Opposition vs Modi vs TINA

Photo: Twitter/@INCIndia

For record, I have not been able to have 'respect' for politicians. In my experience of political reporting and writing, I have found politicians to be extremely opportunist and mean people at business. Humans are, it has been my impression, just tools for politicians across the spectrum from extreme left to ultra right.

But as things stand today, only politicians can rule the country and since we have a self-proclaimed democracy, we are required to choose a leader. Choosing a leader is a process, which must be a decision akin to an informed choice.

Since politicians have been able to acquire more right to privacy than We, The People of India, knowing their true character has become difficult. Income tax department can place your financial details in public domain but an RTI application about a politician will return saying the information sought is very personal in nature. And, then the same politician will go about hankering about transparency in public life. They make every attempt to keep crucial information required for making an informed choice.

So, as the election approaches, the people have minimal information about the leaders and parties they may be forced to elect to power for next five years. On the available evidence, Narendra Modi appears more convincing. Not because he is a better leader but because he is a better communicator.

Modi appears to be in lead not because of his policies adopted or ignored in the last five years but because of the fact that the Opposition simply doesn't inspire enough confidence. Modi, to my understanding of politics, became Modi because of myopic politics of Sonia Gandhi and the Congress party. There were too many challengers to Modi within the BJP. But, Sonia Gandhi, when she was the most powerful politician of the country, targetted and attacked Modi so much, right from her Maut Ka Saudagar comment, that she brought him at par with the top national leadership. Modi cashed in on his criticism by the top politicians of the then ruling party and turned it to his advantage because he was a better communicator.

Sonia Gandhi's son and successor in the Congress party Rahul Gandhi seems to have not learnt from those mistakes. He doesn't seem to have learnt the lesson properly from the history. Pay some attention to his speeches and one would know that he is playing into the hands of the BJP. The way he has been addressing, mind it addressing not campaigning against, Modi, there has been rudeness - Narendra Modi bolta hai...kahta hai...jhooth bolta hai... This looks surprising given the support Rahul Gandhi and the entire Opposition is getting from the intelligentsia in media and academia.

Plus, Rahul Gandhi and his Congress party keep embarrassing themselves and their supporters. Perhaps calling Pulwama terror attack an accident by Osamaji and Hafiz Sayeed Sahab-fame Digvijaya Singh was not enough for the Congress party that the president Rahul Gandhi himself called Jaish-e-Mohmmed chief as Masood Azharji.

And, if you said it, it is better to admit that it was a slip of tongue. India is changing. Indian youth has changed a lot over the last one decade. Admitting to one's fault is now appreciated even if Modi-like opponent would try to cash in on it. Nitish Kumar in Bihar and Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi - both incidentally in 2015 - have proved this.

Instead of admitting, a spokesman of the party is spent on it to make people believe that it was sarcasm. Dear Congress, when the video is in public domain, anyone can hear it and call your bluff. Trying to cover upa faux pa is bad politics which only may satisfy a feudal lord not the subject, if you still treat the people of India that way.

The Congress already had people like Mani Shankar Taiyar, Digvijaya Singh and Kamal Nath, Rahul Gandhi need not enter the competition if he is serious about harbouring the dream of leading the country as a prime minister. Modi is far superior a communicator to use rewire the defused verbal salvos to bomb the Congress party back. :Achchhe Din' should remain fresh in the Congress's memory.

It's for people like Rahul Gandhi, who fail to show any consistensy in their public politics, that Modi appears to be armed with TINA - there is no alternative.

To me, five years of BJP-led government has been no different from the Congress-led regime for previous ten years. All are the same. Only the faces have changed not the facets.

Narendra Modi's Independence Day 2017 speech: PM is either ignorant or incorrigibly optimistic

Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Red Fort during his Independence Day speech today. (Screengrab: DD Live Stream)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered his fourth speech from the Red Fort on the Independence Day 2017 today. Historically, the Independence Day speeches have been considered as occasions to showcase the policies of the government.

PM Narendra Modi took the occasion this year to enumerate the achievements of his government. He talked about reforms including demonetisation and GST. But, it looked a bit immature to take credit for launching Mars Mission in nine months. The programme had taken shape during the previous government led by Manmohan Singh.

