Narendra Modi's Independence Day 2017 speech: PM is either ignorant or incorrigibly optimistic

Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Red Fort during his Independence Day speech today. (Screengrab: DD Live Stream)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered his fourth speech from the Red Fort on the Independence Day 2017 today. Historically, the Independence Day speeches have been considered as occasions to showcase the policies of the government.

PM Narendra Modi took the occasion this year to enumerate the achievements of his government. He talked about reforms including demonetisation and GST. But, it looked a bit immature to take credit for launching Mars Mission in nine months. The programme had taken shape during the previous government led by Manmohan Singh.

Narendra Modi also talked about GST but it was also a work in continuation. Demonetisation and surgical strikes were his own completely. Though, many may point that surgical strikes had been conducted in the past as well. But, then no one ever offered any proof before. Narendra Modi government made a bold move not to just own a surgical strike but to shout it aloud so that the message is heard clear and straight both within and without.

Former Prime Ministers HD Deve Gowda and Manmohan Singh at Independence Day celebrations at the Red Fort in New Delhi. (Screengrab: DD Live Streaming)
Narendra Modi talked about ushering a new India by 2022. His new India to have jobs, double income than the present for farmers - which would translate into at least twice as much earning for others as well given the nature and system of our economy, total sanitation, no corruption, no hatred, no filthy competition and almost everything that would make India an ideal nation and society.

Mahatma Buddha and Lord Rama also conceptualised such a society and nation respectively. No one is sure about Lord Rama's period but Mahatma Buddha tried this some 2,500 years ago in Bihar, where only recently a chief minister resigned from the post of chief minister to become the chief minister joining hands with a former chief minister with whom he fought an almost meaningless ego battle.

Even Mahatma Gandhi envisioned an India of his dream. He saw his dream shattering but still had hopes that it would not resurrect once the 'mad nations' woke from their slumber and stopped human slaughter. The Mahatma could not live long enough to endure the pain of his dream being crushed, trampled and consigned to garbage mounds by his own proteges.

Union Minister Smriti Irani at the Independence Day celebration at the Red Fort in New Delhhi. (Screengrab: DD Live Streaming)
For the New India of PM Narendra Modi's vision, his government needs to create 1.3 crore full time employment every year, healthcare facilities need to be modernised and made available 24x7 all the 365 days of the year, burden of judiciary should reduce so that the cases could be disposed in six months after filing, police should be able to complete investigation of a case in two-three months, more than 35 crore people need to get literate and educated, government schools should deliver high quality education across language barrier in every village and ward, Parliament should be debating in five years if the country needed a law dealing with rape as it would vanish from the face of India, women should face no discrimination in homes, at work and public places.

In 1947, a section of people thought with freedom their homes will become happy, corruption would end, police would behave, nepotism would end and suraj would come. BR Ambedkar thought after 15 years of quota, the Dalits would be able to cast away the burden of centuries. In 1974-75, a group of enthusiasts sought if the first freedom failed them another would not as it would be total revolution. In 2011, a handful Indians and TV channel studios made us believe that corruption would be the last things India and Indians want. Next year, similar bunch of street troopers tried to convince India that Indians won't stare at, stalk, harass, molest, sodomise, rape or brutalise a soul in future. So on and so forth. And, here 125 crore people stand waiting for another suraj, the New India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi deserves a salute for believing that India and Indians would bring in an India of his vision in next five years. Either he does not know his 125 crore people or his optimism has turned into an obsession without any cure.

PS: Do I need to underscore here that this blog is only a reflection of one of my brainwave?



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As President, Ram Nath Kovind remains the same commoner even during oath taking: Curious things about swearing in ceremony

Ram Nath Kovind is the President of India. Like any other person who has entered the Rashtrapati Bhavan, Ram Nath Kovind too has quite a few firsts to his credit.

Ram Nath Kovind is the first RSS member to become the President of India.
Ram Nath Kovind is the first person from Uttar Pradesh to become the President of India.
Interestingly, Ram Nath Kovind has a couple of seconds also.
Ram Nath Kovind is the second Bihar Governor to become the President of India.
Ram Nath Kovind is the second Dalit person to become the President of India.

During the swearing in ceremony, Ram Nath Kovind looked visibly nervous. Ram Nath Kovind might have been overwhelmed by occasion.

The long journey from a Kanpur village mud house with thatched roof to the palatial and colossal building of the Rashtrapati Bhavan might have been running in his mind as a flashback film.

After having been administered the oath of secrecy by Chief Justice of India Justice JS Khehar, Ram Nath Kovind's predecessor Pranab Mukherjee shook hands with the new incumbent and directed him to his new seat.

