Manmohan Sounds Poll Bugle, Will People Listen?

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh presented his government's report card on Wednesday on completion of four years of staying in power. Adding his previous regime, the UPA government is in power for nine years. One thing is clear that no prime minister can be honest enough to do genuine critical analysis of his own government. Those were different days when former prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru came down heavily on his own ministers following allegations of nepotism and corruption. Now, it's all about cover-up business and making bold (at times foolishly bold) claims of one's own achievements. Manmohan Singh seemed one such exposed politician on Wednesday.

The Prime Minister chose to focus on four areas, that were key to him in patting his back. His "four key achievements: one, the improved performance of the economy; two, making the growth process more inclusive; three, delivery of better governance and better delivery of welfare and development programmes; and, four, improved relations with a changing and challenging  world" are now public. Singh insisted that his government has "taken our country forward on all these four fronts in the nine years".

At the face of it, the claims look erroneous. The claim of fast GDP growth does not hold water in the face of all reports of increasing disparity among the populace. The constantly high inflation especially of food articles in past more than four years betrays bad financial and monetary management of the country. The last year's GDP growth rate of less than five percent was attributed to a global phenomenon. The Prime Minister cited China's slowdown as collateral proof and also recalled a lower average growth rate during NDA regime. But, the economist-turned-politician failed to notice that India did not grow at the rate at which China grew and also not on the similar fundamentals of economy. Secondly, many economists believed that the first two years of UPA's nine-year rule benefitted from the policies of NDA regime. Moreover, can the government justify one failure with another apparent failure?

Manmohan Singh could have done well speaking the truth behind stagnating economy. He should have explained why his government is suffering from policy paralysis, why several infrastructural projects have been stalled, why investment projects are not taking off, why corruption has become a rule in his government and most importantly, why governance has been receding for four-five years.
 

The government's claim of making growth more inclusive is debatable. Many communities in India are sulking under the present regime. Tribals in the east and the north-east feel deeply alienated. It finds expression in the spreading network of naxal insurgency. The naxalism has successfully found foot soldiers in Assam for the first time since it started in late 1960s in West Bengal. The only state where naxal violence has been curbed is Andhra Pradesh but the state is embroiled in nothing less than what could be termed as a 'mini civil-war' with Telangana simmering to have its separate identity and Royalseema hoping to gain some lateral benefits. There is none to deny that Telangana has been mismanaged by the Manmohan Singh government.

Singh's third claim of better governance and ensuring welfare of people can be easily reviewed in the chorus of 2G, Coal, Defence, MNREGS and many other scams. Most of the scams were examined and verified by the Comptroller and Auditor General's office, which came under sharp criticism from the government. Thankfully, the judicial decisions have not gone against the claims of the CAG. Now, the same constitutional body's independence is reportedly being compromised with the UPA's decision to appoint defence secretary Shashi Kant Sharma as the next CAG of India. Sharma will be examining and auditing the deals that he cleared as the defence secretary as part of the UPA government's machinery. Combine this with reports suggesting government's neglect of intelligence gathering resulting in terror attacks climaxed in 2008-killings in Mumbai, and one will get a scary picture of governance and compromising condition of the welfare of people.
 

The welfare schemes of the government, chiefly under the right to education, the right to employment and proposed schemes under right to food and the right to health are all fraught with serious economic danger. The right to eduction has not helped improvement in quality education. The need of the hour is not simply bringing kids to school but to empower them with quality and competitive education. Only then will the teeming millions can take on the dominating world economies. The drop out rates and declining quality of education must be wrest immediately. For this to achieve the prime minister and his ministers should have worked in close coordination with the state governments but the politics prevailed over good 'welfare' sense.

Right to employment through MNREGS has only encouraged corruption and eaten up tax payers' money. Food security and health bills will aggravate the situation only. These two politically ambitious schemes will in all probability fall flat as there is an absolute lack of adequate administrative machinery to deliver the goods. The end result will be fleecing the tax payers, which include even those who may be the targetted beneficiary.