Narendra Modi also talked about GST but it was also a work in continuation. Demonetisation and surgical strikes were his own completely. Though, many may point that surgical strikes had been conducted in the past as well. But, then no one ever offered any proof before. Narendra Modi government made a bold move not to just own a surgical strike but to shout it aloud so that the message is heard clear and straight both within and without.

Former Prime Ministers HD Deve Gowda and Manmohan Singh at Independence Day celebrations at the Red Fort in New Delhi. (Screengrab: DD Live Streaming)

Narendra Modi talked about ushering a new India by 2022. His new India to have jobs, double income than the present for farmers - which would translate into at least twice as much earning for others as well given the nature and system of our economy, total sanitation, no corruption, no hatred, no filthy competition and almost everything that would make India an ideal nation and society.

Mahatma Buddha and Lord Rama also conceptualised such a society and nation respectively. No one is sure about Lord Rama's period but Mahatma Buddha tried this some 2,500 years ago in Bihar, where only recently a chief minister resigned from the post of chief minister to become the chief minister joining hands with a former chief minister with whom he fought an almost meaningless ego battle.

Even Mahatma Gandhi envisioned an India of his dream. He saw his dream shattering but still had hopes that it would not resurrect once the 'mad nations' woke from their slumber and stopped human slaughter. The Mahatma could not live long enough to endure the pain of his dream being crushed, trampled and consigned to garbage mounds by his own proteges.

Union Minister Smriti Irani at the Independence Day celebration at the Red Fort in New Delhhi. (Screengrab: DD Live Streaming)

For the New India of PM Narendra Modi's vision, his government needs to create 1.3 crore full time employment every year, healthcare facilities need to be modernised and made available 24x7 all the 365 days of the year, burden of judiciary should reduce so that the cases could be disposed in six months after filing, police should be able to complete investigation of a case in two-three months, more than 35 crore people need to get literate and educated, government schools should deliver high quality education across language barrier in every village and ward, Parliament should be debating in five years if the country needed a law dealing with rape as it would vanish from the face of India, women should face no discrimination in homes, at work and public places.

In 1947, a section of people thought with freedom their homes will become happy, corruption would end, police would behave, nepotism would end and suraj would come. BR Ambedkar thought after 15 years of quota, the Dalits would be able to cast away the burden of centuries. In 1974-75, a group of enthusiasts sought if the first freedom failed them another would not as it would be total revolution. In 2011, a handful Indians and TV channel studios made us believe that corruption would be the last things India and Indians want. Next year, similar bunch of street troopers tried to convince India that Indians won't stare at, stalk, harass, molest, sodomise, rape or brutalise a soul in future. So on and so forth. And, here 125 crore people stand waiting for another suraj, the New India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi deserves a salute for believing that India and Indians would bring in an India of his vision in next five years. Either he does not know his 125 crore people or his optimism has turned into an obsession without any cure.

PS: Do I need to underscore here that this blog is only a reflection of one of my brainwave?

Modi deserting Raghuram Rajan bitter but better

The BBC interview of the outgoing RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and his comments about the prime minister betrays the bitter relation between the two top functionaries of governance. Rajan has never shied away from expressing his displeasure at the government’s policies. He has been a very political RBI governor without having affiliation to any political outfit.

In his latest interview with the BBC, Rajan refused to answer a rapid fire question saying “Whatever answer I give will be problematic, so I will just pass.” This shows his utter dislike for the incumbent government. With this statement Rajan may go out at a bold and upfront RBI governor but history may consider him a misfit RBI governor.

If one goes by the role and functions of the RBI as envisaged in its establishment in 1935 and nationalization in 1949, she would not imagine a political RBI. And, this is where Rajan looks a misfit for the role. He remains the academician that he has been for long.

The Banking Regulation Act 1949 and the RBI Act 1953 has given the RBI the power to regulate the banking system. The website of the RBI lays down the following functions of the central bank in India:

Monetary Authority:

• Formulation, implementation and monitoring of the monetary policy.

• Objective: maintaining price stability and ensuring adequate flow of credit to productive sectors.

Regulator and supervisor of the financial system:

• Prescribing broad parameters of banking operations 

• Objective: maintain public confidence in the system, protect depositors' interest and provide cost-effective banking services to the public.

Manager of Foreign Exchange:

• Managing foreign exchange as mandated under the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999.

• Objective: to facilitate external trade and payment and promote orderly development and maintenance of foreign exchange market in India.

