Narendra Modi: Advani, BJP, RSS, ideology or power play?

There are too many of readable, non-readable, absurd, brilliant and stupid write ups on Narendra Modi being formally anointed the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP, understandably well supported and approved by its remaining two alliance partners. I am only putting an extra piece on the garbage vomited by the intellectuals, though I am not one of them.

The BJP has done what anyways seemed inevitable for the survival of the party, keeping whatever stature it has intact. Narendra Modi has long outgrown the veterans and equally eager so-called national leaders within the BJP. People don't connect with LK Advani anymore. Sachin Tendulkar may still have some fan following but Advani has lost most, if not all, of them to his own protege from his home state. But, much like the great from the game of cricket, the political stalwart of the BJP fails to realize, recognize and admit that he is much much past his prime. At 86, Advani can not afford to harbour a dream to lead an India, whose average age may be some 50 years less.

Is Advani so naive to understand this simple thing? Is ambition of the man be so overwhelming that he can risk wiping out all the good that he may have done in his long career and life? Logic fails to answer the question. May be, 'ambitious' people think, feel and do differently. But, let's suppose for a moment, that Advani realizes this. Then, why is he doing what he has been doing? Why is this posturing, if it is bound to be doomed? Is there really any ideological battle going on? Is the old man trying to correct the wrongs that he committed in his prime for his prime ambition? Is the old man trying to save India's pluralistic identity, which he once attempted to destroy? Or, as many have put it, is he simply misjudging everything? The answers to these question will paint a clear picture. But, there are no easy answers.

Let's try to find a couple of those difficult answers on our own. There has been a non-separable relationship between the RSS and the BJP. They are two, but they are one. However, the two patriarchs of the BJP, AB Vajpayee and LK Advani tried to restrict the influence of the RSS in the business of governance when the two were at the helm of affairs for not less than six years. Vajpayee-Advani duo challenged the authority of the RSS in governance. 

When the BJP-led NDA came to power, the RSS thought to have a free sway but the two formidable leaders of the BJP kept them at an arm's distance on more than one occasion. This was incredible those days considering the historical relation of two organizations. Advani once proclaimed that governance does not fall in the realm of ideology, it is carried out on the basis of ground realities (you may read, coalition politics). The point is the father organization, the RSS was kept at a distance from the corridors of power while its children were managers of power.

After Vajpayee's health took him practically out of question, Advani has been waging a lone battle against the attempted coup by the RSS in the BJP. But, the emergence of Modi as a development man, who connects well with the aspirations of the youth despite the taint of communal riots gave the RSS a window to stage a forceful comeback in the courtyard of BJP.

But, this could not have been possible without the active support and calculated moves by Modi, who also saw a window of opportunity for himself with Vajpayee out of question, Advani being on the wrong side of 80s, and none of the next generation leaders at the national level having popular support. So, Modi quickly mended his ways to patch up with the RSS lest Shivraj Singh Chauhan made claim to the national politics. Brand Modi picked up at right time. And, the RSS got a foothold in the door that was threatening to close on its face- of course, not immediately.

If this is true, as I sense it to be, the BJP along with Advani has lost its war against the RSS. The independence of the BJP may have been compromised with in the elevation of Modi.

The RSS could serve well as a pressure group to any government, but it if the BJP, which senses groundswell in its favour across the Hindi heartland, gives the RSS a handle, it is not good for pluralistic model of governance in India. The result may be more damaging as it may give fodder to the hungry jehadis. Modi, obviously, has a tough task at hand even if we presume that he will take the BJP back to power in the two most coveted blocks in the country.

Delhi gangrape case: Nirbhaya, December 16 and after

The verdict of the fast track court is welcome as the four accused have been expectedly held guilty for raping the para-medical student on December 16, last year. Fifth accused died in Tihar jail while the juvenile accused was pronounced guilty and given a three-year sentence in rehabilitation/remand home.

While the verdict must be hailed for it came out in only a week to nine months’ time, it must not blind people’s vision to the spate of crime in Delhi in the past eight or nine months since the 23-year old girl was brutalized on the city road in a public vehicle and left to die. Her friend survived the incident.