At this point of time while Pranab Mukherjee looked emotional, Ram Nath Kovind appeared nervous. Ram Nath Kovind sat in the chair without signing on the oath papers. President's secretary had to tell him that he needed to sign in the register.

Ram Nath Kovind's hand was shaking profusely while signing on the register as mark of acknowledgement that he now held the highest office of the land. He completed the formalities for the top position in the country.

But, nervousness of the common man that he had been all through 71 years of his life was yet to subside. Ram Nath Kovind, after putting back the cap of the pen at its place, could not place his black pen with golden rings at its usual place at the top of his breast pocket.

Like a commoner, overwhelmed by the occasion, Ram Nath Kovind put his pen in his lower pocket on the right side of his executive coat. Just like any other commoner from Kanpur.

In his first speech as President, Ram Nath Kovind, too, remained the same old man. Among the nation builders, Kovind mentioned farm toilers. In the list, he burdened the tribals and ordinary citizens with the responsibility of saving humanity and life.

Kovind said, "Tribal and ordinary citizen striving to preserve our ecology, our forests and our wildlife is a nation builder." This is exactly what common man has been made to believe and think.

Ram Nath Kovind has come from the same stock of common man, who strives for life every day and keep one's life on track despite thousands of hiccups and hundreds of mini-rebellions of daily life-process.

As he represents and claims to be representing the common man in the most magnificent house for a head of state in the world, another common man in Kanpur or some other city, town and village would be hoping that Ram Nath Kovind will come of age as President of India and so shall the every other commoner in the country.

A Dalit must be hoping that when she walks out of her home next, she would be seen and treated as of the President's clan (and not vice versa).

A villager would be expecting that when Finance Minister of President Ram Nath Kovind frames his budge next time, a future President of India need not spend childhood in her thatched roof.

A farmer may be expecting that the next time a banker, a moneylender, a journalist, a district magistrate or a minister spots her tilling her farm must see her as a nation builder and bows.

A Muslim would like to believe that when Kovind referred to 125 crore Indians, she was kept in mind. And, the vice versa.

The Prime Minister, too, would be hoping that his party is no longer branded as anti-Dalit or Brahmin-dominated party.

And, Ram Nath Kovind may be hoping that he would be allowed to be a copy-book President and go by the rule book as he did as the Governor of Bihar.
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Pakistan Army: News Notes 7.12.16; Indian Express

Pakistan Army chief takes charge. (photo credit: @AsimBajwaISPR)

General Qamar Javed Bajwa superseded four Lt Gens. He is the third successive Punjabi army chief. He is from Jat community from Ghakhar Mandi in Pakistani Punjab.

Punjabis constitute 56 per cent population of Pakistan.

In 1939, Punjabi Muslims formed 29 per cent of British Indian soldiers. They were preferred after 1857 revolt as they were considered more loyal than the recruits from traditional grounds in UP and Bihar.

Punjabis dominate Pakistani army. Pathans are the second most dominant ethnic group. Urdu speaking mohajirs have had larger share in Pakistani Army than their share in population.

First Punjabi army chief of Pakistan was General Tikka Khan, who assumed office in 1972- 25 years after its creation.

Seven Punjabis have occupied the office of Pakistan Army chief including Bajwa. Bajwa is the third successive army chief since 2007. Till then four out of 13 army chiefs were Punjabis.

Before Bajwa, 28 of 69 years of its existence have seen a Punjabi army chief.
There have been 16 army chiefs in Pakistan. Of the four military dictators, one was Punjabi- General Zia-ul-Haq.

General Zia ul Haq we born in Jalandhar and studied at St Stephen's College, Delhi. He ruled for 11 years.

General Parvez Musharraf was a Urdu speaking mohajir, who was born in Delhi. He ruled for nine years.

Two other military dictators of Pakistan were Pathans, who constitute 16% of Pakistani population.

There have been four Pathan army chiefs heading the army for 16 years. Field Marshall Ayub Khan and Punjab born General Yahya Khan were Pathans. The two ruled Pakistan for 14 years.

Gen Bajwa takes over from Gen Sharif. Photo credit: @AsimBajwaISPR)

Out of proportion share of Pathans has offset separatism in NWFP or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where sense of alienation was very strong and it predated the 1971 separation of East Bengal.

About three crore Pathans live in the area separated by the Durand Line from the Afhan Pathans, who including the Taliban don’t recognise it as a boundary line.

In total about four crore Pathans line on the two sides of Durand Line.