Issuer of currency:

• The RBI issues and exchanges or destroys currency and coins not fit for circulation.

• Objective: to give the public adequate quantity of supplies of currency notes and coins and in good quality.

Developmental role:

• Performs a wide range of promotional functions to support national objectives.

Related Functions:

• Banker to the Government: performs merchant banking function for the central and the state governments; also acts as their banker.

• Banker to banks: maintains banking accounts of all scheduled banks.

Clearly, the RBI’s defined role is to be the support system of the government of the day. But, with all academic brilliance, Rajan has failed to implement the laid out mandate. Perhaps, his academic brilliance, his astute understanding of the economy forced him to run a somewhat parallel fiscal policy for the country. (Recall his inflation loaded views on interest rates- not talking of merit, just the mandated role and what Rajan actually did). 

Rajan could not become the next Manmohan Singh, who during his governorship, with all understanding of the then changing world, crumbling cold age economy proved an able support system of the Indira Gandhi government. And, ironically it was Manmohan Singh who honoured a commitment by appointing Rajan the RBI governor. But, it seems Rajan did not learn the art of playing his role according the chair from one of the finest prime ministers of India, that Manmohan Singh was.

It looks bitter that Rajan was not given another term by the Modi government. But, it may actually turn out to be better. Any government under parliamentary form like ours deserves a supporting central bank. An adverse central bank would deviate, deflect and distort government’s policies. It has been happening in India leading a state of policy confusion. India can hardly afford to bear policy confusion as a follow up of policy paralysis.

PS: The author is not suggesting that BJP's insinuating machine (SS) was right in launching a tirade against Rajan.

Bihar poised for battle of ballots

So, what emerges from the BJP is this: the party continues to develop cold feet in finding a face other than the magical Narendra Modi. We saw this in Mahararashtra and also in Haryana where they projected the prime minister as the chief minister’s patron and succeeded in getting people’s mandate. But, that they could not find a face from Maharashtra BJP also remains a damning fact though there were so many leaders within the party in the state.

In Delhi we saw the opposite. They had won all the seven parliamentary constituencies in Delhi, though several voters, who actually got them elected can’t recognise them all by face. In the assembly polls, the BJP could not find a face that could be projected and rallied around. They parachuted a former IPS officer who had rubbed shoulder with the incumbent chief minister of Delhi. And, it turned out to be a classic case of how to lose an election.

Now, the stage is set for Bihar assembly polls, which would be held in September-October. BJP under Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combination looks formidable despite losing Delhi Darbar. The opposition knows this quite well. And, this explains why Lalu Prasad Yadav forgave his tormentor Nitish Kumar and not only joined hands but accepted his leadership. Lalu Prasad’s statement that he “is ready to drink every poison to defeat communal forces of BJP” tells how an astute political mind from the opposition rank reads Modi-Shah combination.

Lalu is a political outcast at the moment, can’t contest polls, therefore can’t be as effective as he could have been. Lalu understands that Bihar has changed a lot in the last one decade. Youth are no longer craving for caste pride. They are aspiring, dreaming of living life king size. Mobile phone internet has changed the mindset of the youth, who are the biggest force in the state. So, he recognises the threat that Modi would pose when he would sell dreams to the teeming millions of Bihar.

Narendra Modi’s rise in BJP ranks means that the myths of caste barriers are also being broken in Bihar. Modi’s presence neutralises BJP’s forward caste image and also Nitish’s now defunct social engineering of Mahadalit, who sensed their recognition in the chief minister’s theory but in Modi, they sense fructification of their aspiration, ambition and also liberation.

The last few polls in Bihar have seen the traditional voting pattern being breached. Yadava’s support for RJD has been declining. Kurmi-Koeri support for JDU is also showing signs of drift. Mahadalits have understood their electoral worth and are not blind voters this time around. Congress’ organizational weakness means that the upper caste voters would tend to align with the BJP, who have unwavering support of the traders, the Baniyas. 

It means that almost 17% of Muslims could be vital and decisive for Bihar after at least two assembly polls. This is why Modi-bashing is attaining high pitch in Bihar and TV studios. And, on the counter-hand, we saw the prime minister reading a verse from Quran to underline the significance of knowledge.