Delhi continues to be an unsafe city for women. It has witnessed 239.26% rise in rape cases and 495% increase in molestation cases. This shows that there has been no improvement in this city being unsafe for women even eight months after the Nirbhaya incident.

In 2012, 433 rape cases were recorded in Delhi whereas till 15 August this year, 1,036 cases had already been registered in Delhi. Similarly, cases of molestation have witnessed a rise of 495.01%. Last year, 381 cases of molestation were registered which shot up to 2,267 in the past eight months.

The figures are telling and there is an urgent need to fix responsibility for the spate of crime against women in Delhi. The police had claimed to be enforcing a slew of measures to make the city safer for women. But, it is quite apparent that all the measures announced by the Delhi Police were taken only in files not on ground.

The measures announced by police including new women helpline numbers, creation of women help desk in police stations, establishment of all women police stations and liaison with rape crisis intervention centres have actually created confusion because there has been no coordination amongst the various cells put in place for the purpose.

There are four helpline numbers operational in the city. It is expected that a woman in trouble would choose from one among the four numbers, 100, 1096, 1091 and 181 when she is in trouble. But, if a woman is in the situation as that of the para-medical student, would she be able to make a call? If someone dials a wrong number she is asked to dial to the other number, herself.

While there is an urgent need to fix responsibility for this state of affairs, the Delhi Police lacks adequate number of personnel especially women police personnel. Women officials in Delhi Police are overworked. They have their own issues that hamper providing safety to women in the city.

Contrary to the government’s reply to Parliament on the working conditions for women police personnel in Delhi police, the women officials have no separate room to stay at night in case they work till late or are in the night-shift; they don’t get dropped home even at odd hours; women officials also complain that they do not get enough leave.

If the police personnel work under such condition, they cannot be expected to come to the rescue of a victim of any crime. Moreover, in Delhi itself, a policewoman complained of molestation and was, in turn, told to forget the incident and move over. This is nothing but a crude reminder of the gender disparity and insensitivity within the police establishment and society at large. This mindset is to be fought against alongside taking some real slew of measures ensuring speedy delivery of justice, which intrinsically calls for police and judicial reforms. Some may argue that if the latter happens, the former will definitely follow. But, till that happens, the social and media outrage against cases of crime against women must continue.

Can a person compel you to hate him?

There is a Sanjay Jha, speaking for Congress on almost all the TV news channel for a couple of months or so. His arguments, to my mind, can at the best be called logically illogical. To use olden days' term, his arguments fall under the category of 'Kutark'. But, he has been so influential that I have started keeping off myself from Times Now's Newshour debates. Boss, there should be a limit to 'patient hearing of stupidity'. But, Mr Arnab Goswami has made him a hot cake for TV channels.
 
Sanjay Jha's latest argument in defence of his party and coterie colleague (and hitherto sensible) Shakeel Ahmad's comment on the birth of Indian Mujaheedin and BJP brand of communalism was so absurd that I have started thinking whether the grand old party has really become intellectually bankrupt! One of the arguments put forth by Jha in Sakee Ahmad's defence on NDTV was that if Ishrat and three people were on a mission to kill Mr Narendra Modi, it was because of latter's role in 2002 Gujarat riots. I was aghast. The reason is this:
 
If Modi was to be (justifiably) killed because he persecuted muslims in Gujarat, then think of the assassinations of Rajiv Gandhi, Indira Gandhi and Mahatma Gandhi. Commense sense based on Sanjay Jha's logic would tell us that Rajiv Gandhi was killed because he persecuted Tamils, Indira Gandhi was killed because she persecuted sikhs and above all Mahatma Gandhi was killed because he persecuted hindus! Friends, can I still listen to Jhaology?

