UPA's fact file: Bharat Smiling?

Politics is much like our lives. We try to look positive and vibrant whenever we decide to fight a gloom and strive to come out of it. The ultimate hope resides in prayers to god. In the case of politics, god is people, the voters, who, all the politicians, like mortal human beings, think can be fooled. The Bharat Smiling campaign of the UPA II, presumably the last of the UPAs makes one think on these lines. Millions of followers of Indian politics would immediately draw a comparison between the India Shining of  NDA regime and this one. However, the present ruling dispensation has vehemently denied that the latter is a caricature of the former.

The campaign in-charge and Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tewari claims that the India Shining campaign was a smug while Bharat Smiling is a humble one. The tag line for Bharat Smiling reads, "Many Miles We Have Come, But Many More We Still Have To Go'. An informed student of Indian politics would wish Tewari knew former prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru's liking for Robert Frost's composition, "Woods are lovely, dark and deep/ But, I have miles to go/ Before I sleep/ Before I sleep". Anyways, while UPA II claims Bharat to be smiling let's focus on some of the facts emerging from the wailing India.

India has many shades of reality. Politically and journalistically corruption seems to be the only and the biggest problem ailing the country. But if we bend our knees a bit and get a reasonably realistic view of ground situation, we would find more pressing problems like lack of viable employment, lack of quality education at affordable cost, lack of quality food to all and absence of adequate health machinery. Combine this with the exponential growth (in numbers) of aspiring youth and one will see a scary picture hanging across the length and breadth of the country.  

 

Economics and Employment

 

First, let's look at the economic reality of the country and see whether Bharat is really smiling.

Broadly speaking India achieved a growth rate of 4.96 percent in 2012-13 for its 1.23 billion people, who form the largest congregation of the poorest sea of humanity on the planet. Agriculture and allied sectors are contributing the least to the GDP signaling that largest chunk of population is either economically redundant or extremely inefficient. Manufacturing sector has not been giving enough hope for the redundant populace, who are anyways not skilled and trained for industries. Manufacturing sector though contributes over a quarter to the GDP, but finds itself in a whirlpool of government's policy paralysis. Services contribute nearly 60 percent to India's GDP, a sign of paradigm shift in development toeing the line of the developed economies. But, here it means that only a fraction of India has grown so much that it eclipses the rest. (Many believe that India is progressing and Bharat is trailing.)

Now, let's see the UPA's response and also contribution to this economic state. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme was launched between 2006, becoming fully operational in 2010. The MNREGS guarantees one hundred days of work to one person per family in a rural area. The official figures say that nearly twenty lakh rupees have been spent on the scheme till now. This might have brought UPA more votes in last parliamentary elections but it has not served country well. 

The Comptroller and Auditor General finds the scheme flawed in implementation (by states, though) upto 96% meaning that practically all the rupees spent on the scheme flowed into drains. Further, it has failed in creating the number of jobs it was expected to during its operation. Reports suggest that there has been a 26% decline in man-days of work hitting the dalits and the tribals the worst. Their employment status has declined by 47% and 41% respectively over the period of MNREGS operation. (The government's reply to Parliament) The overall rate of unemployment in India was 9.3% in 2012 and is expected to be 9.4% in 2013.
 

Education and Empowerment

 
The worrying employment scenario could be bettered with quality education and skill training. The UPA introduced the Right to Education making education compulsory for children of 6-14 years. But, recent reports from the ministry of human resource development clearly tell that the standard of education has gone down in the past decade and that the recent policies are responsible for this decline. Moreover, school drop out rates are also alarming for a country which fosters the largest mass of illiterate people. The drop out rates for class five is 30%, which increases to 85% in class eight. If the monumental right to education act has achieved merely this at the cost of more than two lakh crores of rupees. The country needs to put its working heads together. Higher eduction is no better. Many ministers including the present HRD minister at the centre have already cast aspersions on the ability of premier technical institutions in producing creative professionals.
 