Finally, the Prime Minister feels that India's relation with the comity of nations has improved. This holds true only if one excludes everything except business. The neighbours constantly keep teasing India. China has made at least four serious incursions into Indian territories during UPA's rule, the latest being in Despang area, wherein Chinese forced India to compromise on border security vigil. Pakistan has not shown any intent of assuaging India's concerns. Bangladesh does not shy away from challenging India.

Nepal keeps pricking it and uses China threat to counter its southern neighbour. Sri Lanka has openly contested India's rights in the sea waters. India too has failed to grab the opportunities to cement ties with the island nation in recent past paving way for greater cooperation between Sri Lanka and China. India remained practically a mute spectator while Maldives plunged into a chaos. India has faced many diplomatic embarrassments at the hands of Italy, Argentina, Iran and a host of other nations in past nine years, a period which the Prime Minister chose to reflect upon. The only bright diplomatic spot that is visible on the UPA's face if nuclear deal with the US and subsequent approval by the nuclear suppliers group. But, the deal is still controversial and can be judged only in longer term.

Considering that the UPA-2 has entered into its final year, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's claims may not go down well with people, who can see through the veil of numbers and phrases. The UPA has sounded the poll bugle, it is now time for people to prepare for voting next year.

Two Years of 'Maa, Maati, Maanush' and Mamata

Maverick leader Mamata Banerjee completed two years as the chief minister of West Bengal after ending thirty five years of communist rule. This is not a long enough time to see the results of the change. But, it is not so short a period to not to throw up signs of improvement. Sadly, both the results and signs are missing from the spectre of hope in West Bengal.

Mamata Banerjee made the Trinamool Congress the force that it is chiefly on two counts; one, the obsolete model of governance by the Left Front and second, the rising aspiration of people in the state. Two developmental conflicts at Singur and Nandigram proved to be the point of critical mass for a revolution like change of power in West Bengal. On both the occasions, Mamata Banerjee gave the call, 'Maa, Maati, Maanush'. But, it seems she has forgotten every thing that she promised during her campaign for ascendancy.

In the very first year of her rule, Mamata faced one the most embarrassing and shameful incidents when a couple of hospitals in the state turned into mortuaries. More than a hundred infants died in the incubators in hospitals like BC Roy memorial and others. Mamata Banerjee first chose to ignore the deaths, followed it up by terming the deaths as drama and finally blamed it on the previous left front government. The 'Maa' of the slogan was left totally betrayed.

Mamata rose to the chair of chief minister in West Bengal using the ladders of Singur and Nandigram. Tata Motors' manufacturing unit was to come up at Singur, where land acquisition had been done, rather controversially. Mamata and the leaders of the Bhoomi Ucched Pratirodh Committee believed so the least. At Nandigram, Salim Group of Indonesia was to establish a chemical factory. Both industrial employment oriented projects were sacrificed at the altar of Mamata's politics. When she sworn in as the chief minister, many believed that an amicable and pro-people solution would be found for the two 'problems'. Nothing of that sort has happened till date.

At both Singur and Nandigram, two kinds of farmers were involved. One, who gave their land willingly and two, those who claimed that they did so under coercion or allurement. In any case, they have not got their land back even though the two projects have long been shelved. The matters are caught in legal tangles rendering many farmers on the verge of beggary. Mamata's promises to 'Maati and Maanush' fell flat. Her government did launch a scheme to meet the food requirements of the people of the affected region but the well known inefficiency of the public distribution system has not served any good.

Mamata Banerjee always accused the Left Front government of carrying out political murders and silencing opposition, thus denying the right to freedom of expression. She seems to have mastered the art herself. Political murders have only upped in West Bengal's interior. Her attacks on the intelligentsia have come under sharp criticism and condemnation nationwide. Even Mahashweta Devi has chosen to part ways with the TMC chief.

Corruption is only getting institutionalized in the state. Saradha scam and company's links with Mamata Banerjee and her party leaders are too well known to be mistaken. Amidst such adversity, never has been seen the leader that the people of West Bengal expected Mamata Banerjee to be as the leader of 'Poribortan'. She has always been found wanting.

