Bihar poised for battle of ballots

So, what emerges from the BJP is this: the party continues to develop cold feet in finding a face other than the magical Narendra Modi. We saw this in Mahararashtra and also in Haryana where they projected the prime minister as the chief minister’s patron and succeeded in getting people’s mandate. But, that they could not find a face from Maharashtra BJP also remains a damning fact though there were so many leaders within the party in the state.

In Delhi we saw the opposite. They had won all the seven parliamentary constituencies in Delhi, though several voters, who actually got them elected can’t recognise them all by face. In the assembly polls, the BJP could not find a face that could be projected and rallied around. They parachuted a former IPS officer who had rubbed shoulder with the incumbent chief minister of Delhi. And, it turned out to be a classic case of how to lose an election.

Now, the stage is set for Bihar assembly polls, which would be held in September-October. BJP under Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combination looks formidable despite losing Delhi Darbar. The opposition knows this quite well. And, this explains why Lalu Prasad Yadav forgave his tormentor Nitish Kumar and not only joined hands but accepted his leadership. Lalu Prasad’s statement that he “is ready to drink every poison to defeat communal forces of BJP” tells how an astute political mind from the opposition rank reads Modi-Shah combination.

Lalu is a political outcast at the moment, can’t contest polls, therefore can’t be as effective as he could have been. Lalu understands that Bihar has changed a lot in the last one decade. Youth are no longer craving for caste pride. They are aspiring, dreaming of living life king size. Mobile phone internet has changed the mindset of the youth, who are the biggest force in the state. So, he recognises the threat that Modi would pose when he would sell dreams to the teeming millions of Bihar.

Narendra Modi’s rise in BJP ranks means that the myths of caste barriers are also being broken in Bihar. Modi’s presence neutralises BJP’s forward caste image and also Nitish’s now defunct social engineering of Mahadalit, who sensed their recognition in the chief minister’s theory but in Modi, they sense fructification of their aspiration, ambition and also liberation.

The last few polls in Bihar have seen the traditional voting pattern being breached. Yadava’s support for RJD has been declining. Kurmi-Koeri support for JDU is also showing signs of drift. Mahadalits have understood their electoral worth and are not blind voters this time around. Congress’ organizational weakness means that the upper caste voters would tend to align with the BJP, who have unwavering support of the traders, the Baniyas. 

It means that almost 17% of Muslims could be vital and decisive for Bihar after at least two assembly polls. This is why Modi-bashing is attaining high pitch in Bihar and TV studios. And, on the counter-hand, we saw the prime minister reading a verse from Quran to underline the significance of knowledge.

There are several other factors in Bihar this time around. The Manjhis and the Pappus are potential spoilsports. Jitan Ram Manjhi is certainly bound to pull a sizeable portion of Mahadalits from the JDU’s shelter to saffron camp by playing victim card. Pappu Yadav with his new party can play a bigger role in Kosi belt and among Yadavas. Manjhi may be a factor in central-south Bihar in about 20 assembly segments while Pappu Yadav may affect results in about 70 assembly seats of Kosi-Mithilanchal belt.

So, Bihar is going to be an interesting battle of ballots once again. BJP could do well if it can slay its own demon of one-up-man-ship in the party and that too in time. Though, signs are not good with SuMo rejecting party’s state in-charge Ananth Kumar’s proposition that NaMo would be the face for assembly polls. JDU-RJD combo is banking heavily on this very divisive factor associated with Narendra Modi, to stage an electoral coup in a state where they have been ruling for more than two decades and a half.