The ambitious food for all scheme as envisaged under the Food
Security Bill is well on the course of becoming a reality by force of a
law. The President has promulgated the ordinance to the same effect.
Now, it has to be passed by both the houses of Parliament during the
monsoon session, scheduled to commence of July 26. Else, the ordinance
will lapse. Politically, it is the best shot fired by corruption stung
United Progressive Alliance government aiming the next general election.
But, financially, the tax payers shall have to cough up between
1.25-1.90 lakh crores of rupees annually to meet the cost.
The Constitution says that the President can
promulgate an ordinance if circumstances require taking immediate action
on a certain issue. Except politics, nothing can explain the urgency
for promulgamation of food ordinance. Now, that it is more than obvious
that ordinance is constitutional in letter but essentially political in
spirit, let's examine the circumstances which forced government (or,
constitutionally speaking satisfied the President) take by-pass route.
The food security bill has been making enough noises
since 2011 when the National Advisory Council approved the proposed
law. The politics over the bill has been intense popularizing the
contents of the bill thereby helping the UPA's objective of
dissemination of information that the bill is aimed at the largest
constituency of voters-- the poor. All the UPA constituents are in
favour of the bill becoming law with minor differences of opinion
vis-a-vis modality and strategy. The BJP led NDA has spoken in different
voices but importantly venting out their opposition to the bill. The
Left and the fringe or life support players for the UPA are not in
favour of the bill in its present form.
The revised version, the Food Security Bill, 2013
was introduced in Parliament on March 22 earlier this year during the
budget session. Nothing meaningful happened amid chaos and pandemonium
over various issues of corruption and resultant mud slinging. This seems
to be a regular dose of politics in India. Such circumstances do not
create problem of immediacy in Indian politics. So, what were those
circumstances that 'satisfied the President' to invoke Article 123 of
the Constitution? 123 of politics? Perhaps yes.
The lok sabha election is just a stone's throw away
and the Congress-led government has become a synonym of corruption in
public and popular perception, to say the least. And, perception decides
the fate of electoral politics. Over four years of policy paralysis at
the centre, duly reflected in most of the states, has demolished India's
growth theory, which has, anyways, been jobless growth adjusted to
population growth.
Scams after scams, scandals involving union
ministers and ruling dispensation's flip-flops at dealing with
corruption and opposition to corruption have given the BJP-led
opposition a realistic chance to staging a come-back. To cash in on the
favourable wave, the RSS-BJP combine has brought a leader, who suits
them the most, to the forefront. Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi is
controversial and perceived as Hindu hardliner, although he does not
talk about Hindutva, the Ram Temple and Uniform Civil Code ever. His
image is that of a development oriented man and politician. He is also
capable of tiding over the infighting in party. And, above all, the
Congress fears that he could be divisive when it comes to electioneering
and voting denting its chances further. Now, it is expedient for the
Congress to counter all the counter-UPA perception and moves. The food
for all law is one weapon that can repair the dents in Congress's body
politic.
Save some breath for economics of food for all
scheme. There is a genuine concern among informed masses and experts
alike that food security scheme will push fiscal deficit further.
According to some agencies, this scheme can widen the gap by 0.5% this
financial year itself. However, the government does not believe.
(Obviously, it can not in the election year.) The finance ministry has
earmarked 77, 740 crores of rupees for food subsidy with an additional
allocation of 10, 000 crores of rupees towards incremental cost due to
food bill. Thus, by managing over 87, 000 crores of rupees for food
scheme, the finance ministry hopes to keep the fiscal deficit within the
targetted range of 4.8% of the gross domestic product.
Interestingly, there are other figures suggesting
that the UPA government is either mistaken or has become an Ostrich.
According to government's own estimate the food security scheme would
cost the national exchequer around 1.25 lakh crore rupees annually.
Other estimates put this cost between 1.75-1.90 lakh crore rupees. This
entails a darker financial future of the nation. It simply means that
the earning population will have to pay this much of money in the form
of additional taxes as the government is already in huge deficit. Now,
see this in a double window screen, wherein the second window shows that
the food for all scheme will be routed through the Public Distribution
System, which is, at its best, just 45% efficient. This means, the
earning population will have to cover up for this 65% leakage as well.
This can not be good economics.
But, we are in the election year, when populist
politics prevails over all kinds of prudence. So, the food security
ordinance becomes an exigency especially when information is oozing out
that the election commission may notify the lok sabha polls on September
22. The UPA government does not have much time left to correct the
distorting perception among the voters. It could not have waited for the
Monsoon session, which would otherwise not see any debate and passage
of the food bill. Obviously, the Constitution has remedial provisions
for such circumstances.
Now, the Congress can proudly tell the nation (read
voters) that it has implemented the education for all scheme, job for
all scheme, information for all scheme, housing for all scheme and the
most importantly food for all scheme. So, the people are secure on all
the fronts. Let the opposition indulge in communal, developmental, dalit
and other divisive politics, the UPA can go ahead with its poll
preparation. If it damages economic health of the nation, only the next
government will have to answer.