Pathans General Ayub Khan's appointment as army chief in 1951 coincided with the rise of separatism in NWFP. Seven years later, Ayub Khan led the first military coup. Ayub Khan remained Pakistan's ruler for next 11 years till 1969, when Indira Gandhi was gaining ground in democratic India.

During Ayub Khan's regime, Pathans got closer to Pakistani ruling machinery and held greater stake in the army instilling among them the sense of belongingness towards their country.

But, mohajirs' dominance in bureaucracy prompted imposition of Urdu as the sole unifying language that complicated the matters in East Bengal- ultimately destroying the two-nation theory.

Urdu speaking migrants comprise only six per cent of Pakistan’s population.
 Two Urdu speaking generals became Pakistan Army chiefs- Azamgarh-born General Mirza Aslam Beg and Parvez Musharraf. As army chiefs, they jointly commanded for 12 years.

The two mohajir generals aggravated Kashmir problem. Beg engineered Kashmir insurgency in late 1980s- 1989 is taken as a cut off date in general sense.

Musharraf planned 1999-Kargil war- a limited war with the aim to draw international attention and thereby internationalise Kashmir taking it beyond the Indian thesis of bilateralism.

No Sindhi or Baloch has headed Pakistan Army. General Muhammad Musa came from Baluchistan but he was not a Baloch but belonged to small Hazara community. He led the army for eight years.

Only 15 per cent soldiers of Pakistan Army belong to Sindh and Baluchistan. Baloch comprise three per cent of Pakistan's army.

Sindhis are the second most populous ethnic group in Pakistan. They are 17 per cent of total population.

Sindhis and Balochs are considered as non-martial ethnic groups. Of late, Pakistan Army has lowered the fitness and educational criteria to admit more Sindhis and Balochs.

PoK recruits comprise 6 per cent of Pakistan Army.

65 per cent soldiers are from Punjab and 15 per cent from NWFP and FATA (Pathans areas)
Pothwar region of Punjab proportionately dominates Pakistan Army in terms of soldiers. Pothwar's Jat, Rajputs, Awans, Gakkars and Gurjars are the main recruits in the Pakistan Army.

Three Pakistan Army chiefs have been Punjabi Rajputs- Tikka Khan, Asif Nawaz and Raheel Sharif.

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Demonetisation rumours that you may have taken as truth


Photo credit: @saur008

After five days of demonetisation decision, queues were not to be seen outside banks and ATMs for a day on Monday in some parts of the country.

Not because the cash crisis is over, which will anyhow persist till the end of the year- even Prime Minister Narendra Modi admitted this.

The queues vanished because banks finally have a day off in certain states, which is celebrating Guru Purnima or Kartik Purnima.

In the meanwhile, rumour mill is running overtime. Cash crisis is genuine and grave, but there are rumours that you may have believed as truth.

Here are some of them:



1.      Delhi Police received 4,500 calls informing violence outside banks and ATMs. This is not true.Delhi Police issued a clarification about the calls 

2.        Some reports also suggested that stampede took place outside banks and ATMs in Delhi, which turned out to be false.

 3.    DCP’s authorisation is required for exchanging or withdrawing money from RBI counters in Delhi. People were seen rushing to DCP South Delhi. Police were forces to issue another clarification denying such reports.
4.    Transporters to go on strike. The word is there in retail markets that in the aftermath of the demonetisation move, the transporters are going on a nation-wide strike, which will lead to acute shortage of essential goods. (One such pic is attached obtained from Google) This has been denied by the transporters association and the road transport and highways ministry.
5.    Salt scarcity in the country. All over the market place, this sentiment is very strong that the country doesn’t have enough stock of salt. The belief is that the demonetisation would lead to crashing down of salt production in coming days. The food and supplies ministry has debunked these reports but the quintessential kitchen item was sold at over Rs 200 a kg not very far from the national capital.
6.    Shopping mall looted in Delhi. A video went viral showing some people climbing the stacks in an upscale grocery shop and grabbing bags of grains, sugar etc. The rumour has it that people were desperate as they were running short on cash and hence broke into the shopping mall. Delhi Police issued a clarification saying that the disorder in the self-catering mall located in Seelampur area was due to some miscreants.
7.    
Photo credit: @NNaseemahmad071
Congress spokesperson Sanjay Jha retweeted this photograph showing humongous queues. This tweet attributed the queue to cash crisis.This photograph has subsequently been many times aggravating the panic, the public is already in. In reality, this photograph was taken in 2013 during Kenyan presidential elections.
8.    (Three deaths (reported numbers have gone up now were reported due to rush for cash after demonetisation. In two of the cases, family members later clarified that the deaths were not linked to cash crisis. In Mulund, Mumbai the 73-year-old suffered from health complications, his family members were reported as saying. In another case, a woman jumped to death and it was attributed to cash crisis. But, the family members did not later link it to rush for cash. )


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Do you know about demonetisation gains of Modi government

Rush for Cash: Waiting in line for hours at banks (Photo credit: @globalissuesweb)
After a day's break queues were back outside banks Tuesday morning. SBI chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya claimed that the queues were getting shorter. However, these are still huge.