In the midst of such a gloomy affair, the latest economic data gives some hope, with state's finance minister, Amit Mitra striving hard to modernize the economics of the state. The state has registered over 7.5% GDP growth rate in the last financial year. Still, employment generation has not been enough in two years, the agricultural production is not rising at an inspiring rate, manufacturing is yet to get a push and services have grown at less than 10% rate, which is not sufficient for a state like West Bengal with large and extremely dense population base.

Now that Mamata Banerjee's rule has entered into its third year, the chief minister can not afford to remain indifferent to the extent of being abusive in her approach to dealing with the problems of 'Maa, Maati, Maanush, which projected her to glory.

(I wrote it for merinews: http://www.merinews.com/article/west-bengal-two-years-of-maa-maati-maanush/15885821.shtml)

UPA's fact file: Bharat Smiling?

Politics is much like our lives. We try to look positive and vibrant whenever we decide to fight a gloom and strive to come out of it. The ultimate hope resides in prayers to god. In the case of politics, god is people, the voters, who, all the politicians, like mortal human beings, think can be fooled. The Bharat Smiling campaign of the UPA II, presumably the last of the UPAs makes one think on these lines. Millions of followers of Indian politics would immediately draw a comparison between the India Shining of  NDA regime and this one. However, the present ruling dispensation has vehemently denied that the latter is a caricature of the former.

The campaign in-charge and Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tewari claims that the India Shining campaign was a smug while Bharat Smiling is a humble one. The tag line for Bharat Smiling reads, "Many Miles We Have Come, But Many More We Still Have To Go'. An informed student of Indian politics would wish Tewari knew former prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru's liking for Robert Frost's composition, "Woods are lovely, dark and deep/ But, I have miles to go/ Before I sleep/ Before I sleep". Anyways, while UPA II claims Bharat to be smiling let's focus on some of the facts emerging from the wailing India.

India has many shades of reality. Politically and journalistically corruption seems to be the only and the biggest problem ailing the country. But if we bend our knees a bit and get a reasonably realistic view of ground situation, we would find more pressing problems like lack of viable employment, lack of quality education at affordable cost, lack of quality food to all and absence of adequate health machinery. Combine this with the exponential growth (in numbers) of aspiring youth and one will see a scary picture hanging across the length and breadth of the country.  

 

Economics and Employment

 

First, let's look at the economic reality of the country and see whether Bharat is really smiling.

Broadly speaking India achieved a growth rate of 4.96 percent in 2012-13 for its 1.23 billion people, who form the largest congregation of the poorest sea of humanity on the planet. Agriculture and allied sectors are contributing the least to the GDP signaling that largest chunk of population is either economically redundant or extremely inefficient. Manufacturing sector has not been giving enough hope for the redundant populace, who are anyways not skilled and trained for industries. Manufacturing sector though contributes over a quarter to the GDP, but finds itself in a whirlpool of government's policy paralysis. Services contribute nearly 60 percent to India's GDP, a sign of paradigm shift in development toeing the line of the developed economies. But, here it means that only a fraction of India has grown so much that it eclipses the rest. (Many believe that India is progressing and Bharat is trailing.)

Now, let's see the UPA's response and also contribution to this economic state. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme was launched between 2006, becoming fully operational in 2010. The MNREGS guarantees one hundred days of work to one person per family in a rural area. The official figures say that nearly twenty lakh rupees have been spent on the scheme till now. This might have brought UPA more votes in last parliamentary elections but it has not served country well. 

The Comptroller and Auditor General finds the scheme flawed in implementation (by states, though) upto 96% meaning that practically all the rupees spent on the scheme flowed into drains. Further, it has failed in creating the number of jobs it was expected to during its operation. Reports suggest that there has been a 26% decline in man-days of work hitting the dalits and the tribals the worst. Their employment status has declined by 47% and 41% respectively over the period of MNREGS operation. (The government's reply to Parliament) The overall rate of unemployment in India was 9.3% in 2012 and is expected to be 9.4% in 2013.
 