Food (In)security

 

India is a nation of surplus production and hungry population. Hunger and Malnutrition report (HUNGaMA) released by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a couple of years ago highlighted the health of this ever growing nation. More 42% children were malnourished in 2011. The situation has not improved much since then. India can boast of a total food-grain production of 260 million tonnes and also of the theoretical availability of food-grain per capita at 444 grams (in 20112), but the ground reality is betrayed by various media reports of deaths caused by hunger every now and then. And, this could happen even in the busy city of Varanasi.

Meanwhile, politics is in full swing over the food security bill, which could well prove to be another MNREGS. The UPA government plans to fill the stomachs of 67 percent of Indian populace with the proposed food security scheme through its defunct public distribution system. The food for all scheme hopes to cover two-third of the entire population and is expected to tax the rest 1.25 lakh crore of rupees every year. This huge amount of tax payers money is at the risk of going down the PDS drains given that the system has inefficiency of 44 percent. One can imagine where the proposed scheme may be heading to. 

Providing wheat @Rs 2/kg, rice @Rs 3/kg and millets @Re 1/kg may sound very good for people only at face value, but it is, actually, bad management of a country which has one-fourth of the hungry people on the globe with number exceeding 230 millions. While the food production in India is breaking all records, the warehouses and store-houses fail to accommodate all the grains. Every year, lakhs of tonnes of foodgrains rot at several places in the country prompting the Supreme Court to direct the government in 2011 to distribute the grains among the poor.

 

Health

 

India has the dubious distinction of being the world leader in maternal and child mortality despite a booming health and hospital industry, and resultant highly acclaimed and appreciated medical tourism. The official records show that nearly half of India is undernourished. According to the World Health Organization's finding India annually records the maximum number of deaths of pre-term babies, malnourished and stunted children, anaemic women, children with birth defects, TB infections and MDR-TB cases, rabies deaths, new leprosy cases and oral cancer.

On the other hand, the country is heading to become the diabetes and dementia capital of the world in near future. The basic cause for all this is attributed to very low public spending on health. This explains why private hospitals have mushroomed all over the country, but quality treatment is still out of the reach of general masses. The government's expenditure on health is 3.9% of the GDP, which is lesser than that in even Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Right to information

 

Amid the gloomy picture, the UPA government can really boast of having given the right to information to people by passing an act in 2006. It is, however, altogether a different story that the same instrument has proved to be Frankenstein's monster for the UPA. The Act has exposed the not only the UPA government but many state governments as well. The UPA bosses understand the predicament of this Act much better now. This explains why most of the ministries do not provide complete information to the office of the central information commissioner.

According to one estimate, the rate of default at the ministerial level in the UPA government as to replying to RTI queries is over 30%. So, with an apparent intention of slaying its own angel, RTI, the UPA is hoping that the electors in India will look at Bharat smiling and refuse to see through the game.

Last but not the least, consider this. 35.5% India still lives without electricity; the Transparency International ranks India at 94th among 174 nations on corruption perception index; large portions of farmland in the country awaits its share of green revolution; the area of farmers' suicide continues to widen and comity of nations led by China, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh continues to ignore India's interests, notwithstanding, the UPA managers expects (may be like an ostrich) Bharat to be Smiling!

WHITHER RESERVATION POLICY

I wrote this piece long back in April 2006. Surprisingly, my opinion on government's reservation policy has not changed much. I am reproducing the article here. It is a immature in construction, but I feel it is good enough for my blog.

Thanks to the new amendment in the article 15 of the Constitution the reservation policy is back in debate. The Constitution of India provides for the laws being made for the uplift and sound development of the weaker sections of society. The founding fathers of the Constitution carved out such provisions to correct the historical wrong/injustice done to a segment of our society, generally clubbed as Dalits, in modern day politics. The governments in the Independent India have on record tried to achieve what the Constitution makers thought would help developing a balanced and equality based society of India. Needless to say that something has definitely gone wrong in the process else India would have succeeded in developing a dream society of its own.