Food Security Ordinance: Good politics, bad economics

The ambitious food for all scheme as envisaged under the Food Security Bill is well on the course of becoming a reality by force of a law. The President has promulgated the ordinance to the same effect. Now, it has to be passed by both the houses of Parliament during the monsoon session, scheduled to commence of July 26. Else, the ordinance will lapse. Politically, it is the best shot fired by corruption stung United Progressive Alliance government aiming the next general election. But, financially, the tax payers shall have to cough up between 1.25-1.90 lakh crores of rupees annually to meet the cost.

The Constitution says that the President can promulgate an ordinance if circumstances require taking immediate action on a certain issue. Except politics, nothing can explain the urgency for promulgamation of food ordinance. Now, that it is more than obvious that ordinance is constitutional in letter but essentially political in spirit, let's examine the circumstances which forced government (or, constitutionally speaking satisfied the President) take by-pass route. 

The food security bill has been making enough noises since 2011 when the National Advisory Council approved the proposed law. The politics over the bill has been intense popularizing the contents of the bill thereby helping the UPA's objective of dissemination of information that the bill is aimed at the largest constituency of voters-- the poor. All the UPA constituents are in favour of the bill becoming law with minor differences of opinion vis-a-vis modality and strategy. The BJP led NDA has spoken in different voices but importantly venting out their opposition to the bill. The Left and the fringe or life support players for the UPA are not in favour of the bill in its present form. 

The revised version, the Food Security Bill, 2013 was introduced in Parliament on March 22 earlier this year during the budget session. Nothing meaningful happened amid chaos and pandemonium over various issues of corruption and resultant mud slinging. This seems to be a regular dose of politics in India. Such circumstances do not create problem of immediacy in Indian politics. So, what were those circumstances that 'satisfied the President' to invoke Article 123 of the Constitution? 123 of politics? Perhaps yes.

The lok sabha election is just a stone's throw away and the Congress-led government has become a synonym of corruption in public and popular perception, to say the least. And, perception decides the fate of electoral politics. Over four years of policy paralysis at the centre, duly reflected in most of the states, has demolished India's growth theory, which has, anyways, been jobless growth adjusted to population growth.

Scams after scams, scandals involving union ministers and ruling dispensation's flip-flops at dealing with corruption and opposition to corruption have given the BJP-led opposition a realistic chance to staging a come-back. To cash in on the favourable wave, the RSS-BJP combine has brought a leader, who suits them the most, to the forefront. Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi is controversial and perceived as Hindu hardliner, although he does not talk about Hindutva, the Ram Temple and Uniform Civil Code ever. His image is that of a development oriented man and politician. He is also capable of tiding over the infighting in party. And, above all, the Congress fears that he could be divisive when it comes to electioneering and voting denting its chances further. Now, it is expedient for the Congress to counter all the counter-UPA perception and moves. The food for all law is one weapon that can repair the dents in Congress's body politic.

Save some breath for economics of food for all scheme. There is a genuine concern among informed masses and experts alike that food security scheme will push fiscal deficit further. According to some agencies, this scheme can widen the gap by 0.5% this financial year itself. However, the government does not believe. (Obviously, it can not in the election year.) The finance ministry has earmarked 77, 740 crores of rupees for food subsidy with an additional allocation of 10, 000 crores of rupees towards incremental cost due to food bill. Thus, by managing over 87, 000 crores of rupees for food scheme, the finance ministry hopes to keep the fiscal deficit within the targetted range of 4.8% of the gross domestic product.

Interestingly, there are other figures suggesting that the UPA government is either mistaken or has become an Ostrich. According to government's own estimate the food security scheme would cost the national exchequer around 1.25 lakh crore rupees annually. Other estimates put this cost between 1.75-1.90 lakh crore rupees. This entails a darker financial future of the nation. It simply means that the earning population will have to pay this much of money in the form of additional taxes as the government is already in huge deficit. Now, see this in a double window screen, wherein the second window shows that the food for all scheme will be routed through the Public Distribution System, which is, at its best, just 45% efficient. This means, the earning population will have to cover up for this 65% leakage as well. This can not be good economics.