There are several other factors in Bihar this time around. The Manjhis and the Pappus are potential spoilsports. Jitan Ram Manjhi is certainly bound to pull a sizeable portion of Mahadalits from the JDU’s shelter to saffron camp by playing victim card. Pappu Yadav with his new party can play a bigger role in Kosi belt and among Yadavas. Manjhi may be a factor in central-south Bihar in about 20 assembly segments while Pappu Yadav may affect results in about 70 assembly seats of Kosi-Mithilanchal belt.

So, Bihar is going to be an interesting battle of ballots once again. BJP could do well if it can slay its own demon of one-up-man-ship in the party and that too in time. Though, signs are not good with SuMo rejecting party’s state in-charge Ananth Kumar’s proposition that NaMo would be the face for assembly polls. JDU-RJD combo is banking heavily on this very divisive factor associated with Narendra Modi, to stage an electoral coup in a state where they have been ruling for more than two decades and a half.

Narendra Modi: Advani, BJP, RSS, ideology or power play?

There are too many of readable, non-readable, absurd, brilliant and stupid write ups on Narendra Modi being formally anointed the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP, understandably well supported and approved by its remaining two alliance partners. I am only putting an extra piece on the garbage vomited by the intellectuals, though I am not one of them.

The BJP has done what anyways seemed inevitable for the survival of the party, keeping whatever stature it has intact. Narendra Modi has long outgrown the veterans and equally eager so-called national leaders within the BJP. People don't connect with LK Advani anymore. Sachin Tendulkar may still have some fan following but Advani has lost most, if not all, of them to his own protege from his home state. But, much like the great from the game of cricket, the political stalwart of the BJP fails to realize, recognize and admit that he is much much past his prime. At 86, Advani can not afford to harbour a dream to lead an India, whose average age may be some 50 years less.

Is Advani so naive to understand this simple thing? Is ambition of the man be so overwhelming that he can risk wiping out all the good that he may have done in his long career and life? Logic fails to answer the question. May be, 'ambitious' people think, feel and do differently. But, let's suppose for a moment, that Advani realizes this. Then, why is he doing what he has been doing? Why is this posturing, if it is bound to be doomed? Is there really any ideological battle going on? Is the old man trying to correct the wrongs that he committed in his prime for his prime ambition? Is the old man trying to save India's pluralistic identity, which he once attempted to destroy? Or, as many have put it, is he simply misjudging everything? The answers to these question will paint a clear picture. But, there are no easy answers.

Let's try to find a couple of those difficult answers on our own. There has been a non-separable relationship between the RSS and the BJP. They are two, but they are one. However, the two patriarchs of the BJP, AB Vajpayee and LK Advani tried to restrict the influence of the RSS in the business of governance when the two were at the helm of affairs for not less than six years. Vajpayee-Advani duo challenged the authority of the RSS in governance. 

When the BJP-led NDA came to power, the RSS thought to have a free sway but the two formidable leaders of the BJP kept them at an arm's distance on more than one occasion. This was incredible those days considering the historical relation of two organizations. Advani once proclaimed that governance does not fall in the realm of ideology, it is carried out on the basis of ground realities (you may read, coalition politics). The point is the father organization, the RSS was kept at a distance from the corridors of power while its children were managers of power.

After Vajpayee's health took him practically out of question, Advani has been waging a lone battle against the attempted coup by the RSS in the BJP. But, the emergence of Modi as a development man, who connects well with the aspirations of the youth despite the taint of communal riots gave the RSS a window to stage a forceful comeback in the courtyard of BJP.

But, this could not have been possible without the active support and calculated moves by Modi, who also saw a window of opportunity for himself with Vajpayee out of question, Advani being on the wrong side of 80s, and none of the next generation leaders at the national level having popular support. So, Modi quickly mended his ways to patch up with the RSS lest Shivraj Singh Chauhan made claim to the national politics. Brand Modi picked up at right time. And, the RSS got a foothold in the door that was threatening to close on its face- of course, not immediately.

If this is true, as I sense it to be, the BJP along with Advani has lost its war against the RSS. The independence of the BJP may have been compromised with in the elevation of Modi.

The RSS could serve well as a pressure group to any government, but it if the BJP, which senses groundswell in its favour across the Hindi heartland, gives the RSS a handle, it is not good for pluralistic model of governance in India. The result may be more damaging as it may give fodder to the hungry jehadis. Modi, obviously, has a tough task at hand even if we presume that he will take the BJP back to power in the two most coveted blocks in the country.