Congress: A political outfit or political business of a family?

After Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s “well-orchestrated” dramatics over the ordinance on the convicted politicians, the politics has taken a curious turn over the issue. Rahul Gandhi may have wanted to distance himself from the Congress party and the UPA government by publicly denouncing an orchestra of the Congress core-group and the union cabinet thinking that the credibility of the party and the government is eroding, but in the process he has also inflicted some damage on his own credibility as a political leader. His Rambo-act on Friday at the Press Club of India in New Delhi reflects the politician within Rahul Gandhi and not a leader.

It would be foolish to think that Rahul did not know anything about the Congress and the government’s move to annul the Supreme Court order dated July 10th. The Supreme Court had  held that convicted MPs and MLAs would be ineligible to contest election if sentenced to more than two years’ jail term in a criminal case.

But, if Rahul really did not know about it, he proved himself an indifferent and pathetic parliamentarian as a bill to this effect had been introduced in the Rajya Sabha during the monsoon session after due clearance.

Or, if he knew yet let the party and government do what they wanted to do, he proved himself a politician not sincere in fighting criminalization of politics. And, on all counts, the theatrical appearance and castigation of the deeds of the government was an act of a politician, who was trying to do some damage control. In the process, however, he has exposed himself, his party and the government.

Let’s consider another if. Suppose, Rahul Gandhi was genuinely concerned and anguished at the attempt by his party and the government at shielding some of the convicted or to be convicted criminals among politicians, and he only reacted late gauging the public sentiment, which gave him courage to speak out in public against his party and government.

What does this convey?

Rahul’s stand is a public negation of the policies of the Congress president and his all-powerful mother Sonia Gandhi, who approved of the Ordinance on the convicted politicians to nullify the apex court order. If Rahul prevails, which seems to be the only option available before the government now, it would mark an end to Sonia regime in the party. But, this comes with a rider that the Friday’s storming the Sonia bastion of Congress by Rahul must not have come without her underlying approval and thus, an end to her regime with her approval.

So, Sonia appears to have approved of quite a few things in past one week: an ordinance to perpetuate criminalization of politics, putting credibility of the party and the government at risk, Rahul’s elevation to the super-politician level and an end to her own supremacy! Contrastingly incredible!

Friday also deliered some message to the Prime Minister, who is travelling abroad apparently on an important job. He is left with two options, either to withdraw the ordinance on convicted politicians and confirm what he said concluding his last foreign trip that he was ready to serve under Rahul. That he is actually serving under Rahul, who would be seen like the Super PM. Second option is to go down fighting after having faced so much political humiliation and seen audacious insubordination in full public view.

Moreover, Manmohan Singh's is not a standalone case. Some other senior leaders of the Congress party and ministers in the UPA government have complained of humiliation. But the question is, will these leaders make an attempt to salvage the prestige of the grand old party? Most unlikely. Will they come out and make Rahul fall in the line? Will the collective wisdom of the Congress leaders convince people that the Congress is political organization not political business of a family?

UPA's fact file: Bharat Smiling?

Politics is much like our lives. We try to look positive and vibrant whenever we decide to fight a gloom and strive to come out of it. The ultimate hope resides in prayers to god. In the case of politics, god is people, the voters, who, all the politicians, like mortal human beings, think can be fooled. The Bharat Smiling campaign of the UPA II, presumably the last of the UPAs makes one think on these lines. Millions of followers of Indian politics would immediately draw a comparison between the India Shining of  NDA regime and this one. However, the present ruling dispensation has vehemently denied that the latter is a caricature of the former.

The campaign in-charge and Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tewari claims that the India Shining campaign was a smug while Bharat Smiling is a humble one. The tag line for Bharat Smiling reads, "Many Miles We Have Come, But Many More We Still Have To Go'. An informed student of Indian politics would wish Tewari knew former prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru's liking for Robert Frost's composition, "Woods are lovely, dark and deep/ But, I have miles to go/ Before I sleep/ Before I sleep". Anyways, while UPA II claims Bharat to be smiling let's focus on some of the facts emerging from the wailing India.

India has many shades of reality. Politically and journalistically corruption seems to be the only and the biggest problem ailing the country. But if we bend our knees a bit and get a reasonably realistic view of ground situation, we would find more pressing problems like lack of viable employment, lack of quality education at affordable cost, lack of quality food to all and absence of adequate health machinery. Combine this with the exponential growth (in numbers) of aspiring youth and one will see a scary picture hanging across the length and breadth of the country.  