But, we are in the election year, when populist politics prevails over all kinds of prudence. So, the food security ordinance becomes an exigency especially when information is oozing out that the election commission may notify the lok sabha polls on September 22. The UPA government does not have much time left to correct the distorting perception among the voters. It could not have waited for the Monsoon session, which would otherwise not see any debate and passage of the food bill. Obviously, the Constitution has remedial provisions for such circumstances. 

Now, the Congress can proudly tell the nation (read voters) that it has implemented the education for all scheme, job for all scheme, information for all scheme, housing for all scheme and the most importantly food for all scheme. So, the people are secure on all the fronts. Let the opposition indulge in communal, developmental, dalit and other divisive politics, the UPA can go ahead with its poll preparation. If it damages economic health of the nation, only the next government will have to answer.

Rupee On Slide: Shouldn't India Worry?

Rupee is on a slide, whose base is out of sight at this moment. The Indian currency is floating in a dangerous zone around 60 against a US dollar for quite some time sending all kinds of negative vibes in the economy of India. Though, it has made Indian exports cheaper but it has not served particularly well. Most of all, it has shaken the lives of people despite credit rating agency signalling improving financial health of India.

The immediate reason for the slide of rupee is the apparent revival of the US’s economy. The dollar has gained immense strength in recent weeks. It has touched a three year high at 84.30 on the Dollar Index. It has forced many investors to even prefer dollar to gold.

And, since the Euro-zone has again plunged in the crisis after showing signs of revival, dollar has been the rallying point. The international market is under the psyche of capital preservation and the US dollar is a safe option as it is gaining strength on the account of US’s economic revival. Just a few months ago when both the US and the European Union were reeling under recession, rupee seemed stable but the flip-flop of Euro-zone and strong signals of recovery in the US market has tilted the balance in favour of US dollar and against Indian rupee.

Domestically, the economic decision making has suffered at the hands of political indecision at large. High inflation, huge trade deficit, worsening growth indicators in industry and agriculture and worrying balance of payment at current price have pushed the country into a very uncomfortable zone. Schemes like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme have weakened the national economy. The proposed food for all scheme aggravates the fear only.

Generally, a weakening currency helps the country to increase its exports leaps and bounds, but India faces the problem of massive outflow of forex reserve on the account of import of oil, gold, fertilizers and coal for power. Gold is the second to crude oil only in draining nation’s forex reserve. Meanwhile, import of nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizers have has increased by over 30% in past couple of years. Import of coal for power has doubled during the same period. The only relief for India is the declining prices of crude oil in the international markets, which have helped prevent further depreciation of rupee.

India’s balance of trade is tilted against it, with its major trading partner the European Union’s economy is in tatters. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are no better. And, with China, India’s trade deficit is too huge for to think of turning the table for years to come. There is an urgent need for India to deepen its structural reforms to bridge widening gap between import and export else the economy would be heading towards peril. The combination of increase in imports, reduction in exports, rising current account deficit and uncomfortable level of fiscal deficit has impacted the health of rupee badly despite government’s claim and assurances.

It is high time that the government and the RBI take some long term as well as short term concrete measures to discourage import of gold and possibly oil. At the same time, combined efforts must be made to encourage export. This would create an environment of sluggish demand for dollar against rupee for international trade. A stronger rupee would definitely help increasingly import dependent consumer market in India and millions of households.

Manmohan Sounds Poll Bugle, Will People Listen?

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh presented his government's report card on Wednesday on completion of four years of staying in power. Adding his previous regime, the UPA government is in power for nine years. One thing is clear that no prime minister can be honest enough to do genuine critical analysis of his own government. Those were different days when former prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru came down heavily on his own ministers following allegations of nepotism and corruption. Now, it's all about cover-up business and making bold (at times foolishly bold) claims of one's own achievements. Manmohan Singh seemed one such exposed politician on Wednesday.

The Prime Minister chose to focus on four areas, that were key to him in patting his back. His "four key achievements: one, the improved performance of the economy; two, making the growth process more inclusive; three, delivery of better governance and better delivery of welfare and development programmes; and, four, improved relations with a changing and challenging  world" are now public. Singh insisted that his government has "taken our country forward on all these four fronts in the nine years".