But, while the nation stands in queue to get hold of valid currency notes, did you wonder what benefit the government would have from demonetisation move? No?

The next few minutes will help you grasp the benefits for the government and also the immediate negative impact of what is being hailed as a historic and bold decision of the Nrlarendra Modi government.

We begin with the immediate and perhaps negative implications of demonetisation move, which the Congress and former union finance minister P Chidambaram call as mere note change policy implemented poorly.
DEMONETISATION PROBLEMS

Demonetisation has come as a nightmare for the cash logistics industry of the country. To pull back invalid currency notes from over the vast expanse of the country; to fill over 2 lakh ATMs along the length and width of India and to recalibrate and fill all the ATMs have come as a crippling challenge to the relatively new sector.

Long queues outside banks and frustration of people with the empty ATMs are the obvious effects of the entire process. Banks are not functioning the way they should despite the exemplary dedication and resolve shown by the bank staff.

The demonetisation is likely to slowdown consumer spending impeding growth of the FMCG sector due to limited cash availability.

Real estate, jewellery, electronics and other cash dominated and luxury items related sectors would also slow down.

The next quarter GDP figures may also report a slowdown with rural India showing major decline as villages and small urban pockets are hugely cash dependent. Low consumption would entail low growth figures for industries and development statistics of the government.
But, after initial hiccups, the results are likely to outweigh the inconvenience caused to people. It is expected that over the period of acceptance of invalidated currency notes in banks, some Rs 4-5 lakh crores will be deposited - money that was not in the banking system.

DEMONETISATION GAINS

A substantial portion of the deposits will be withdrawn as people are frantically depositing their money in banks but they will need money in immediate future. Still, some Rs 3 lakh are expected to remain with banks.

Now consider economics. Every currency note issued by the RBI is a liability on the government. So, those who, likely to be unaccounted money holders, don’t deposit their stacked cash will help government shed off fiscal liabilities.

Those who declare their unaccounted cash thinking whatever they get after paying taxes and penalty is better than burning the stock of old currency. Declaration of black money will make government richer by 60-70% in each case.

Still some people will try to find ways- if reports are to be believed they already are in the business- to short circuit demonetisation and launder their money. But, even this goes in government’s favour as hidden money will come into circulation.

So, where all this leads to? Some enthusiastic calculators have estimated that approximately 50 per cent of the 86 per cent of money in circulation as represented in Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denominations before being demonetised, was illegal or unaccounted or in simpler terms, black money, for which tax was not paid.

This means around Rs 7 lakh crores will either be extinguished as liability or 60-70% of it will come 
to the government coffers by means of tax incidence or penalty for not paying tax in the year of earning. It will enrich the RBI-government combine by approximately Rs 5 lakh crores over the years - the income tax department is bound to take years for calculating the tax liability of each individual depositor after assessing their case. This amount looks an exaggerated one but even a half of it will be enough for the government to wipe out half of the fiscal deficit.

As per the 2016-17 budget document, the fiscal deficit target is to keep it below Rs.5.33 lakh crore or 3.5% of the GDP. Some experts haveestimated that the demonetisation decision will bring something to tune of Rs 3-4 lakh crores.

If such a huge fiscal deficit is bridged this year, it will provide windfall gains for the government in subsequent years.

With inflated chests, the banks will be in a position to reduce interests on both the deposits and loans. This would entail cheaper EMI on various loans. It would may push investment, which, in turn, lead to employment generation.

However, if backed with adequate tightening of loopholes in laws dealing with black money generation, the demonetisation move is likely to pay better dividends in post-2019 years.
Further, with limited cash in circulation, the inflation figures will favour the government.

And, finally, the demonetisation move is likely to give fa fillip to the banking system. An estimated Rs7-8 lakh crore new money will enter into banking, which may multiply by 3+4 times on account of re-circulation. But that may take, again, years.

But in any case, the Modi government can easily go to 2019-elections with good growth figures on its CV.