 

Economics and Employment

 

First, let's look at the economic reality of the country and see whether Bharat is really smiling.

Broadly speaking India achieved a growth rate of 4.96 percent in 2012-13 for its 1.23 billion people, who form the largest congregation of the poorest sea of humanity on the planet. Agriculture and allied sectors are contributing the least to the GDP signaling that largest chunk of population is either economically redundant or extremely inefficient. Manufacturing sector has not been giving enough hope for the redundant populace, who are anyways not skilled and trained for industries. Manufacturing sector though contributes over a quarter to the GDP, but finds itself in a whirlpool of government's policy paralysis. Services contribute nearly 60 percent to India's GDP, a sign of paradigm shift in development toeing the line of the developed economies. But, here it means that only a fraction of India has grown so much that it eclipses the rest. (Many believe that India is progressing and Bharat is trailing.)

Now, let's see the UPA's response and also contribution to this economic state. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme was launched between 2006, becoming fully operational in 2010. The MNREGS guarantees one hundred days of work to one person per family in a rural area. The official figures say that nearly twenty lakh rupees have been spent on the scheme till now. This might have brought UPA more votes in last parliamentary elections but it has not served country well. 

The Comptroller and Auditor General finds the scheme flawed in implementation (by states, though) upto 96% meaning that practically all the rupees spent on the scheme flowed into drains. Further, it has failed in creating the number of jobs it was expected to during its operation. Reports suggest that there has been a 26% decline in man-days of work hitting the dalits and the tribals the worst. Their employment status has declined by 47% and 41% respectively over the period of MNREGS operation. (The government's reply to Parliament) The overall rate of unemployment in India was 9.3% in 2012 and is expected to be 9.4% in 2013.
 

Education and Empowerment

 
The worrying employment scenario could be bettered with quality education and skill training. The UPA introduced the Right to Education making education compulsory for children of 6-14 years. But, recent reports from the ministry of human resource development clearly tell that the standard of education has gone down in the past decade and that the recent policies are responsible for this decline. Moreover, school drop out rates are also alarming for a country which fosters the largest mass of illiterate people. The drop out rates for class five is 30%, which increases to 85% in class eight. If the monumental right to education act has achieved merely this at the cost of more than two lakh crores of rupees. The country needs to put its working heads together. Higher eduction is no better. Many ministers including the present HRD minister at the centre have already cast aspersions on the ability of premier technical institutions in producing creative professionals.
 

Food (In)security

 

India is a nation of surplus production and hungry population. Hunger and Malnutrition report (HUNGaMA) released by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a couple of years ago highlighted the health of this ever growing nation. More 42% children were malnourished in 2011. The situation has not improved much since then. India can boast of a total food-grain production of 260 million tonnes and also of the theoretical availability of food-grain per capita at 444 grams (in 20112), but the ground reality is betrayed by various media reports of deaths caused by hunger every now and then. And, this could happen even in the busy city of Varanasi.

Meanwhile, politics is in full swing over the food security bill, which could well prove to be another MNREGS. The UPA government plans to fill the stomachs of 67 percent of Indian populace with the proposed food security scheme through its defunct public distribution system. The food for all scheme hopes to cover two-third of the entire population and is expected to tax the rest 1.25 lakh crore of rupees every year. This huge amount of tax payers money is at the risk of going down the PDS drains given that the system has inefficiency of 44 percent. One can imagine where the proposed scheme may be heading to. 

Providing wheat @Rs 2/kg, rice @Rs 3/kg and millets @Re 1/kg may sound very good for people only at face value, but it is, actually, bad management of a country which has one-fourth of the hungry people on the globe with number exceeding 230 millions. While the food production in India is breaking all records, the warehouses and store-houses fail to accommodate all the grains. Every year, lakhs of tonnes of foodgrains rot at several places in the country prompting the Supreme Court to direct the government in 2011 to distribute the grains among the poor.

 

Health

 

India has the dubious distinction of being the world leader in maternal and child mortality despite a booming health and hospital industry, and resultant highly acclaimed and appreciated medical tourism. The official records show that nearly half of India is undernourished. According to the World Health Organization's finding India annually records the maximum number of deaths of pre-term babies, malnourished and stunted children, anaemic women, children with birth defects, TB infections and MDR-TB cases, rabies deaths, new leprosy cases and oral cancer.