It would be insane to think that the Constitution makers were wrong in intent or logic. They adequately identified a problem of grave concern and provided for a constitutional solution hoping that fifteen years would be ample time to do away with the economic-social injustice, and that the government would do enough to realize this constitutional ideal. But, the spirit of framing a constitution and that of running a government are two different things. One treads in the realms of idealism whereas the other in the sphere of pragmatism. Running a government is driven for sure by ambition (previously called lust), for power, status, popularity et al.

The result is, another constitutional amendment providing for the admission into IIMs and IITs. This clearly goes against the spirit of the Constitution, as getting admission into IIMs and IITs has nothing to do with the basic needs of life and livelihood what was the primary concern of the Constitution makers. Moreover, one who has to fight for his daily meals does not and can not think of getting into these premier institutions. Obviously this move of the UPA government has something else in its intent, may be due to upcoming elections in the states or god knows what

So to say that government in India has failed the idea of governance as envisaged in the Constitution would not amount to committing a crime. For, fifty-six years (in 2006) are not spent in a day. Shortage of time has never been a problem for India's political community but the will.

The problem warrants a wider debate and deeper analysis. In the first place the meaning of reservation/quota needs to be understood. Literally it implies giving opportunities to a defined class of citizens or public. But, practically it means preferring less competent people to more competent ones for a particular purpose. Such policy does not augur well for a developing country in modern age especially if it is India.

The argument that by giving reservation to the underprivileged segment of society, it can be brought at par with rest of the society does not hold much water. The sense that we get from the working at medical and engineering colleges or even the government departments does not toe the political line of pro-quota policy. It is commonly said that the people getting jobs through reservation do not perform as well as others. That they do not meet the minimum qualifying standards for the jobs at hand and the reason for this quality gap does not lie in their birth but in the process of their qualitative strengthening, which the quota policy doesn't focus on.

The reservation policy has been here for quite long now and it has not yielded what was expected of it. The main problem is that it is caste based. The benefits of the quota have gone overwhelmingly to the better-off people among the reservation category castes. So, the policy has always missed the real target and it's been known to all (the stakeholders). Nevertheless the rules and laws have kept coming up on the same line and the present one is just an addition to the list.

The son of a marginal farmer or a farm-labourer in a remote village without doubt is not going to draw any benefit from quota in IIMs and IITs as he/she would not be able to fill-in the application form and meet the traveling cost for appearing even in the written examination and group- discussion thereof. So, who is the real target of such an amendment is hard to fantasize even.

This move is certainly going to aggravate the problem of unemployment among the educated youth. The unemployed educated people are more susceptible to anti-social activities. All the government and other reports suggest that the unemployed muslim youth fall easy prey to the propaganda of jehad. In fact, in Jammu and Kashmir it is a popular perception that getting into the rank and file of terrorism draws more money than getting into the all-elusive jobs. The government definitely should have looked at this angle too.
The call of the hour therefore is not to implement the amendment in haste. The issue should be looked in wider perspectives. The problems being faced by the weaker sections must be looked at with great care and in such a manner that it does not give rise to another problem in our society

The weaker sections of our society first need to be clearly defined and identified if the government's intent is to improve their lot and not to gain some hidden insane benefits only. Caste can no longer be taken as a basis for any such demarcation. No caste is weak or strong today, it's the position of an individual that is weaker or stronger. The lopsided reservation policy has only corroborated this. The people from the weaker sections must be at first ensured jobs at their own places. Their children must be ensured a healthy life and a healthy school education. Other embedded aspects are the population size and the growth rate of population among the weaker sections. The people sensitized to understand the relation between the size of population and the rate of population growth on one hand and jobs, poverty, health and effectiveness of governmental measures on the other. Let's hope the government would show enough courage and sense to provide the " governance with real human face".

DMK Forces To Ponder Over The Afzal Question

The mask finally came out today. It became clear to everyone within India and outside that this Indian government handles its diplomatic relations on the basis of internal politics and aspirations. The Dravida Munetra Kazhagam has withdrawn support to the UPA government led by Manmohan Singh over the issue of alleged killing of LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil) by the Sri Lankan establishment. The open secret lies unravelled now.