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Modi deserting Raghuram Rajan bitter but better

The BBC interview of the outgoing RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and his comments about the prime minister betrays the bitter relation between the two top functionaries of governance. Rajan has never shied away from expressing his displeasure at the government’s policies. He has been a very political RBI governor without having affiliation to any political outfit.

In his latest interview with the BBC, Rajan refused to answer a rapid fire question saying “Whatever answer I give will be problematic, so I will just pass.” This shows his utter dislike for the incumbent government. With this statement Rajan may go out at a bold and upfront RBI governor but history may consider him a misfit RBI governor.



If one goes by the role and functions of the RBI as envisaged in its establishment in 1935 and nationalization in 1949, she would not imagine a political RBI. And, this is where Rajan looks a misfit for the role. He remains the academician that he has been for long.

The Banking Regulation Act 1949 and the RBI Act 1953 has given the RBI the power to regulate the banking system. The website of the RBI lays down the following functions of the central bank in India:

Monetary Authority:
• Formulation, implementation and monitoring of the monetary policy.
• Objective: maintaining price stability and ensuring adequate flow of credit to productive sectors.

Regulator and supervisor of the financial system:
• Prescribing broad parameters of banking operations 
• Objective: maintain public confidence in the system, protect depositors' interest and provide cost-effective banking services to the public.

Manager of Foreign Exchange:
• Managing foreign exchange as mandated under the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999.
• Objective: to facilitate external trade and payment and promote orderly development and maintenance of foreign exchange market in India.

Issuer of currency:
• The RBI issues and exchanges or destroys currency and coins not fit for circulation.
• Objective: to give the public adequate quantity of supplies of currency notes and coins and in good quality.

Developmental role:
• Performs a wide range of promotional functions to support national objectives.

Related Functions:
• Banker to the Government: performs merchant banking function for the central and the state governments; also acts as their banker.
• Banker to banks: maintains banking accounts of all scheduled banks.

Clearly, the RBI’s defined role is to be the support system of the government of the day. But, with all academic brilliance, Rajan has failed to implement the laid out mandate. Perhaps, his academic brilliance, his astute understanding of the economy forced him to run a somewhat parallel fiscal policy for the country. (Recall his inflation loaded views on interest rates- not talking of merit, just the mandated role and what Rajan actually did). 

Rajan could not become the next Manmohan Singh, who during his governorship, with all understanding of the then changing world, crumbling cold age economy proved an able support system of the Indira Gandhi government. And, ironically it was Manmohan Singh who honoured a commitment by appointing Rajan the RBI governor. But, it seems Rajan did not learn the art of playing his role according the chair from one of the finest prime ministers of India, that Manmohan Singh was.

It looks bitter that Rajan was not given another term by the Modi government. But, it may actually turn out to be better. Any government under parliamentary form like ours deserves a supporting central bank. An adverse central bank would deviate, deflect and distort government’s policies. It has been happening in India leading a state of policy confusion. India can hardly afford to bear policy confusion as a follow up of policy paralysis.

PS: The author is not suggesting that BJP's insinuating machine (SS) was right in launching a tirade against Rajan.
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GPS technology to predict footballers' injuries

New Delhi, August 11: Remember Sachin Tendulkar’s tennis elbow, Messi’s back injury, Roger Federer’s knee injury? Forget it. Injuries could be a thing of past in competitive sports. GSP technology can actually be used to predict football injuries! True, according to a new research, footballers’ injuries may be predicted by looking at players’ workloads during training and competition. 

The University of Birmingham and Southampton Football Club joined hands to analyze the performance of players and find links between training and injury. The findings have been published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine and are being acclaimed.

Researchers have discovered that the greatest injury risks occurred when players accumulated a very high number of short bursts of speed during training over a three-week period.

The findings now provide a set of initial guidelines for helping to reduce the occurrence of injuries in elite youth football. They show that GPS technology and accelerometers can be used to predict the risk of both contact and non-contact injuries.

The Birmingham University study is the first such research on injury risk using GPS technology, which is generally used in football to track players’ speed and acceleration - both in training and competition.

“Our research has huge practical and scientific application. It expands a recent body of literature in rugby league and cricket, which has proposed that the prescription of workloads may be more indicative of injury than the load itself,” said lead researcher Laura Bowen.

According to the study, players generally don’t keep track of their training or actual workload on field. They don’t follow a particular pattern of training or executing the plan on the field. The GPS can keep track of all that and help analyze the weaknesses of body. A careful and structured training and sporting regime could be hence developed reducing the injury worry to the lowest.

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