On the other hand, the country is heading to become the diabetes and dementia capital of the world in near future. The basic cause for all this is attributed to very low public spending on health. This explains why private hospitals have mushroomed all over the country, but quality treatment is still out of the reach of general masses. The government's expenditure on health is 3.9% of the GDP, which is lesser than that in even Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Right to information

 

Amid the gloomy picture, the UPA government can really boast of having given the right to information to people by passing an act in 2006. It is, however, altogether a different story that the same instrument has proved to be Frankenstein's monster for the UPA. The Act has exposed the not only the UPA government but many state governments as well. The UPA bosses understand the predicament of this Act much better now. This explains why most of the ministries do not provide complete information to the office of the central information commissioner.

According to one estimate, the rate of default at the ministerial level in the UPA government as to replying to RTI queries is over 30%. So, with an apparent intention of slaying its own angel, RTI, the UPA is hoping that the electors in India will look at Bharat smiling and refuse to see through the game.

Last but not the least, consider this. 35.5% India still lives without electricity; the Transparency International ranks India at 94th among 174 nations on corruption perception index; large portions of farmland in the country awaits its share of green revolution; the area of farmers' suicide continues to widen and comity of nations led by China, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh continues to ignore India's interests, notwithstanding, the UPA managers expects (may be like an ostrich) Bharat to be Smiling!

Food Security Bill: How Secure Is It?

The Food Security Bill is now before Parliament. The Bill aims at providing food and nutritional security to the millions of Indians. In spirit, the legislation is well aimed at wiping out hunger from the face of the second most populace nation, which has the highest number of hungry, malnourished, under-nourished population in the world. The objective of the NAC-prepared Bill is also noble because India still suffers from most basic type of poverty with almost 74 percent of children being anaemic. This bill may help fighting this. But, the food bill has raised many an eyebrow of experts.

The critics claim that the food security bill is the worst kind of pork barrel populism. The timing of the food bill suits the political ambitions of the ruling UPA with important assembly elections just round the corner and a general election is just over 2 years from now and for which tempo has started to build up. At this time, opposition is coming particularly from those states which either have a long way to go for the assembly polls or are comfortably placed vis-à-vis their political battle with the Congress or its partners in the UPA. Notable among the opposing states are Tamil Nadu under AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa, Odisha under BJD chief Navin Patnaik and Bihar under JD-U leader Nitish Kumar. The states are not ready to cough up for a project that the UPA or the Congress would take credit for in future polls.

The food security bill which aims to cover nearly three-fourth of the rural population and almost half of the urban has some problems. First, it just extends existing programmes, which have proved beyond doubt too inefficient and corrupt to fill the empty stomach of our impoverished populace as well as the fattened bellies of greedy politicians and officers.

Another problem with the food security bill is that there is a question of affordability with states making it clear that they would not spare their funds for a populist programme of the Congress party being thrust upon them at the behest of party president Sonia Gandhi, under whose leadership, the National Advisory Council prepared the Food Security Bill and the UPA is trying to implement. Also, the states are wary of being this pet programme of Sonia Gandhi being put into place totally on central finance. This is the reason why Jayalalithaa has said that the welfare schemes should be left to the respective state governments citing federal nature of Indian polity/ Constitution. No matter, if the states conveniently ask for similar schemes if those suit them.

The UPA's food bill plan will push the food subsidies to over Rs 94 thousand crores per year. Centre's finances are already in bad shape and the central government can't afford just to keep spending as it would further not only burden the state exchequer but will also help prices going further north. This may, in turn, put pressure on the UPA government, which has itself been advocating cut in subsidies of all kinds including those being given on food items through Public Distribution System. But, at the same time opting for economic prudence by cutting down subsidies would provide cash to the UPA government, but might cost votes, which the Congress may not be prepared for. So, the Food Security Bill remains contentious on both accounts of security-- one of hungry millions and also of the Congress-led UPA government.

Custodial Death: Omar In Pain, Congress Eyes Gain

Custodial death of National Conference worker, Syed Mohammad Yousuf has fuelled the sleeping aspirations of not only the PDP in Jammu and Kashmir but also the friend and ally, Congress. The alliance partner of Abdullah’s National Conference seems to be allying with the PDP of Mehbooba Mufti, although, covertly, in keeping Chief Minister Omar Abdullah in discomfort. As the plot is thickening over the death of Syed Yousuf after Abdullah Junior handed him over to police, the Congress leaders of Kashmir have begun to romanticize their brightening prospects anticipating the downfall of their ally and friend in state politics. Even the political observers in the
state feel that the Congress could be the real beneficiary of the ongoing crisis, which got worsened on Saturday morning, when Omar Abdullah’s police resorted to baton charge the PDP protestors demanding his resignation. The separatists, too, have joined Mehbooba Mufti in baying for Omar’s blood.