At the face of it, the claims look erroneous. The claim of fast GDP growth does not hold water in the face of all reports of increasing disparity among the populace. The constantly high inflation especially of food articles in past more than four years betrays bad financial and monetary management of the country. The last year's GDP growth rate of less than five percent was attributed to a global phenomenon. The Prime Minister cited China's slowdown as collateral proof and also recalled a lower average growth rate during NDA regime. But, the economist-turned-politician failed to notice that India did not grow at the rate at which China grew and also not on the similar fundamentals of economy. Secondly, many economists believed that the first two years of UPA's nine-year rule benefitted from the policies of NDA regime. Moreover, can the government justify one failure with another apparent failure?

Manmohan Singh could have done well speaking the truth behind stagnating economy. He should have explained why his government is suffering from policy paralysis, why several infrastructural projects have been stalled, why investment projects are not taking off, why corruption has become a rule in his government and most importantly, why governance has been receding for four-five years.
 

The government's claim of making growth more inclusive is debatable. Many communities in India are sulking under the present regime. Tribals in the east and the north-east feel deeply alienated. It finds expression in the spreading network of naxal insurgency. The naxalism has successfully found foot soldiers in Assam for the first time since it started in late 1960s in West Bengal. The only state where naxal violence has been curbed is Andhra Pradesh but the state is embroiled in nothing less than what could be termed as a 'mini civil-war' with Telangana simmering to have its separate identity and Royalseema hoping to gain some lateral benefits. There is none to deny that Telangana has been mismanaged by the Manmohan Singh government.

Singh's third claim of better governance and ensuring welfare of people can be easily reviewed in the chorus of 2G, Coal, Defence, MNREGS and many other scams. Most of the scams were examined and verified by the Comptroller and Auditor General's office, which came under sharp criticism from the government. Thankfully, the judicial decisions have not gone against the claims of the CAG. Now, the same constitutional body's independence is reportedly being compromised with the UPA's decision to appoint defence secretary Shashi Kant Sharma as the next CAG of India. Sharma will be examining and auditing the deals that he cleared as the defence secretary as part of the UPA government's machinery. Combine this with reports suggesting government's neglect of intelligence gathering resulting in terror attacks climaxed in 2008-killings in Mumbai, and one will get a scary picture of governance and compromising condition of the welfare of people.
 

The welfare schemes of the government, chiefly under the right to education, the right to employment and proposed schemes under right to food and the right to health are all fraught with serious economic danger. The right to eduction has not helped improvement in quality education. The need of the hour is not simply bringing kids to school but to empower them with quality and competitive education. Only then will the teeming millions can take on the dominating world economies. The drop out rates and declining quality of education must be wrest immediately. For this to achieve the prime minister and his ministers should have worked in close coordination with the state governments but the politics prevailed over good 'welfare' sense.

Right to employment through MNREGS has only encouraged corruption and eaten up tax payers' money. Food security and health bills will aggravate the situation only. These two politically ambitious schemes will in all probability fall flat as there is an absolute lack of adequate administrative machinery to deliver the goods. The end result will be fleecing the tax payers, which include even those who may be the targetted beneficiary.

Finally, the Prime Minister feels that India's relation with the comity of nations has improved. This holds true only if one excludes everything except business. The neighbours constantly keep teasing India. China has made at least four serious incursions into Indian territories during UPA's rule, the latest being in Despang area, wherein Chinese forced India to compromise on border security vigil. Pakistan has not shown any intent of assuaging India's concerns. Bangladesh does not shy away from challenging India.

Nepal keeps pricking it and uses China threat to counter its southern neighbour. Sri Lanka has openly contested India's rights in the sea waters. India too has failed to grab the opportunities to cement ties with the island nation in recent past paving way for greater cooperation between Sri Lanka and China. India remained practically a mute spectator while Maldives plunged into a chaos. India has faced many diplomatic embarrassments at the hands of Italy, Argentina, Iran and a host of other nations in past nine years, a period which the Prime Minister chose to reflect upon. The only bright diplomatic spot that is visible on the UPA's face if nuclear deal with the US and subsequent approval by the nuclear suppliers group. But, the deal is still controversial and can be judged only in longer term.

