bihar showcases Amit Shah's ability to keep the allies together. Despite the JDU's reentry in the NDA last year, the BJP keeps holding the LJP and RLSP in the fold.
With twin failures in Parliament in 20 days, Rahul Gandhi now has a huge challenge to win Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram later this year. If he fails to win these elections, he would have to bury his own dream - acknowledged during Karnataka Assembly polls - of becoming the prime minister in 2019.
(This was originally written for Indiatoday.in but somehow, it did not pass the editorial test. I am just posting it on my blog to keep this use-less piece for record.)