Now, consider this. Omar Abdullah will be completing his half tenure of six years in first week of January next year giving the Congress an opportunity to think of taking the relay baton from an alienated chief minister, though the two parties are not at an agreement of transfer of power like the one that the congress had with the PDP in the previous regime. The great opportunist party, that the congress is, will not shy away from making things practically unworkable for Omar Abdullah. And, if the signals emerging from both the Congress headquarters and the stakeholders in the Jammu and Kashmir politics are to be believed, the party is well on its course.

The only thing that is perhaps withholding the Congressmen from the valley from speaking their minds out is Rahul Gandhi’s personal friendship with Omar Abdullah and the former’s apparent commitment to the latter to keep intact his chair till the very last workable situation in the state. But, during his recent visit to the valley, Rahul Gandhi had give a patient hearing to Congress leaders wishing for a change of guard in Srinagar.

Notwithstanding, some of the state Congress leaders have started openly demanding a Congress chief minister in Jammu and Kashmir post-January, 2012 subject to approval by party president, Sonia Gandhi. This demand had begun as early as in May and June this year, when state Congress leaders asked for rotation of Chief Minister’s chair as they were unhappy with Omar capturing all the limelight with Congressmen being treated only as poor cousins in the corridors of power in the state. And, senior leaders including Dr Karan Singh, Saifuddin Soz and Makhan Lal Fotedar had assured the junior leaders of conveying their sentiments to the party high command in New Delhi. The views have come to take deeper grounds now in party headquarters and lobbying is underway to convince the top leadership to think on those lines and negotiate with the Abdullahs.

Also at work are two old camps of J&K Congress, namely those of union minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and J&K PCC president Saifuddin Soz with former in being favour at the 10, Janpath. Soz supporters find a realistic chance for him to get the coveted seat in Srinagar, but sources also indicate strongly that Azad may be interested in the job if hints come from the top. This internal tussle for supremacy in Srinagar may prove beneficial for Omar Abdullah but then PDP is also, according to sources close to Mehbooba Mufti, ready to support a Congress government should National Conference be dumped. So, the Congress is weighing its options while Omar tries hard to save his chair and salvage his image and re-enforce his command in the state. The political situation in Jammu and Kashmir looks tailor-made for a Congress comeback lest Omar finds a magic wand to ward off all the ‘evil’ forces.

Sonia Appears Before Gandhi

Congress president Sonia Gandhi made her first public appearance on Sunday after her surgery in the United States recently. Along with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the UPA chief paid homage to Mahatma Gandhi on his 142nd birth anniversary at Rajghat.

Sonia returned to India on September 08. Since then, Sonia had avoided public meetings and functions even though the UPA government witnessed a bitter clash between two of its senior ministers. She dealt with the crisis but stayed away from public giving rise to speculations that Sonia may be planning to pass on the mantle of the party to her son, Rahul Gandhi. Sundayz public appearance is being viewed as a signal that Sonia is still at the helm of the affairs both in the congress party and the UPA.

Sonia Gandhi is still recuperating from her surgery, but she has got herself into handling issues plaguing the Manmohan Singh govt including infighting and court developments in 2G scam and cash for votes scandal. Sonia is said to be working on alternate plans for a possible adverse court judgements post-Dussehra vacation, when hearing on several scams resume. The forced patch between two senior cabinet ministers over secret 2G note, effected by Sonia Gandhi last week was part of her alternate plans to navigate the government's ship through the turbulent waters of scandals and scams.

Sonia Gandhi's partial resumption of party work and her first public appearance at Rajghat on Mahatma Gandhi's 142nd anniversary comes at a time when the opposition is going berserk in its criticism of the scam tainted UPA government. Her public appearance also came a couple of days after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh alleged that there are forces at work to destabilize the government. With this in backdrop, Sonia Gandhiz appearance before Mahatma Gandhi's samadhi seems to be an attempt to make an emphatic statement that she is not losing grip over nation's politics.

Sonia Gandhi had given indications of taking command of the party affairs some days ago itself when she summoned Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot in the wake of Bharatpur communal violence and two state ministers being dragged into controversies surrounding women, one of them is traceless while the other has died. Also, Sonia Gandhi called on Lok Sabha speaker Meira Kumar last week, which according to sources yielded into Kumar giving sanction to prosecute BJP MP Ashok Argal in the cash for votes scandal. Clearly, Sonia wants to put her message in a very straightforward style, that has been typical of her in past two decades.