It would be interesting to listen to those voices, which questioned the validity of Pakistan's National Assembly in passing a resolution condemning hanging of Afzal Guru. Our Parliament wasted no time in giving a befitting reply by passing another resolution condemning the Afzal resolution of Pakistan's National Assembly. And, everyone including this writer has reliably learnt that the DMK under M Karunanidhi voted favouring the resolution passed by Parliament. Now, where is the so-called ethical or moral difference between the equations.

We generally elect our leaders on the basis of our ability to believe or disbelieve in them, and we judge our leaders on the basis of their past (the most recent) performance. Sometimes, their intent also plays a significant role in the election process. Now, let's think separately the intent and performance of our political class in the aforesaid two cases, and then have a look at the real diplomatic and political spectre.

The Afzal Resolution
 
National Assembly of Pakistan passed that resolution because of two broad reasons: one, Afzal's connection to Kashmir (and attack on Indian Parliament) and two, religious appeal, which played the key role in partition and subsequent political confusion over the status, standing and stature of Jammu and Kashmir.

First of all, Pakistan feels that Kashmir is an Islamic problem and that's why an unfinished agenda of the partition and hence, it has its stake in deciding the fate and future of the state. It has fought not less than three wars on this issue, and has been supporting, helping, channelizing, designing and propagating terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and rest of India.

So, when someone from the same school of thought carries out or allegedly helps carrying out an act of terror, Pakistan is bound to have some hand in the act and stake in the future of the same person. It may present a different face to the world but within, it knows the reality. Hence, Pakistan’s resolution on Afzal Guru, whose hanging was confirmed by the Supreme Court and executed by the Indian government.

The resolution was viewed as an affront on India by millions of electors or stakeholders in our democracy. Sensing their mood, the elected ones showcased their intent in snubbing Pakistan with a counter-resolution asserting that "Jammu and Kashmir has been and shall always remain the integral part of India", that hanging of Afzal Guru.was an internal matter of India, and also that Afzal Guru was a part of the conspiracy hatched in Pakistan and sponsored by Pakistani establishment that saw attack on Parliament. Isn't there some inherent contradiction in our approach?

The Tamil Angle
 
Now, consider the government's stand on Sri Lanka's approach in dealing with remnants of LTTE, which was a proscribed outfit in India till it existed in force. The island nation's government has been accused of committing war crimes on the surrendered members of LTTE and the Tamil population of the Elam region. It is a serious human rights issue of international importance. But, it is happening within the sovereign boundaries of Sri Lanka and hence, an internal matter of that country. But then, the population involved is Tamil, which evokes emotional appeal across the international waters in an Indian state.

Tamil Nadu is under AIADMK rule while DMK is in opposition and so, quite naturally it feels the pulse of Tamil people's emotion and anger. The same DMK has been a partner in all crimes with other UPA partners at the centre. It could easily dictate the matters vis-a-vis India's southern neighbour in past nine years. But, in the wake of Italian marine goof up, better sense has started prevailing over the UPA government. So, after going far ahead of expressing concern over human rights' issue in Sri Lanka, the Manmohan Singh government has finally decided to see whether antagonizing the island nation is in India's favour given the Chinese propensity in the region.

If India genuinely felt that Pakistan's National Assembly's resolution on  Afzal was an attack on India's sovereignty, can it forget the same principle in dealing with Sri Lanka simply because DMK is part of the ruling coalition? And, if India can interfere with Sri Lanka (to safeguard its strategic interest) why can't Pakistan do same with India? Also, why should India choose/ pick the nation with which it has to interfere; simply put, why does India choose not to apply pressure on Maldieves, Italy, Nepal or Bangladesh for that matter to safeguard its strategic interests, while it goes on to interfere with an essentially (going by India's own definition) internal matter of Sri Lanka?

The present politico-diplomatic-strategic state of affairs of the UPA 2.0 points to utter indecision. The government seems to be so indecisive that it has failed to realize that indecision was its earlier decision. Under the circumstances, can India be taken seriously on the matters of external affairs, outside or within?