Education and Empowerment

 
The worrying employment scenario could be bettered with quality education and skill training. The UPA introduced the Right to Education making education compulsory for children of 6-14 years. But, recent reports from the ministry of human resource development clearly tell that the standard of education has gone down in the past decade and that the recent policies are responsible for this decline. Moreover, school drop out rates are also alarming for a country which fosters the largest mass of illiterate people. The drop out rates for class five is 30%, which increases to 85% in class eight. If the monumental right to education act has achieved merely this at the cost of more than two lakh crores of rupees. The country needs to put its working heads together. Higher eduction is no better. Many ministers including the present HRD minister at the centre have already cast aspersions on the ability of premier technical institutions in producing creative professionals.
 

Food (In)security

 

India is a nation of surplus production and hungry population. Hunger and Malnutrition report (HUNGaMA) released by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a couple of years ago highlighted the health of this ever growing nation. More 42% children were malnourished in 2011. The situation has not improved much since then. India can boast of a total food-grain production of 260 million tonnes and also of the theoretical availability of food-grain per capita at 444 grams (in 20112), but the ground reality is betrayed by various media reports of deaths caused by hunger every now and then. And, this could happen even in the busy city of Varanasi.

Meanwhile, politics is in full swing over the food security bill, which could well prove to be another MNREGS. The UPA government plans to fill the stomachs of 67 percent of Indian populace with the proposed food security scheme through its defunct public distribution system. The food for all scheme hopes to cover two-third of the entire population and is expected to tax the rest 1.25 lakh crore of rupees every year. This huge amount of tax payers money is at the risk of going down the PDS drains given that the system has inefficiency of 44 percent. One can imagine where the proposed scheme may be heading to. 

Providing wheat @Rs 2/kg, rice @Rs 3/kg and millets @Re 1/kg may sound very good for people only at face value, but it is, actually, bad management of a country which has one-fourth of the hungry people on the globe with number exceeding 230 millions. While the food production in India is breaking all records, the warehouses and store-houses fail to accommodate all the grains. Every year, lakhs of tonnes of foodgrains rot at several places in the country prompting the Supreme Court to direct the government in 2011 to distribute the grains among the poor.

 

Health

 

India has the dubious distinction of being the world leader in maternal and child mortality despite a booming health and hospital industry, and resultant highly acclaimed and appreciated medical tourism. The official records show that nearly half of India is undernourished. According to the World Health Organization's finding India annually records the maximum number of deaths of pre-term babies, malnourished and stunted children, anaemic women, children with birth defects, TB infections and MDR-TB cases, rabies deaths, new leprosy cases and oral cancer.

On the other hand, the country is heading to become the diabetes and dementia capital of the world in near future. The basic cause for all this is attributed to very low public spending on health. This explains why private hospitals have mushroomed all over the country, but quality treatment is still out of the reach of general masses. The government's expenditure on health is 3.9% of the GDP, which is lesser than that in even Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Right to information

 

Amid the gloomy picture, the UPA government can really boast of having given the right to information to people by passing an act in 2006. It is, however, altogether a different story that the same instrument has proved to be Frankenstein's monster for the UPA. The Act has exposed the not only the UPA government but many state governments as well. The UPA bosses understand the predicament of this Act much better now. This explains why most of the ministries do not provide complete information to the office of the central information commissioner.

According to one estimate, the rate of default at the ministerial level in the UPA government as to replying to RTI queries is over 30%. So, with an apparent intention of slaying its own angel, RTI, the UPA is hoping that the electors in India will look at Bharat smiling and refuse to see through the game.

Last but not the least, consider this. 35.5% India still lives without electricity; the Transparency International ranks India at 94th among 174 nations on corruption perception index; large portions of farmland in the country awaits its share of green revolution; the area of farmers' suicide continues to widen and comity of nations led by China, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh continues to ignore India's interests, notwithstanding, the UPA managers expects (may be like an ostrich) Bharat to be Smiling!