2G Scam: Manmohan Presides Over Corruption

Corruption has coexisted with governance since time immemorial. India has witnessed royal corruption throughout its history of administration. Favouritism and manipulation have always kept the stirred up the recipe of politics in the country. So, it was nothing new the the two successive UPA government resorted to the same age old (mal)practice of governance. And, there are many, including the public perception, saying that the Manmohan Singh's government is the most corrupt government post-Independence. The allegation does hold some water. Manmohan Singh's government has seen scams after scams at a pace that had been unprecedented. The NREGS scam, the NHRM scam, the CWG scam, the cash for votes scam, petroleum scam, the Air India scam etc etc and above all the 2G spectrum scam.

Let's focus on the 2G scam with a general background of the spectrum that finds itself in the centre of a huge controversy. Spectrum is an invisible band in atmosphere. It behaves in a certain way depending on the radio character of the waves passing through or hitting it. The scientists, say at ISRO or DRDO, spend crores of (tax payers') money to understand its behaviour in different bands and then they develop mechanism to use the bands or spectrum in the sky for all types of communication. Once created, the band is available for all but for costly technology it is controlled by govt through laws. The government has its own mechanism to let people derive benefit from this discovery made out of their money paid to the government through taxes. The mechanism involves an interface, we can call it telecom service providers or big corporate houses. They are given licenses to use a certain space in the spectrum (by means of frequencies) for operating their business of telecommunications. They provide service to people and then charge money for the same. Interestingly, people pay again for using something they have already paid for its creation! But, this is how governance goes.

In 2G scam case, the government had distributed band widths among the telecom companies on the basis of first come first serve principle. Such a principle is good for things that hold no price. The government, including the previous regime under Atal Behari Vajpayee, considered spectrum as just invisible object and is of no value (conveniently) ignoring the well known fact that the companies will mint money by facilitating chats among people. Auction was another option before the government, but it preferred to consider the spectrum created after investing people's money as an ordinary object. Just to digress, I would like remind people of the power of auction by recalling the same at the IPL auction. Had the government resorted to the second option, it might have recovered a good part of the investment made out of tax payers' money or might have afforded to give some relaxation to the populace by announcing some tax relief to them.

But, when alter things (agendas) prime the considerations, even the most common wisdom takes the back seat. The same thing happened with the 2G spectrum allocation. And, the CAG of India calibrated that the process or the dereliction of duties by the government has had cost the nation, the tax payers an income of about Rs. 1.76 lakh crore. Now, this was a huge amount that the collective wealth of the nation was deprived of. Government argues that the CAG calculations are not sound and whatever loss was incurred to the exchequer was only imaginary or virtual. The government did not have the money in the first place, which the CAG talked about. True, that the government never had that money in question. But, it is also true that the government was denied to have that amount of money by those running the government. But, then again, the people running the Manmohan Singh government are not honest enough to admit that they caused the nation a loss to the tune of what calibrated by the CAG, the most authentic audit body in the country.

Two things are more shocking in the entire episode. One, that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh let all this happen while every decision was approved by his cabinet. Secondly, Manmohan Singh is widely hailed as an able economist but surprisingly, he presided over the greatest loot of virtual money in India during his tenure as the Prime Minister. The changing organizational structures of the 2G spectrum allottees (companies) betray either the short-sightedness or culpability of the Manmohan Singh government. The latest secret note (which was seen and approved by Pranab Mukherjee) from the finance ministry to the PMO and former telecom minister Dayanidhi Maran's letter to the prime minister have broken the shield of defence of the entire UPA machinery.

In this context, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is holding an all important meeting tonight, ironically in the United States. Pranab Mukherjee's tussle with P Chidambaram is well known in the inner circle of the UPA establishment. But, ever since the spat came out in the open over the issue of 2G scam has eroded the thin crust of credibility to this government. Pranab Mukherjee has sought and got couriered (as reports suggest) a bunch of files related 2G spectrum allocation from his ministry all the way to New York. This meeting between the two topmost leaders of the country on perhaps the biggest scam at venue outside the country speaks volume about the mess that the UPA government presently finds itself in. The Prime Minister and UPA chairperson, Sonia Gandhi must be making all efforts to keep the 2G taint away from their respective offices. It is really tough on the economist and presumably honest prime minister to preside over perceptibly the most corrupt government ever.