(Un)happy International Women's Day

March 8^th every year seems to be a day of rhetoric by people of all shades; politicians, activists, journalists, students, teachers and the rest of the educated lot. They all swear to give equality in all sense of terms to women, promise to stand for their so-called legitimate rights, give themselves to oppose all attempts of stereotyping women, fight female infanticide, female foeticide, and most of all ending domestic violence and cruelty against women. The very next day, all the beautiful signs are wiped out from all the places. Even the traces are hard to find. Every year cases of violation of the body of women registered and recorded on March 8^th are forgotten the next day. So, the International Women’s Day is an occasion of mere rhetoric.

Reading the Indian Express only a couple of days ago, I found a columnist bringing to notice the practice of bride abduction in many parts of the globe taking Kyrgyzstan as its epicentre. The narration goes like this, “Just imagine your daughter is coming home from college. A gang of men suddenly grabs her, forcibly tosses her into a car even as she screams, cries, throws about her hands and legs, tries to bite her abductors, but she's overpowered. There's a bridegroom at the other end waiting to marry her. Marriage (Wedding) preparations complete with ceremonial rituals are ready to be performed, family and friends invited to enjoy the wedding reception. Only the bride is missing. So a girl is kidnapped and brought to fit the role. It's a bona fide marriage where she'll become part of a respected family, but she's given no choice.”

This is a traditional ‘ritual’ in Kyrgyizstan, where it is called Ala Kachuu, which is illegal and punishable according to law. But, none are ever prosecuted and sentenced. “NGOs working there figure ala achuu is seen in 68-75 per cent of weddings.” The author goes on to ask, how does above story strike you? This Kyrgyz ritual certainly reminds me of ancient Indian practice glorified by DDLJsque Rukmini Haran (Abduction of Rukmini) by Krishna, emulated by his disciple Arujna and carried out by thousands of others. (Raavan was an exception for he abducted a woman but did not force her to cohabit or marry.)

This is still going on in India with unsuspecting brides being lured, threatened, abducted from Jharkhand, Orissa, Assam and other economically backward states and forced to marry female foeticidal, female infanticidal brethren from Haryana, Punjab and some other parts. The Indian Express columnist was exasperated, anguished, so am I (and so are probably few millions others from the billion plus nation).


According to the United Nations Organization and UN Women, 7 out of 10 women around the world are beaten, raped, abused or mutilated in their lifetimes. However, no woman perhaps can say that she was never violated. Violence against women is universal, prevalent in all countries and settings.  According to the International Labour Organization women and girls comprise 98 percent of all people suffering ‘forcible exploitation’. 

Shockingly, this state of women on the planet earth is despite ‘the best efforts of the member states of the UNO’. Today, 187 countries out of 193 UN members have ratified the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. Besides, the United Nations Security Council now recognizes sexual violence as a deliberate tactic of war.  Notwithstanding UN’s sensitivity, more than 60 crore women live in countries that do not recognize domestic violence as a crime at all. 

So, on the rhetorical day in 2013, when the earth is striving to expand its sphere of influence beyond its own galaxy and when the question of gender equality and sense of gender sensitivity lie buried in the proverbial dark ages, I wish everyone a very happy International Women’s Day!

Bharat Bandh... Where?

Today is Bharat Bandh. I don't know where!!! One of my friends said that he wanted to find out as to in which police station Bharat is Bandh!!!! (भारत बंद है, न जाने किस थाने में? ढूंढ़ने जा रहा हूँ) Meanwhile, on serious note, I would like to tell all those, who were as 'uneducated' as I on this issue, that all the major trade unions have called this shutdown against the policies of the UPA government.

It is a two-day shutdown and strike called by 11 registered trade unions, cutting across party lines. The are protesting against the 'anti-people' policies of the Manmohan Singh government. These all trade unions feel that constant rise in prices of almost all commodities, poor implementation of labour laws and disinvestment in PSUs and relaxed norms for FDI in various sectors are the blows that the present UPA government has unleashed on the masses. 