Considering that the UPA-2 has entered into its final year, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's claims may not go down well with people, who can see through the veil of numbers and phrases. The UPA has sounded the poll bugle, it is now time for people to prepare for voting next year.

Two Years of 'Maa, Maati, Maanush' and Mamata

Maverick leader Mamata Banerjee completed two years as the chief minister of West Bengal after ending thirty five years of communist rule. This is not a long enough time to see the results of the change. But, it is not so short a period to not to throw up signs of improvement. Sadly, both the results and signs are missing from the spectre of hope in West Bengal.

Mamata Banerjee made the Trinamool Congress the force that it is chiefly on two counts; one, the obsolete model of governance by the Left Front and second, the rising aspiration of people in the state. Two developmental conflicts at Singur and Nandigram proved to be the point of critical mass for a revolution like change of power in West Bengal. On both the occasions, Mamata Banerjee gave the call, 'Maa, Maati, Maanush'. But, it seems she has forgotten every thing that she promised during her campaign for ascendancy.

In the very first year of her rule, Mamata faced one the most embarrassing and shameful incidents when a couple of hospitals in the state turned into mortuaries. More than a hundred infants died in the incubators in hospitals like BC Roy memorial and others. Mamata Banerjee first chose to ignore the deaths, followed it up by terming the deaths as drama and finally blamed it on the previous left front government. The 'Maa' of the slogan was left totally betrayed.

Mamata rose to the chair of chief minister in West Bengal using the ladders of Singur and Nandigram. Tata Motors' manufacturing unit was to come up at Singur, where land acquisition had been done, rather controversially. Mamata and the leaders of the Bhoomi Ucched Pratirodh Committee believed so the least. At Nandigram, Salim Group of Indonesia was to establish a chemical factory. Both industrial employment oriented projects were sacrificed at the altar of Mamata's politics. When she sworn in as the chief minister, many believed that an amicable and pro-people solution would be found for the two 'problems'. Nothing of that sort has happened till date.

At both Singur and Nandigram, two kinds of farmers were involved. One, who gave their land willingly and two, those who claimed that they did so under coercion or allurement. In any case, they have not got their land back even though the two projects have long been shelved. The matters are caught in legal tangles rendering many farmers on the verge of beggary. Mamata's promises to 'Maati and Maanush' fell flat. Her government did launch a scheme to meet the food requirements of the people of the affected region but the well known inefficiency of the public distribution system has not served any good.

Mamata Banerjee always accused the Left Front government of carrying out political murders and silencing opposition, thus denying the right to freedom of expression. She seems to have mastered the art herself. Political murders have only upped in West Bengal's interior. Her attacks on the intelligentsia have come under sharp criticism and condemnation nationwide. Even Mahashweta Devi has chosen to part ways with the TMC chief.

Corruption is only getting institutionalized in the state. Saradha scam and company's links with Mamata Banerjee and her party leaders are too well known to be mistaken. Amidst such adversity, never has been seen the leader that the people of West Bengal expected Mamata Banerjee to be as the leader of 'Poribortan'. She has always been found wanting.

In the midst of such a gloomy affair, the latest economic data gives some hope, with state's finance minister, Amit Mitra striving hard to modernize the economics of the state. The state has registered over 7.5% GDP growth rate in the last financial year. Still, employment generation has not been enough in two years, the agricultural production is not rising at an inspiring rate, manufacturing is yet to get a push and services have grown at less than 10% rate, which is not sufficient for a state like West Bengal with large and extremely dense population base.

Now that Mamata Banerjee's rule has entered into its third year, the chief minister can not afford to remain indifferent to the extent of being abusive in her approach to dealing with the problems of 'Maa, Maati, Maanush, which projected her to glory.

(I wrote it for merinews: http://www.merinews.com/article/west-bengal-two-years-of-maa-maati-maanush/15885821.shtml)