The trade unions have also demanded that pensions for everyone, removal of ceiling on bonus and provident fund benefits be provided to every worker. And, surprisingly, besides trade unions affiliated to the Left and pro-BJP, Bharat Mazdoor Sangh, the pro-Congress INTUC is also supporting and  participating in the Bharat Bandh. 

Rape Shocker: Death or Justice?

As the chorus grows for death penalty for the perpetrators of the latest gang-rape shocker from Delhi, I decided to ponder upon the subject one more time. And, this time, in the form of a write up. I have been trying to understand and analyse the state of affairs surrounding such an act. Too many things are hitting my brains and I felt, at least a couple of times, that cranium would burst as it was impossible to bear the agony (that my nerve cells carry in perhaps millions of directions within my physiological system).

The paramedical student’s is one of the most brutal cases of rape that I have come to know about. But at the same time, I am reminded of various other cases, that might not have been as violent but certainly not less damaging either in spirit or effect. I would like to mention two such cases.

In the first case, a ten month old infant girl was raped by a mid-twenty youth while in another case an octogenarian woman was forced to go through the hell by another twenty-like youth. Both these incidents occurred in Delhi. The 23-year old student was raped several times by several people and thrashed with iron rod, which was inserted inside her body damaging the most important portions of her entrails. Even if she survives, she wouldn't be able to taste solid food ever in her bruised life.

I cannot fathom of the psychological damage that this par-animist act has brought upon the aspiring physiotherapist. But, alongside, my mind also gets back to the ten-month old infant and the 82-year old woman. There plight went unnoticed. 

Understanding Rape

For many, rape is an act of sex forced upon a woman. For media, it’s news, sensational or otherwise. The Oxford Dictionary defines it as a crime, typically committed by a man, forcing another person to have sexual intercourse with the offender against her will. Is the practical meaning of rape is just a grouping of these many words? Can you have a full stop to it like that?

Rape, actually, is violation of a woman/ person. I hope, you understand and agree. Under India’s constitutional scheme, it is a violation of the right to life as guaranteed by article 21.

Legally, rape, in India, is defined as an act of penile penetration by a man of the vagina of a woman without her (valid) consent or consent obtained under threat or allurement or by deceit. (IPC section 375, after a couple of amendments and explanations forwarded by the judiciary.) Indian laws don’t have specific provisions dealing with rape of a person, who is not a woman, non-penile penetration (penetration by an object) or non-vaginal penetration (mouth). However, the present shocker points to the need for such a specific provision. The victim was raped and forced to have unnatural sex, according to police, with one or more of the offenders.

I believe, as a society, India is yet to fully comprehend rape in order to reduce the number or eliminate it (utopia) by means of laws.

Punishment

All the rape case convicts are liable for rigorous imprisonment not less than seven years and extending upto life imprisonment for period mentioned by the court. Court can award a lesser sentence, if it feels suitable. I presume that the court wouldn't come to this conclusion in the Delhi gang rape case.

Now, the clamour is getting louder for death penalty for the rapists. People have come out in thousands demanding stringent action and severest of punishment for the rapists. But, there are a few other issues that need to be looked upon and thought about. Suppose, people’s agitation on Anna model gets the government bring out a bill in Parliament providing death penalty (which would certainly come under rarest of the rare category) for the rapists, will it serve justice? Even if the bill is enacted, given the BJP's support, will it stop or reduce rape being committing on women? Answer, probably, is NO.

Prescription

Given the pace at which our justice delivery system functions, we cannot reduce the number of crimes leave alone the heinous crimes like rape. The present case would be heard by a fast track court. So, we can expect a decision in next three to four years. Then, the matter may land up in the Delhi High Court and then possibly in the Supreme Court. No one can deny the rapists, as proven even by the trial court the right to appeal in the higher courts of law. Hence, in any case when this gang rape case sees a full stop, nothing less than half-decade would have passed and the same bunch of Anna type protesters would have forgotten the case, and the same media would then be harping on the old songs to remind us of the trauma that the girl (I hope, she survives), her friend and their families suffered. Would it be a true justice done to the case or the victim even if it is a death penalty? Would the verdict be a deterrent for would-be rapists? I doubt. Leave aside the number of girls, women and infants, who may become new victims of the old crime.

Justice delayed is justice denied, goes the old saying. It is true at least in the cases of rape. More than 900 cases of rape are being heard in the Delhi High Court itself. Think about the entire nation. It is also a reflection on police’s (in)efficiency in proving or failing to prove whether an accused is guilty. So, the earnest need of the hour is the overhauling of the judiciary and the police system. Simply put, the nation needs police and judicial reforms more than anything else. At the same time, good parenting and excellent school education, especially of boys should be given the top priority. These prescriptions may sound too mild in the surcharged anti-rape environment, but no other steps would make the daughters, the sisters, the mothers, the girlfriends and wives of ours safe in years to come in this country.

But, till then all the police forces across the nation will have to take heart and lesson from the Delhi Police as to how not to overlook the regular policing so that the rules and regulations are complied by, and also how to act fast and nab the accused after such a crime has been committed. And, also till then Anna-model agitation must continue to exert pressure on the lawmakers because it is only they, who can turn the mountains of police and judiciary into wheels of justice.

2G Auction: Think before you criticize CAG

The auction bomb of 2G spectrum for telecommunications stands practically defused now. The two-day auction of the 2G mobile phone spectrum has proved to be a flop show measured even on the government’s yardstick. Notwithstanding that the UPA government wanted the auction to be a flop show, the establishment is surprised itself with the outcome of the auction. But, it is unhappy for another reason.

The UPA government had its hopes pinned on the auction amount to meet its target of keeping the fiscal deficit at 5.3% of the GDP in 2012-13. It expected to earn Rs 40,000 crore the least from the auction of 2G spectrum, but it could not fetch even Rs 9.5 thousand crore. Nonetheless, the UPA government stands vindicated on the presumptive loss figure of Rs 1.76 lakh crore as calibrated by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India in 2010. It has always maintained that the CAG’s figures were wrong.

The above paragraph explains why the government has been rather circumspect in responding to the low earning from the auction. But, the attack on CAG’s authenticity is only round the corner. It may come from either the ministers or the Congress party or pro-government media houses. However, we need to think before criticizing the CAG over the poor interest shown by the bidders in the auction of 2G spectrum licences. Too much water has flown under the bridge since 2G spectrum bomb exploded some two years ago after a CAG report.

The CAG calibrated the loss due to government’s policy for not opting bidding to allocate 2G spectrum based on the market situations and realities of 2008; and, the CAG did its calculations in 2010. But, since then, the market’s concept and preferences vis-à-vis future of mobile phone communications in India have undergone a great change. 2G spectrum is now a thing of the past and future gains cannot be big when 3G technology is already there and 4G is creating a new buzz. The same companies, which either bid at a lower price or stayed away from the auction, may (definitely) have behaved differently in 2008. And, the fierce competition would have been witnessed had the same policy been adopted in 2008, giving the same UPA government handsome amount of money to fight its ever worrying fiscal deficit.

Some people in the UPA ladder understand this conundrum genuinely. This may be the other explanation why the government has not gone out lambasting the CAG like it did in the recent past after the auction of 2G spectrum. Moreover, the low bidding prices are being attributed to perceptively high base price set for different circles in the auction.

Of all the 14 circles put on auction, mega-circles of Delhi and Mumbai attracted no bids at all. Interestingly, Delhi and Mumbai account for more than 40% of the total earning from the mobile phone communications. The base price for these two circles was Rs 14,000 crore for 5MHz of 2G spectrum. Moreover, none of the companies, which took part in bidding, bid for pan-India spectrum for which the reserve price was set at Rs 14,000 crore. It further reflects telecom companies’ mindset towards Indian mobile phone communication market.

So, before concluding that the CAG had wrongly and deliberately calibrated the loss figure (at Rs 1.76 lakh crore), must bear in mind the market realities of 2008.